Cranking numbers for Antwerp and more news

Who has the highest difficulty this year going into Antwerp? It's very hard to say who will hit their connections or who will definitely upgrade etc. but having a look at the raw difficulty scores of the top contenders is still very interesting.

1. Larisa Iordache, Romania. 25 (VT 5.8 UB 5.9 BB 6.9 FX 6.4)
2. Shang Chunsong, China. 24.6 (VT 5.0 UB 6.9 BB 6.6 FX 6.1)
3. Aliya Mustafina, Russia. 24.4 (VT 5.8 UB 6.3 BB 6.4 FX 5.9)
4. Simone Biles, USA. 24.3-5 (VT 6.3 UB 6.1 BB 5.7-9 FX 6.2)
5. Kyla Ross, USA. 23.7-9 (VT 5.8 UB 6.4 BB 5.8-6 FX 5.7)

Edit- There has been a reshuffle, Shang Chunsong's full bars routine is 6.9 so she bumps Aliya Mustafina to third. Simone Biles is either third or fifth, depending on what day of Nationals you pick.. 

Now for the fun bit!

- Larisa Iordache is not guaranteed to get 6.4 on floor. Nor is she guaranteed to get all of her connections on bars- we all know it's a weak spot and for one routine at Euros she just got 5.5. So..
- We would be underestimating Aliya Mustafina if we expect her to roll up at Antwerp with 6.3 bars. I believe she will be aiming for at least two tenths extra there, possibly four. At the same time, if her triple on floor is gone with no replacement or a lower difficulty replacement, expect that to drop. If she CAN squeeze a double layout in instead of it, it will go up 0.1 If she goes for the triple y turn and gets it credited, that is 0.1 also. On the other hand, her beam connections have been dodgy more than they have been solid.
- Shang Chunsong is said to be training a DTY. She has not done it yet at National Games, but if she does throw one at Antwerp- that is 25.2! She's not immune to mistakes/lost connections but neither are any of the top few. Her super high d score WITH an FTY is incredible, and not as one-sided as the infamous Nastia example since she's also very good on floor.
- Simone's score here is with her downgraded beam which she competed at Nationals. IF she brings back her better routine, her total goes up to 24.9. I don't know what to do with her beam, I was so sure the routines were the same at Nationals both days but I was fixated on Day 1, which was lowest. So she MAY be second in this list- not sure whether to bump her up or not in my 'standings'. Her floor is at its lowest- if she brings back the 1.5 to tucked full in she gets 0.2 more so 6.4 and if she does the DLO half-out it will almost certainty be given a value of G, so another 0.1 to 6.5. If she does the double wolf it will be insurance if one of her leaps gets downgraded/not credited. Her full total could be 25.2, but this is far from a given of course. Her floor score is a little complicated- I think because of the leaps. Please feel free to correct me- I am going by YT coded videos which seem to credit everything, and then actual competition scores.
- Don't expect Kyla Ross' difficulty to increase, Marta herself has said this is it. She CAN lose connections on beam if she is unsteady. I wasn't sure what beam d-score to go with since 6.0 was the last but she's been competing with 5.7-8 all year. Her high execution could have her more equal with Simone if Simone doesn't upgrade.
- Yao Jinnan is not included as she is injured and her routines at National Games are being downgraded and upgraded where possible to accommodate that and it's just a mess. She DOES have the highest possible bars d-score though. (7.0) Diana Bulimar (23.3 full capabilty) is not here because she is not a top contender I don't think. She should be, I know.

So, there are quite a few scenarios that can change things, the most dramatic being if Shang Chunsong acquires a DTY. Let's not forget execution- Simone may not get full credit for her leaps, Larisa will more than likely get slammed on bars and any of the what-if's- like Kyla having a low landing, or of course out of bounds, falls etc. etc. The problem with Kyla which is plain as day here, is that even with her full difficulty and Simone who's nearest at her lowest- there's a gap. So she basically has no reserve and needs to be perfect, whereas most of the others can afford some mistakes.

EDIT- I have been linked to some statistics compiled by a poster called Yingova on a thread on a Chinese forum. My favourite one is highest d-score credited this year. Simone Biles 24.9 Aliya Mustafina 24.5 Larisa Iordache and Yao Jinnan 24.1 Shang Chunsong 24 and Kyla Ross 23.9. Not all of those are recent but clearly the AA despite some absences and others under threat will still be interesting..

On to other news- the National Games Team Final took place yesterday, with the podium being in order- Shanghai, Zheijang and Hunan provinces. Zheijang lost out on gold by one error in the end- Wang Wei's fall on her triple twist, which is not nice knowledge for her to carry in a competition this big and prestigious. (Shanghai includes Sui Lu, Tan Sixin, Zheijang Huang Huidan, Luo Huan and Hunan Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin).

- Shang Chunsong hit, again. Not fantastic bars- lost it on a handstand and nearly on another, but hey, she didn't fall. Huang Huidan also hit again, even more astonishing. Great news for these two, and promising for their worlds debut.
- Yao Jinnan struggled with her injury. She fell on floor, and only did an FTY- thankfully. She downgraded her beam and fell twice on bars- on the new Mo Salto and on her Tkachev. The Mo was caught with one hand. I'm so thrilled she went for it and although I'm worried that she still has routines left to compete like floor and vault and her all-around prospects for worlds are not looking good- I've no concern over her bars. It was a fabulous routine and I think it was moreso the mental pressure of carrying your team when you're injured that got to her there.
- He Kexin fell twice on bars, on her Pak and Jaeger. Her bars in qualifying were not as great as usual, and she has obviously been pushing herself to compete here at all. She easily made the bars finals and can hopefully redeem herself there.
- Zeng Siqi fell on beam, again. She still has the AA but it's a bit too little too late at this stage. Beautiful work but her endurance has long been a problem and with consistency on top of that..I think she should be building her routines now and her strength rather than unleashing them on the world stage.
- Wang Yan had a disaster on beam but hit her vault. Tan Jiaxin fell on bars again but hit her vaults too. Junior Luo Huan impressed with a gigantic beam score of 15.067- tying Sui Lu with both execution and difficulty (6.3), despite being eight years younger.

Videos are here. and here. The full livestream has been reuploaded.

Part 2 is the video response underneath. To help you out (and me) here is a little list of the major gymnasts and their competition numbers. I think it's easier than confusing people with what province features on what event in what rotation. Anyway, feel free to comment 'who's number 96' or whatever and I'll find out. Thanks to WangXiangu for compiling the source for this :)
  
Shang Chunsong- 100
Sui Lu- 136
Yao Jinnan- 32
Huang Qiushuang- 40
Wu Liufang- 46
Tan Sixin- 138
Lv Jiaqi- 172- 2016 senior
Luo Huan- 174- 2016 senior
Tan Jiaxin- 102
Zeng Siqi- 106
Liu Tingting- 42- 2016 senior
Wang Yan- 22- 2015 senior
Huang Huidan- 166
Fan Yilin- 134- 2015 senior
He Kexin- 14

The Japan Junior list is out and you should be excited because it looks a lot better than that YOG will be like, even just by virtue of more gymnasts and more birth years admissible. I think the top two places in the AA will be a US story but check out those names..Romania and Russia are sending their best, and so are China. I'm hoping for a livestream, there's a good bit of time to find out..

FIG have released the worlds nominative list, here.These names and events were submitted nearly two weeks ago and can be changed up to the day before competition starts. For instance, the Dutch team has been officially named and Wyomi Masela is on it in place of Vera van Pol who is listed. Viktoria Komova is on the list, but the news that Anna Rodionova may take her place was released after they submitted names for this list. Victoria Moors is not down for vault, Elsa Garcia does not appear, Australia have gymnasts when they have just announced they're not taking any, it is hoped that Viktoria Komova will do bars too, Sandra Izbasa is down for vault which is in question and the US are not naming their team for another ten days so I would call Brenna Dowell far from solid- others in the past have been shafted between the nominative list and competition for the US. All in all, I don't think a huge amount will change. The British team, which has not been named- is interesting. It is what a lot of people have suspected, that Hannah Whelan will just do floor and not beam since Becky Downie is outscoring her there and not the AA since she's not ready for that yet and Ruby Harrold is. Brazil's team has caused outrage, since Jade Barbosa is too injured to compete and Laetitia Costa has not competed well this year at all, so that might change too. I was hoping Jade would be better in time but it doesn't sound too positive. Italy's team is strange- it includes Sydney 2000 Olympian Adriana Crisci! I'm wondering where Elisa Meneghini and Elisabetta Preziosa are when it comes to who's in contention. Are there any other glaring mistakes or interesting omissions/inclusions?

Romanian Nationals are starting soon! For the first time they will be on a podium. Larisa Iordache is said to compete and I'll update with news of the competition.