Sunday, 21 April 2013

The Master of Prediction

Read on to see how much of a fool's game predictions are...



Teams:

Russia. Ding! All 4 correct, not exactly tough as 3/4 had already been named.

Romania. Ding! I did have Stefanie Stanila added to mine but I still got the team correct..

Britain. Oooh. 2/4 correct. I thought they would give veteran Hannah Whelan a chance but it was decided her new routines were not yet ready. I also thought they'd only have one bars specialist, but they brought two. Niamh Rippin should get a shot at some stage I think, but anyway instead of my two Charlie Fellows and Ruby Harrold were sent.

Italy. :/ Another 2/4. I was wondering if they were going to go the specialist route or the all-arounder route, and at a specialist Euros they went for the latter, bringing Carlotta Ferlito and Giorgia Campana instead of my picks- Serena Bugani and Elisabetta Preziosa. Oh well!

Total: 10/14

Qualifying:

AA

Mine..

1. Mustafina
2. Grishina
3. Bulimar
4. Iordache
5. Jupp

Actual:

1. Iordache
2. Bulimar
3. Grishina
4. Mustafina
5. Popa

So 4/5 for names and 0/5 for placing. The reasoning behind Iordache being so low in mine was that she had not at that time competed anywhere and had pulled out of shedloads of competitions so I was thinking she would not be at her best at Euros. Jupp of course was injured..and who would predict Mustafina falling twice off beam?

Floor:

Mine:

1. Afanasyeva
2. Bulimar
3. Livchikova
4. Iordache
5. Mustafina
6. Meneghini
7. Jupp
8. Van Klaveren

Actual:

1. Afanasyeva
2. Iordache
3. Mustafina
4. Bulimar
5. Steingruber
6. Ferlito
7. Popa
8. Sankova

Hmm. Poor- 4/8 for names and an enormous 1/8 for placing. Livchikova and Jupp were injured, Meneghini's difficulty was not enough and I think Van Klaveren did not go clean on floor. Of those that I did get right I underestimated Iordache and Mustafina.

Vault

Mine:

1. Steingruber
2. Paseka
3. Van Klaveren
4. Rippin
5. Bugani
6. Boczogo
7. Netteb. Didn't pick an 8th.

Actual:

1. Steingruber
2. Paseka
3. Van Klaveren
4. Iordache
5. Nezer
6. Netteb
7. Belak
8. Tkalkec

4/7 for names but I did get the top 3 placing, so 3/7 for that. Iordache at this point had not done her second vault at Doha and although she was on the roster for one it was widely assumed she would pull out of Doha too. Rippin and Bugani were not even there and I had not really heard of Nezer, Belak and Tkalkec.

Beam

Mine:

1. Grishina
2. Afanasyeva
3. Bulimar
4. Iordache
5. Jupp
6. Millousi
7. Preziosa
8. Livchikova

Actual (after the Italian debacle had been sorted out):

1. Iordache
2. Bulimar
3. Ferlito
4. Meneghini
5. Vasylieva
6. Jupp
7. Kurkowska
8. Harrold
9 and replacing Jupp- Grishina

4/8 (or 9?). No placing correct. Afanasyeva wobbled all over the place and did not qualify, Grishina fell and only scraped in because Jupp withdrew. Millousi biffed her double pike dismount again, Preziosa was not there and Livchikova was injured.

Bars

Mine:

1. Mustafina
2. Grishina
3. Downie
4. Scheder
5. Matveyeva
6. Hill
7. Kononenko
8. Jupp

Actual:

1. Mustafina
2. Downie
3. Scheder
4. Adlerteg
5. Harrold
6. Paseka
7. Campana
8. Gustafsson

Worst of the lot, 3/8 for names and 1/8 for placing. Kononenko was not there, Grishina fell, Jupp was injured and the rest underperformed. Harrold was not even on my team, Paseka was a huge surprise and her entry gifted by Grishina falling, and Campana and the two Swedes were a nice surprise too.

Podiums

AA

Mine:

1. Mustafina
2. Bulimar
3. Iordache

Actual:

1. Mustafina
2. Iordache
3. Grishina

2/3 names and 1/3 placement. Another underestimation of Iordache and Grishina. Never a bad thing!

Floor

Mine:

1. Bulimar
2. Afanasyeva
3. Livchikova

Actual:

1. Afanasyeva
2. Iordache
3. Bulimar

2/3 for names, 0 for placement. I pictured Afan going out of bounds and not having upgrades, again underestimating Iordache and a strong performance by the sadly injured and not present Livchikova.

Vault

Mine:

1. Steingruber
2. Paseka
3. Van Klaveren

Actual:

1. Steingruber
2. Van Klaveren
2. Iordache

2/3 for names, 1/3 for placement. Again with the not knowing that Iordache would actually show up and vault a second vault. Paseka crashing both her vaults was definitely unexpected but I did know at least that Steingruber and Van Klaveren kick ass.

Beam

Mine:

1. Grishina
2. Afanasyeva
3. Livchikova

Actual:

1. Iordache
2. Bulimar
3. Grishina

Wow. 1/3 for names, 0 for placment. Again no Livchikova present and Afan wobbled herself out of qualifying. I predicted Bulimar would have a huge break..she did have issues at LRSY which was not long over when I predicted this. The Romanians came along and solidly tore down my predictions anyway.

Bars

Mine:

1. Mustafina
2. Grishina
3. Scheder

Actual:

1. Mustafina
2. Adlerteg
3. Paseka

Haha, 1/3 for names and placing. Grishina would have fulfilled the brief had she not fallen in qualifying, and so would Scheder had she not fallen way short of handstand and taken a big deduction. So I stand by the logic of my podium. It is great to see new faces though.

That's a grand total of...37/66 for names or 56%!
Much worse for placing..8/52 or 15%.

Medal table:

Mine:

Russia- 7- 3 golds, 4 silver
Romania- 3- 1 of each
Ukraine- 2- bronze
Switzerland- 1- gold
Germany- 1- bronze
Netherlands- 1 bronze

Most decorated gymnast- Mustafina 2 gold

Actual:

Russia- 6- 3 gold, 3 bronze
Romania- 6- 1 gold, 4 silver, 1 bronze
Ukraine- 0
Switzerland- 1 gold
Germany- 0
Sweden- 1 silver
Netherlands- 1 silver

So while Russia and Romania are equally successful, Russia have more gold. Aliya Mustafina is not the most decorated but she IS the most successful with 2 gold medals. Larisa Iordache reigns as the most decorated with 4 medals- 1 gold, 3 silver.

The lesson here is, predictions are ridiculous because gymnastics is too unpredictable. Still, they are fun..

A review of event finals coming up tomorrow! I'm too involved with following event finals at NCAA.



3 comments:

  1. Haha I avoided the whole mess by only predicting AA, and only doing that after qualifications. But you did pretty well, considering you did them before we even knew who the teams were, nor how Iordache was doing!

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  2. You did a pretty good job! It's mostly the injuries that threw things off.

    Paseka was definitely a surprise BOTH on vault and bars. Larisa was in surprisingly good shape but Bellu & Bitang really need to clean up her form on everything before Worlds, she's giving away far too much unnecessarily. Hope Bulimar upgrades as well, she is well capable of more and is only losing out to Larisa because of lower difficulty and not enough artistry on floor. Ukranians were generally heartbreakers throughout all of Euros, sadly true to form.

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  3. You got your AA right, sneaky! And yes, I'd definitely agree that for Romania cleaning up Larisa's routines, upgrading Bulimar's and fixing their bars is priority number one.

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