Showing posts with label WAG d-score ranking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WAG d-score ranking. Show all posts

Friday, 20 July 2012

D-score table for Team Final

After seeing a blog post showing some upgrades and not others, I'm going to make a stab at it myself. This table is all known and projected upgrades (ie. Musty has a switch ring on beam from a photo, that's 0.2!). At this point, not giving Romania a second amanar as that is pure speculation. (their other 6.5 is a Cheng).

BARS
China: 21
USA: 19.4
Romania: 18.2
Russia: 20.5
Result: China take an 0.5 difficulty lead, Russia just more than a point ahead of USA who are 1.2 ahead of Romania.

BEAM
China: 19.6
USA: 19.1
Romania: 19.8
Russia: 19.4
Result: Romania's beam lead not as impressive as thought, hmm. Of course, no execution taken into account, but still. 0.2 over China, who lead 0.2 over Russia...last is USA, interesting who are 0.3 behind.
Accumulative total: China: 40.6 USA 38.5 Romania: 38 Russia: 39.9  (China, Russia, USA, Romania)

VAULT
China: 18.1
USA: 19.5
Romania: 18.8
Russia: 19.5
Result: Of course USA and Russia tie here, but full scores would be different. Romania are an amanar behind, and China another 0.7 amanar worth behind that again.
Accumulative total: China 58.7 USA 58 Romania 56.8 Russia 59.4 (Russia, China, USA, Romania)

FLOOR
China: 18 OR 17.7 (Sui Lu's d-score was 5.7, new routine looks more difficult- giving her 6.0 and the 5.7)
USA: 18.8 OR 18.6 (Gabby or McKayla)
Romania: 19.4
Russia: 18.1
Result: Romania take a clear lead with hit connections on their upgrades, 0.6 over USA's highest, followed by a much closer Russia and China

TEAM TOTAL
China: 76.7 OR 76.4
USA: 76.8 OR 76.6
Romania: 76.2
Russia: 77.5

LEADERBOARD (using Sui Lu 6.0 and Gabby's floor)
Russia 77.5
USA -0.7
China -0.8
Romania -1.3

Very interesting though it does of course have to be taken with a pinch of salt because sloppy form and amanars have no bearing on this, nor do wobbles, falls, form breaks and missed connections. This is also showcasing all known upgrades, not just competed routines. The blog in question gave Russia 3 amanars, but Romania none and no Cheng and did not include Russian and Romanian known floor and beam upgrades, so Russia tied with USA and Romania had a huge point deficit. I think it's fairer to give everyone the upgrade benefit of the doubt.

EDIT: Russia and Romania DID showcase upgrades- Catalina's event finals beam dismount, Russian switch rings on beam, Komova's amanar are some. But both played it relatively safe, and Iordache's injury also affected Romania a lot. So the American d-scores are by and large spot on (some missed connections) but the rest are a bit topsy turvy.




Sunday, 15 July 2012

14 days to go! And some news

It's really flying by now! Apologies if this comes across as gloating but I am delighted that after suffering severe sleep deprivation watching Classics, Nationals and US Trials...I am in the same timezine as London! I also get to hear BBC commentary, pleasant AND informative.

Here is NBC's schedule.
http://www.nbcolympics.com/gymnastics/results-schedules/index.html
Here is the BBC's.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/2012/schedule-results/list/gymnastics-artistic

It's worth noting that BBC's prelims on Sunday have a 5 minute headstart on NBC's, though I doubt it will be significant stuff, just marching in or whatever and rosters.

London is in GMT. East coast American time is 5 HOURS behind. West coast times are 8 HOURS behind. I know that it is not really practical for people who are working to commence watching at 4.30AM etc. and that plenty of you will be avoiding the gymternet and waiting for the NBC tape delay in primetime. Please avoid this blog too while you're waiting! I am not going to liveblog as I don't want to miss anything. But I will have results and breakdowns and opinions etc. in between sessions. I'll put a spoiler alert in those post titles anyway. Just in case, as most of my readers are American!

Lais Souza of Brazil and Tatiana Nabieva of Russia are injured and both out, of the team and as alternate respectively. Brazil are a little bit screwed now, they've already lost Jade Barbosa and Daiane is past her prime, form is bad but wow she can still knock out the difficulty at 29! Nabieva is actually quite a good stand in. Russia don't have much of a back-up left, Sidorova is injured too. Bebs (I really can't spell her name) is suffering with her growth and certainly not at her best. This means Pavlova could take the alternate spot! Souza will probably be replaced by Ethiene Franco. Injury count is now at 9. Let's hope Marta doesn't break any! Romania seem to have the smartest approach in not burning out their athletes, everyone should learn from them.

AA d-score post is now updated. Huang Qiushang is well up there, but Vika has pretty much taken over from everyone. More pressure on Iordache to take all of her full upgrades. Anything can happen! In an interview with China's coaches it was said that Yao Jinnan has greatly improved her bars. This probably means that 7.2 bars are not just a rumour but more of a definite possiblity. Lots of amanaring going on. Rodionenko has stated he believes China will bring 3 amanars. WTF?? It really does seem like 1 and 2 DTY's. You just never know with China (or Russia, or Romania for that matter). Russia have upgraded their floors and beams nicely, with 3 amanars and that lovely bars advantage they are out for blood.

Mai Murakami is now training a triple twisting double layout. NOT on a competition floor, though it looks like it could be, she landed totally upright. This means she now has a double double on floor, a double layout, a triple full, a triple twisting double back and a triple twisting double layout. Well, has or is training. Let's not forget she has killer vaults lining up too. Drool.

A photo of Musty shows her doing a switch ring on beam. This ups her d-score by 0.2 meaning her total beats Komova at 26.1!


Tuesday, 10 July 2012

A look at start values UPDATED 25/7

Start values are in doubt for a few gymnasts, questionable upgrades, amanar possibilities, and fixing of routine connections not boding well for the SV (Jordyn's beam). Nevertheless, it is fun to see them and guess and surmise from them what the gymnast will bring to prelims. Albert at the all-around is doing a great job keeping track of d-scores, but only does the top 20 AA totals, and the top 20 on each, so a lot of the below are missing,

The known highest is Gabby. It's worth noting that her bars generally has a d-score of 6.5 or 6.4 in comp, must be a missed connection. Beam also is usually lower by more than a tenth. Romania's scores are varied, highest potential and highest in competition is shown.

Gabby Douglas, USA

Bars: 6.6
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.8

Jordyn blah blah beam in doubt

Jordyn Wieber, USA

Bars: 6.4
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.4 (currently)
Total: 25.5

Aly is right behind. Bars obviously dragging her down, she would beat the other two if she had even Jordyn's bars

Aly Raisman, USA

Bars: 5.9
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.4

Vika with an amanar brings huge difficulty. A DTY obviously hurts her bigtime. It is very very likely we will see the amanar anyway.Floor needs a boost, and that is definitely a possibility- 0.2 confirmed. Beam up by 0.2- WOW.

Viktoria Komova, Russia

Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.3
Beam: 6.5 UPDATED
Total: 26.3 with amanar, 25.6 with DTY

Larisa will beat them all d-score wise IF she performs all of her potential upgrades and connects them all AND has the amanar. We know she has an amanar, and we know she missed her connections on beam and floor at the Romanian meet. She is the most in question, but she can bring it. The first score is the potential, the second is the highest competed- either pre-upgrades or with missed connections

Larisa Iordache, Romania

Bars: 6.5, 6.1
Vault: 6.5, 5.8
Floor: 6.7, 6.4
Beam: 6.9, 6.7
Total: 26.6, highest possible. Lowest possible is 25. With amanar but using other lowest scores- 25.7. Without amanar but using other highest scores- 25.9, the highest of everyone.

Either way, Larisa is a huge threat that shouldn't be dismissed. 26.6 would be awesome, 26 itself is probably the most realistic IN competition.

Yao Jinnan won bronze in the 2011 Worlds AA, even counting a fall from beam. Without the fall, she would have won and ended the controversy between Jordyn and Vika. Injured this year on a DTY, she is still expected to be a strong contender. However, it is highly unlikely she will bring the creme de la creme, the amanar.

Yao Jinnan, China

Bars: 6.8  7.2 rumoured!
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.4  6.6 full potential UPDATE
Floor: Cannot find d-score. Her routine from worlds was a 6.0. The London test event looked watered down. We'll give her the benefit of the doubt with a 6.0
Total: Assuming 6.0 on floor and beam update, 25.2  25.6 with rumoured 7.2 bars and beam update

Aliya has been eclipsed by others, but is by no means out of the running. Her vault is unknown, she has a DTY but flinging an amanar is possible. I will do it for both. She is likely to at least attempt upgrades on beam and floor. UPDATE: amanar confirmed.

Aliya Mustafina, Russia

Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Total:26.2 WOW Musty brings it with all of those updates. 25.9 with no floor upgrade, 25.7 without the beam upgrade either


Here's how some others stack up, including some who aren't actually in the running for AA.

Anastasia Grishina, Russia

Bars: 6.5
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.3 UPDATE 6.5
Floor: 6.1
Total: 24.5 with 5.8 floor and 6.3 beam. 24.9 with all upgrades

Huang Qiushang, China

Bars: 6.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.4
Floor: 6.0
Total: 25.7 with all upgrades 25.4 without

McKayla Maroney, USA

Bars: 5.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.1
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.4

Elizabeth Price, USA

Bars: 6.3
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.7

Kyla Ross, USA

Bars: 6.4
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.2
Floor: 5.5
Total: 23.9 With amanar (unlikely) 24.6

Sandra Izbasa, Romania

Bars: 5.8 (other possible d-score unknown)
Vault: 6.1 OR 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.1 OR 6.5
Total: Lowest possible: 23.9 Highest possible: 24.7

Sarah Finnegan, USA

Bars: 5.8
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.9
Floor: 6.3
Total: 24.8



IN ORDER, using highest potential scores:

Larisa Iordache (26.6)
Viktoria Komova  (26.3)
Aliya Mustafina (26.1)
Gabby Douglas (25.8)
Huang Qiushang (25.7)
Yao Jinnan (25.6)
Jordyn Wieber (25.5)
Aly Raisman (25.4)
Sarah Finnegan and Anastasia Grishina (24.8)
Elizabeth Price and Sandra Izbasa (24.7)
Kyla Ross (24.6)
McKayla Maroney (24.4)


The order for lowest potential and comp d-scores is too confusing now, and kind of hard because even with the Americans with their known d-scores have been falling short of them all year. It's more interesting to just do 'highest potential'. NOTE: This list changes if some of these upgrades don't happen (Yao Jinnan's 7.2 bars for one..) and also changes if connections don't happen- not only are Romanian floors in doubt, so are several beams AND Douglas' bars and beam. Of course, several of these gymnasts are headcases, so falls are always possible. This is NOT taking execution into account at all.

Very, very interesting. As we can see, the AA will be close- though less close if Iordache actually rocks all of those upgrades. Look at the depth of USA, Sarah Finnegan and Elizabeth Price have HUGE d-scores...as alternates! Here we have in black and white exactly why Kyla Ross has no hope of the AA, actually worse than I thought- McKayla beats her. D-scores are almost scarily high, we have one and quite possibly two beams out of a 6.9- the same as Shawn Johnson's 2008 very difficult beam, which counted two more elements!

EDIT: Woah big error with Gabby, who does NOT tie with Jordyn. She has several times due to missed connections, but her full potential puts her ahead.

MORE EDIT: All new upgrades and upgrade potential added. 

EDIT 25/7- All monster Russian upgrades from training added