Things to look forward to in 2015

New year's resolution is...blog more often. I can't really do a 'year in review' since a lot of it is blurry, and only worlds received my undivided attention.

Anyway, the new year is just a few hours away now here in GMT, with lots to hopefully look forward to.


NEW SENIORS

First and foremost, we will get a bumper crop of new seniors. Of the entire quad, 2015 has long shown itself to be the year. There are more exhaustive lists, but here is mine. YOG this year offered a good look at some of these, but of course, only one per country and the US were missing. There are plenty of exciting names here, like the trio of Ellie Downie, Tyesha Matthis and Amy Tinkler who are going to inject team GB with much needed depth and difficulty to boost their programme higher, particularly since Rebecca Tunney is having difficulty after injury after difficulty and Hannah Whelan seems to be fading away. Brazil's Rebeca Andrade has been anticipated for years, and Flavia Saraiva has definitely made a more recent name for herself too.

Romania will get Laura Jurca and Andreea Iridon amongst others, while the exciting Seda Tutkhalyan and Daria Mikhailova will swell Russia's much depleted ranks.

One name stands out of course, and that is...

BAILIE KEY

Finally. FINALLY. Not only does she have 'it', Bailie is 'it'. Form, execution, much improved choreography/dance, oodles of difficulty, no weak event, textbook gymnastics. Very ready for an amanar, already has a beam in the mid 6's, floor is over 6 with room to grow, bars have enormous potential and are getting there with steady upgrades. I can almost forgive the really shoddy layout on beam (PLEASE rework her acro line!) because of that glorious Pak on bars. It's just stunning, like much of her work. She'll never be as exciting as for instance, Simone Biles, yet there is something very exciting about how good she is at ticking almost every box. Bailie is a better Kyla, a gymnast worthy of Simone. Her main source of criticism tends to be robotic, dead inside performances. This really improved last year with a much-needed overhaul of her floor routine. Hopefully her expression continues to improve.

Her explosion in height and injury in the last year caused some concern, but she really seems to be paced extraordinarily well. She is clearly not doing anything she's not capable of, everything looks very easy and it's good to focus on the long-term goals to minimise burnout, particularly when the gymnast adds several inches to their height in a short period of time and skills need to go reworked to accommodate that safely.

Bailie can absolutely give Simone a run for her money, and I'm really looking forward to seeing that in action all season. Some people seem to think that the latter may as well give up since she stands no chance now, an attitude which is downright bizarre, with the information we have now as regards difficulty, and certainly in terms of experience, our double world champion has the advantage.

LESS SHITTY TEAM FINAL

One can always hope? The crop of new seniors will have a big hand to play in this. Of course, the US are getting excellent gymnasts like Bailie, Nia Dennis, Alexis Vasquez and others, but the gymnasts other programmes can now count in their ranks should still lessen the gap. Hopefully, Laura Jurca will show improvement on her 2014 performances. Andreea Iridon's bars and beam will be very valuable to Romania, and the lesser known Dora Vulcan should boost the programme too. The premature fizzling out of Madalina Blendea is a big loss though, if only for the beauty of her work.  

For Russia, Maria Bondareva and Anastasia Dmitrieva have been fading for years, so I don't really count them. Seda and Daria will be very welcome, especially if the former bucks up her consistency. It looks like Ksenia Afanasyeva will be back and ready to go for Russia, and there's always the possibility Vika can stay healthy long enough to deliver on bars and beam (NOT AA, that ship has sailed), who knows. Along with Aliya Mustafina and Maria Kharenkova that's a good, strong core for 2015 teams. It would be nice if Evgeniya Shelgunova emerged too..

GB could definitely be in the mix with their new seniors, I expect them to keep building. Chin a on the other hand, don't get their big guns until 2016 but they will get Wang Yan and also Deng Yalan, who is also a much-needed vaulter. Yuan Xiaoyang who should be turning senior also...her status is unclear, and a retirement would not be surprising, unfortunately. An injection of power on their weak events is exactly what will help them.

Can any of the above chase the US? No. But hopefully they can look better while doing so and narrow the massive gap a bit.

THE PRETTY ONES

There's always the gymnasts who aren't exactly going to shine in the medal stakes, but who are just fantastic or highly interesting to watch. Previous examples this quad are Eythora Thorsdottir and Ilaria Kaeslin. Case in point is Sae Miyakawa of Japan who has some seriously floaty work and the seriously elegant Mara Titarsolej of the Netherlands. Also stunning Fan Yilin of China who looks set to make a comeback of sorts after an earlier retreat from the national team, but I'm hoping she can also be successful.

THE UNKNOWN

There will always be surprises. My money is on Lauren Navarro of the US, I have my eye on her and have done since she singlehandedly inspired Marta to bring in hair rules last year. Her routines were fairly average, but brimming with potential to me. I don't see big massive all-around hope, but her beam in particular looks really good. This year's routine was much improved, perhaps cutting off half her hair had an impact. Elements of it are really, really nice, like her toepoint, general ease, and the dismount. There's something about her. I wouldn't be surprised if she surprised, basically.

THE COMEBACKS

Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas have both attended camp and released tempting footage of themselves. I hope we don't have to wait until Classics to see where they're at in terms of full routines, maybe Jesolo? That would be great. I don't really want to see them exhibition at SCAM...I'd prefer a new senior in that particular role. Both gymnasts are immensely talented and seem to be very, very serious. Gabby never reached her peak, and Aly looks like she could get back to hers with ease. Hmmm. As well as that, I'm looking forward to seeing Afan back in action, and hopefully Didi Bulimar.

WORLDS

Ooooo the year before Rio, where we can expect to see gymnasts really showcasing Olympic routines and solidifying new skills. Not to mention what will hopefully be a killer showdown between super-duper gymnasts Simone Biles and Bailie Key, though hopefully with some international input too.

And....I have tickets because it's in my back garden as far as flights are concerned :D Good thing too, since the next major competition in Europe won't be until 2019! It will be extremely interesting to compare against Antwerp. That had a great atmosphere, but I expect bigger numbers of course at this since it's more important. Shiny new arena will be very interesting too, it's huge..


What and who are you looking forward to? How much faith do you have in much-anticipated comebacks? Will SCAM still be a SCAM? Will anyone understand the announcers and locals in Glasgow? CAN Simone triple it? Will Mykayla Skinner do the half-on two and a half off one-handed and live to tell the tale?

Stuff

WOGA Classic was fairly interesting. Rebeca Andrade stole the show for me, utterly dominating the junior competition. She did not, however, win bars as the official results dictate - Lv Jiaqi did with 14.55, not 14.05. Her d-score was miscalculated by 5 tenths, but she was still given the gold. Rebeca showed a steady floor, with her DLO looking less piked, lovely dynamic DTY instead of the amanar she did not need, and solid improvement on beam and bars. The latter two badly need difficulty but it looks like she's on the right track.

Lv Jiaqi is recovering from a slight injury, so only did bars and floor. Glorious dance on a watered-down floor and her bars were great, so a good meet for her despite not being able to show off her beam - her best event. Tiny munchkin Flavia Saraiva was impressive too, despite a fall on her bars..though it'd be a fairly new routine for her so no worries there. Her line is great on bars and she has nice skills elsewhere..Andrade will more than likely get the YOG nod but I hope Saraiva gets the chance to fight for it. Amy Tinkler's floor was fantastic, great strong tumbling and not even her best- she has a double double in the works. GB has a surfeit of great 1999 girls to form the core of what's sure to be a super-strong Junior Euros team, and a difficult choice over who to send to YOG- Amy Tinkler, Ellie Downie or Tyesha Matthis.

Xie Yufen had a strong, steady meet. She's b-team I think but she could still surprise if she continues strong, at least this year when they're definitely not going to be able to field a stellar worlds team. Yuan Xiaoyang counted two falls which was disappointing, hopefully we will see improvements from her at later meets- after all, they're still in winter training. As for WOGA themselves, seniors Madison Kocian and Alyssa Baumann looked good on their pet events, so that will be interesting. I want a hybrid of those two for the ultimate UB/BB girl..Kocian is better on bars and Baumann on beam but neither are truly outstanding by themselves. There remains a Katelyn Ohashi shaped hole in the USA National Team. Her interview was sad and it sounds like getting back to NCAA level, nevermind elite, will be a very tough ask. The back injury must be very serious and it could mean she won't even be cleared for the full 4 years of college. With luck we will see her again at some level.

Newly Level-10 Kennedy Baker stole the show in that level, effectively crowning herself the Nastia Liukin Cup Champion in the process. I've always thought her gymnastics scream 'college', I think she will shine there. Irina Alexeeva sadly fell on her arabian but I like the composition of her new beam, utilising aerials etc. Last year's routine was too much for her. Still curious over whether she is settled on the US elite track or if she'll plump for Russia as initially intended.

If you're wondering about the obvious disregard for the new floor rules, they won't come into effect until April. Videos of the meet are here.

I haven't had a chance to see much of Elite Canada but I'm impressed by Aleeza Yu, and the sound of Ellie Black's upgrades - including a Shang and BHS-tucked full. I'm not too sure about Victoria Moors' new beam dismount. She's not too consistent on that apparatus and her routine doesn't have a huge amount in it, hopefully the rest of it improves to keep pace with the ending.

Romania have released some rosters of junior competitions, and confirmed Larisa Iordache will be on her way to the US soon. Linky link. I'm most excited to see Olivia Cimpian who is tragically too young for Rio. She is a star in the making, but I'll have my eye on the other girls too.

Speaking of which, Junior Euros could possibly be more exciting than Senior, in the team competition. 1999 and 2000 born are seriously strong years internationally, hence excitement. GB would quite easily be the ones to beat- a team of Tyesha Matthis, Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Catherine Lyons and Georgia Mae Fenton/Teal Grindle is formiddable. Romania should be strong- maybe Laura Jurca, Madalina Blendea, Anda Butuc, Andra Stoica and Andreea Ciurusniuc? The Russian team will preferably have Maria Bondareva, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Seda Tutkhalyan, Ekaterina Sokova and I'm not sure of the fifth.

Seniors are murkier, hard to tell where half of the potential Russian team is at. Hopefully that will become clearer soon.

I cannot wait for American Cup! I'm thinking gold is Simone Biles' already, unless she falls..and she could, but having an incredible worlds will probably help her out in the nerves department. Really looking forward to the debut of her impressive upgrades although the Cheng will have to wait- no event finals of course. Ebee and Larisa Iordache should have a good battle for colour of medals I think, with Roxana Popa, Giulia Steingruber and Vanessa Ferrari right behind them. Bars rotation should be exciting - Roxana and Sophie have some of my favourite routines, Ebee is always good to watch, a hit routine from Larisa like she did late last year would be awesome, Vanessa might throw her newly-regained Comaneci, and Simone has at least one upgrade too. Vault also- 2 amanars, a Rudi and strong DTY's.

Who are you most looking forward to seeing at American Cup/Euros?