A while ago, this AA was seen as more exciting. Everybody predicted Jordyn Wieber, Larisa Iordache and Yao Jinnan up against Viktoria Komova, Aliya Mustafina and Gabby Douglas. Obviously now we are down Jordyn, Jinnan is injured and clearly off form and Iordache has been off form too, yet it's amazing she is here at all when she was written off just last week. It's hard to predict which Larisa we are going to see, I would imagine floor 6.7 vault 6.5 bars 6.5 beam 6.9 ie, her full difficulty is a bit out of the question, but floor 6.5 vault 6.5 bars 6.3 beam 6.7 is not. And that is still huge. Anyway, she is the one I am rooting for. My ideal podium is Larisa- Musty- Vika/Aly. What I actually expect is Vika- Gabby- Musty.
Who is the most likely to headcase?
Gabby and Vika. Vika has issues with endurance, Gabby has found consistency lately but beam should still be greatly feared and there's even more pressure on her now.
Least likely to headcase?
Aly! Then Larisa, then Musty. Musty might have another wobbly beam, yet actually having a huge error? Very very unlikely.
Who is the dark horse?
Aly and Larisa. Aly is the steadiest, Larisa's ability to shine as of today is not yet known.
What are Aly's chances?
Aly has the lowest difficulty out of her, Gabby, Vika, Musty and Larisa. She IS the steadiest. While she was the second highest qualifier, an underpar Vika still beat her. All of the others have improvements to make, whereas Aly shone and was at her absolute best at prelims. She doesn't have room for further improvements- though the improvement itself from Trials until prelims was phenomenal.
What about Vanessa Ferrari and Deng Linlin, the next highest qualifiers?
Ferrari is very strong on beam and floor, but aside from floor doesn't have the really high difficulty to really be boosted onto the podium. Deng's is higher, she is quite strong all-around but has already peaked and had a nightmare in TF, so her performance tonight will be very interesting. Both are very strong competitors, but not really podium material
Why isn't Larisa competing with Vika, Gabby and co?
She had a fall on floor and did not qualify to the top group. Hopefully BBC (and NBC and everyone else) will recognise that she should be broadcast!
Will we have a winner with a fall?
No, it's far too close. Beam wobbles will be the height of the winner's errors.
I don't know what it is about the question format, but I like it :) Prepare to be deafened by the noise of McKayla cheering from the stands! I watched part of TF back on the Eurosport livestream to catch the podium ceremony and without commentary, you can really hear her going mental!
Showing posts with label Jinnan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jinnan. Show all posts
Thursday, 2 August 2012
Sunday, 15 July 2012
Top AA contenders: quick breakdown
Unlike d-score rankings, this is based on observation. Feel free to disagree! I am assuming seven top contenders, Jordyn Wieber, Gabby Douglas, Viktoria Komova, Aliya Mustafina, Larisa Iordache, Yao Jinnan and Huang Qiushuang
Name: Jordyn Wieber
Country: USA
Combined d-score: 25.5
Known for: Being extremely powerful, solid and dependable across the board. Very very focused and determined and highly unlikely to headcase
Best event: Floor
Wow skills: Full twisting double layout bars dismount, double double on floor, amanar
Worst event: Bars
Execution, vault: Jordyn has a very good amanar, good form, good height, distance and landing. Her twists could be faster to enable a slightly safer landing but it's fine as it is. The best amanar we will see in AA
Execution, bars: Jordyn uses brute power to complete the routine, this muscling up will be deducted. Aside from that it is clean with good form. Releases could be deducted for lack of height. She has shown that a mistake messes up the whole routine before, but competed with no mistakes at Trials.
Execution, beam: The problem here is that she has been missing her connections all year. Aside from that, it's fine. Not going to wow anyone with it's artistry or form, but not going to be deducted for lack of either. Great dismount
Execution, floor: Great landings, clean tumbling. Nothing stands out as being bad or sloppy.
Artistry: Jordyn's floor is extremely clever, suits her down to the ground and IS artistic. A masterpiece in how to have a great floor when you are not balletic in the slightest
Needs to: HIT her beam connections which are being changed now at camp.
Headcase factor: Not a factor
Mistakes: Could mess up beam connections. Bars mistake a possibility
Overall: Power does not mean sloppy form! Jordyn always showcases clean, powerful gymnastics. her difficulty has been surpassed, but her unshakeable competition demeanour means she stands ready to bypass others who make mistakes
Name: Gabby Douglas
Country: USA
Combined d-score: 25.8
Known for: Having insanely high bars releases 'flying squirrel', high difficulty in every event but also for letting nerves get to her and headcasing, especially on beam
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Standing full twist on beam, piked tkatchev that hits the rafters, amanar
Worst event: Beam, headcase reasons only
Execution, vault: Gabby's amanar has clean form, good twisting ability and a good landing. Unfortuantely she exhibits many sit-downs in training, and missed her hand at Pac-Rims so this isn't a certainty that she will nail it. When she does, she will be deducted for lack of height and distance.
Execution, bars: Gabby shows sky-high releases, great lines and sharp pirouetting. Execution score here will be very high.
Execution, beam: If she doesn't make any mistakes, execution will score high. Clean tumbling, great leaps and a standing full twist that is completely upright! Characteristically has wobbles and balance checks which will bring her down, and a fall is not out of the question either.
Execution, floor: Again, clean tumbling and great leaps. The problem here is her choreography which is jerky and NCAA-style. It might get hammered in London, it might not. If it doesn't, execution will be high. Has had some issues with landings at Trials, which could also cost her
Artistry: Potentially poor on floor, that depends on London judging. Beam flows very well.
Needs to: NOT headcase on beam, it needs to be as it is in training. Try to get more of a block off the vault, as the fact that it is flat is resulting in her poor distance and height.
Headcase factor: A big factor. High on beam, possible on vault
Mistakes: A perfectly hit beam routine would be surprising, one or more balance checks very likely. She has not hit her full potential on bars this year, missed connections.
Overall: Gabby has higher potential than Jordyn as she doesn't really have a weak event. She has had an amazing year after being written off in 2011. If she hits everything she will be tough to beat, unfortunately missed connections and her troublesome beam knock back her difficulty and e scores.
Name: Viktoria Komova
Country: Russia
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26
Known for: Beautiful bars with pencil-like turns, her 90's style beam acro line and unfortunately known for poor sportmanship
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Patterson beam dismount, amanar, double double bars dismount
Worst event: Floor
Execution, vault: Hard to tell as her amanar which recently surfaced is not shown from a great angle. It looks very clean with good twisting form but doesn't look very high.
Execution, bars: Extremely clean and precise, Vika has almost certainly the best bars execution we will see- especially if she nails that extremely difficult dismount
Execution, beam: Beautiful lines and leaps here, but has issues with balance checks. She has had a very troublesome year on beam, though was recovering from an injury. If she shows no mistakes this too could be the highest scoring on this apparatus execution-wise.
Execution, floor: Often shows deep landings on tumbles, other than that is is very clean
Artistry: Decent on floor, but not particularly special or noteworthy. It's dissapointing because with her lines you expect Soviet balletic grace. Beam has a lovely flow and is beautifully put-together.
Needs to: NOT fall off beam, or show any major balance checks there. Nail her double double bars dismount, she fell back after landing it at Russian Cup. Get slightly more height on her amanar.
Headcase factor: A factor, especially on beam where it's high
Mistakes: Again, beam is where she loses it a bit. Balance checks.
Overall: More and more with her upgrades, she's proving herself as THE one to beat. Floor is where she could struggle, as well as beam. Has the potential to blow everyone else away, especially now she is not injured or recovering.
Name: Aliya Mustafina
Country: Russia
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26.1!
Known for: Her beautiful bars and fierce beam. She is seen as the 'diva' probably all due to her gameface. Also known for making a remarkable comeback, the queen in 2010, she tore her ACL last year and is now making great strides in getting all of her difficulty back
Best event: Bars or beam
Wow skills: Amanar
Worst event: Floor
Execution, vault: Great on her DTY, very clean. She crosses her legs almost at the knees on her amanar, which will hurt her bigtime. BUT it hasn't been seen this year and may have improved. Good at sticking landings.
Execution, bars: Very similar to Komova- precise, clean, great lines. Nothing blatant that will cost her.
Execution, beam: Very high, Musty is precise in her movements and shows great leaps. Very clean. Unlikely to fall off or show a big balance break
Execution, floor: Had mistakes at Euros but has improved since. Twisting form is bad and will cost her. In general, it's a little bit sloppy
Artistry: Has a great confidence in her movements so sells a routine very well. Beam is well done too. She has grace and power and showcases both well
Needs to: Clean up her floor, try to improve her twisting form. Land safely on that amanar!
Headcase factor: Not really a factor
Mistakes: It's her form that will cost her but underrotating on floor is a possiblity
Overall: What a comeback, Aliya stands ready to get on the podium, especially if she cleans up her twisting form. She will be one of the most determined and ready
Name: Larisa Iordache
Country: Romania
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26.6, likely to be over 26 anyway
Known for: Incredibly difficult combinations on beam and a very difficult floor, but also weak bars by comparison to others
Best event: Beam
Wow skills: Double double on floor, amanar, full twisting layout in combination on beam
Worst event: Bars
Execution, vault: Hard to tell, again not a great angle on the video of her amanar that surfaced from training. It looks decent with good height, nothing amazing. Hard to judge the form.
Execution, bars: Far below the two Chinese and the two Russians, but it's not bad. Very good for a Romanian but she will lose ground here. Decent swing but shows form breaks and just isn't precise enough.
Execution, beam: Very high, she is just great in every way here. Very clean, great tumbling
Execution, floor: Sometimes bouncy on landings, if she cleans those up it will be very high. Lovely clean tumbling
Artistry: Exciting! her floor is so energetic and well choreographed, she sells it well and is so amazing to watch. Beam is more skill-skill but is not mechanical looking
Needs to: Clean up on bars, hit all of her connections and upgrades, stick her landings on floor
Headcase factor: Not a factor
Mistakes: Missing connections, leg seps on bars, bouncing out of floor landings
Overall: If she brings all of these upgrades and hits all the connections, her bars deficit might not be a problem due to her insane floor and beam difficulty. High execution could carry her through
Name: Yao Jinnan
Country: China
Combined d-score: Could be 25.6
Known for: Surprising everyone at worlds last year, Yao is very good on floor which is unusual for a Chinese gymnast. Great bars
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Stalder shaposhnikova half on bars
Worst event: Vault- just lack of amanar really
Execution, vault: Clean and tidy DTY, not much to deduct except the landing which she doesn't usually stick cold
Execution, bars: Typically Chinese, beautiful, difficult and with incredibly sharp turns. Uses shaposh variation transitions so no dead hang which often mars a Chinese bars routine
Execution, beam: Not as innovative or difficult as her teammate Sui Lu, but clean and well presented nonetheless. Lovely lines. Has fallen off a lot unfortunately
Execution, floor: Crosses her feet slightly when twisting, prone to stepping or hopping slightly out of landings. Otherwise, extremely clean
Artistry: Another dissapointment! Her choreography is a bit scrappy and doesn't showcase her lines well enough. Beam is fine
Needs to: Not fall off beam, work on her artistry
Headcase factor: High on beam, very low elsewhere
Mistakes: Not sticking landings
Overall: A very strong all-arounder who could be up there even without an amanar, doesn't really have a weak event! Another who could clean up if others make mistakes.
Name: Huang Qiushuang
Country: China
Combined d-score: Could be 25.7
Known for: Beautiful lines, surprising power, THAT 2011 worlds leo and falling off bars and beam
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: amanar
Worst event: Bars or beam, just for the falls
Execution, vault: Again not a great angle to see her amanar but it's safe and well rotated. A big leg sep and a large side step on landing from what we have seen. On her DTY shows slightly sloppy legs, which is likely to be amplified when amanaring
Execution, bars: Beautiful lines, but has tiny leg seps and dead hang after transition. Muscles up kips. Usually sticks her dismount cold.
Execution, beam: Clean, great lines.
Execution, floor: Sells her routine, great form and lines, clean tumbling. Sometimes hops out of her twists, going OOB not unheard of.
Artistry: Amazing, she gets so into her music and really sells it. Great movements and it flows very well. Beam is fine
Needs to: Get more consistent! Clean up her vault
Headcase factor: Huge. Sadly, headcase is her middle name
Mistakes: Other than falling, going OOB a possiblity, steps on landings
Overall: Absolutely beautiful lines and such potential but it would nearly have to be a miracle for her to go clean on every event with no falls or OOB.
Wow I'm glad I'm not a commentator...not many ways to describe 'lovely clean form/execution'. I think I'll stop with the breakdowns now!
Name: Jordyn Wieber
Country: USA
Combined d-score: 25.5
Known for: Being extremely powerful, solid and dependable across the board. Very very focused and determined and highly unlikely to headcase
Best event: Floor
Wow skills: Full twisting double layout bars dismount, double double on floor, amanar
Worst event: Bars
Execution, vault: Jordyn has a very good amanar, good form, good height, distance and landing. Her twists could be faster to enable a slightly safer landing but it's fine as it is. The best amanar we will see in AA
Execution, bars: Jordyn uses brute power to complete the routine, this muscling up will be deducted. Aside from that it is clean with good form. Releases could be deducted for lack of height. She has shown that a mistake messes up the whole routine before, but competed with no mistakes at Trials.
Execution, beam: The problem here is that she has been missing her connections all year. Aside from that, it's fine. Not going to wow anyone with it's artistry or form, but not going to be deducted for lack of either. Great dismount
Execution, floor: Great landings, clean tumbling. Nothing stands out as being bad or sloppy.
Artistry: Jordyn's floor is extremely clever, suits her down to the ground and IS artistic. A masterpiece in how to have a great floor when you are not balletic in the slightest
Needs to: HIT her beam connections which are being changed now at camp.
Headcase factor: Not a factor
Mistakes: Could mess up beam connections. Bars mistake a possibility
Overall: Power does not mean sloppy form! Jordyn always showcases clean, powerful gymnastics. her difficulty has been surpassed, but her unshakeable competition demeanour means she stands ready to bypass others who make mistakes
Name: Gabby Douglas
Country: USA
Combined d-score: 25.8
Known for: Having insanely high bars releases 'flying squirrel', high difficulty in every event but also for letting nerves get to her and headcasing, especially on beam
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Standing full twist on beam, piked tkatchev that hits the rafters, amanar
Worst event: Beam, headcase reasons only
Execution, vault: Gabby's amanar has clean form, good twisting ability and a good landing. Unfortuantely she exhibits many sit-downs in training, and missed her hand at Pac-Rims so this isn't a certainty that she will nail it. When she does, she will be deducted for lack of height and distance.
Execution, bars: Gabby shows sky-high releases, great lines and sharp pirouetting. Execution score here will be very high.
Execution, beam: If she doesn't make any mistakes, execution will score high. Clean tumbling, great leaps and a standing full twist that is completely upright! Characteristically has wobbles and balance checks which will bring her down, and a fall is not out of the question either.
Execution, floor: Again, clean tumbling and great leaps. The problem here is her choreography which is jerky and NCAA-style. It might get hammered in London, it might not. If it doesn't, execution will be high. Has had some issues with landings at Trials, which could also cost her
Artistry: Potentially poor on floor, that depends on London judging. Beam flows very well.
Needs to: NOT headcase on beam, it needs to be as it is in training. Try to get more of a block off the vault, as the fact that it is flat is resulting in her poor distance and height.
Headcase factor: A big factor. High on beam, possible on vault
Mistakes: A perfectly hit beam routine would be surprising, one or more balance checks very likely. She has not hit her full potential on bars this year, missed connections.
Overall: Gabby has higher potential than Jordyn as she doesn't really have a weak event. She has had an amazing year after being written off in 2011. If she hits everything she will be tough to beat, unfortunately missed connections and her troublesome beam knock back her difficulty and e scores.
Name: Viktoria Komova
Country: Russia
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26
Known for: Beautiful bars with pencil-like turns, her 90's style beam acro line and unfortunately known for poor sportmanship
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Patterson beam dismount, amanar, double double bars dismount
Worst event: Floor
Execution, vault: Hard to tell as her amanar which recently surfaced is not shown from a great angle. It looks very clean with good twisting form but doesn't look very high.
Execution, bars: Extremely clean and precise, Vika has almost certainly the best bars execution we will see- especially if she nails that extremely difficult dismount
Execution, beam: Beautiful lines and leaps here, but has issues with balance checks. She has had a very troublesome year on beam, though was recovering from an injury. If she shows no mistakes this too could be the highest scoring on this apparatus execution-wise.
Execution, floor: Often shows deep landings on tumbles, other than that is is very clean
Artistry: Decent on floor, but not particularly special or noteworthy. It's dissapointing because with her lines you expect Soviet balletic grace. Beam has a lovely flow and is beautifully put-together.
Needs to: NOT fall off beam, or show any major balance checks there. Nail her double double bars dismount, she fell back after landing it at Russian Cup. Get slightly more height on her amanar.
Headcase factor: A factor, especially on beam where it's high
Mistakes: Again, beam is where she loses it a bit. Balance checks.
Overall: More and more with her upgrades, she's proving herself as THE one to beat. Floor is where she could struggle, as well as beam. Has the potential to blow everyone else away, especially now she is not injured or recovering.
Name: Aliya Mustafina
Country: Russia
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26.1!
Known for: Her beautiful bars and fierce beam. She is seen as the 'diva' probably all due to her gameface. Also known for making a remarkable comeback, the queen in 2010, she tore her ACL last year and is now making great strides in getting all of her difficulty back
Best event: Bars or beam
Wow skills: Amanar
Worst event: Floor
Execution, vault: Great on her DTY, very clean. She crosses her legs almost at the knees on her amanar, which will hurt her bigtime. BUT it hasn't been seen this year and may have improved. Good at sticking landings.
Execution, bars: Very similar to Komova- precise, clean, great lines. Nothing blatant that will cost her.
Execution, beam: Very high, Musty is precise in her movements and shows great leaps. Very clean. Unlikely to fall off or show a big balance break
Execution, floor: Had mistakes at Euros but has improved since. Twisting form is bad and will cost her. In general, it's a little bit sloppy
Artistry: Has a great confidence in her movements so sells a routine very well. Beam is well done too. She has grace and power and showcases both well
Needs to: Clean up her floor, try to improve her twisting form. Land safely on that amanar!
Headcase factor: Not really a factor
Mistakes: It's her form that will cost her but underrotating on floor is a possiblity
Overall: What a comeback, Aliya stands ready to get on the podium, especially if she cleans up her twisting form. She will be one of the most determined and ready
Name: Larisa Iordache
Country: Romania
Combined d-score: Could be as high as 26.6, likely to be over 26 anyway
Known for: Incredibly difficult combinations on beam and a very difficult floor, but also weak bars by comparison to others
Best event: Beam
Wow skills: Double double on floor, amanar, full twisting layout in combination on beam
Worst event: Bars
Execution, vault: Hard to tell, again not a great angle on the video of her amanar that surfaced from training. It looks decent with good height, nothing amazing. Hard to judge the form.
Execution, bars: Far below the two Chinese and the two Russians, but it's not bad. Very good for a Romanian but she will lose ground here. Decent swing but shows form breaks and just isn't precise enough.
Execution, beam: Very high, she is just great in every way here. Very clean, great tumbling
Execution, floor: Sometimes bouncy on landings, if she cleans those up it will be very high. Lovely clean tumbling
Artistry: Exciting! her floor is so energetic and well choreographed, she sells it well and is so amazing to watch. Beam is more skill-skill but is not mechanical looking
Needs to: Clean up on bars, hit all of her connections and upgrades, stick her landings on floor
Headcase factor: Not a factor
Mistakes: Missing connections, leg seps on bars, bouncing out of floor landings
Overall: If she brings all of these upgrades and hits all the connections, her bars deficit might not be a problem due to her insane floor and beam difficulty. High execution could carry her through
Name: Yao Jinnan
Country: China
Combined d-score: Could be 25.6
Known for: Surprising everyone at worlds last year, Yao is very good on floor which is unusual for a Chinese gymnast. Great bars
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: Stalder shaposhnikova half on bars
Worst event: Vault- just lack of amanar really
Execution, vault: Clean and tidy DTY, not much to deduct except the landing which she doesn't usually stick cold
Execution, bars: Typically Chinese, beautiful, difficult and with incredibly sharp turns. Uses shaposh variation transitions so no dead hang which often mars a Chinese bars routine
Execution, beam: Not as innovative or difficult as her teammate Sui Lu, but clean and well presented nonetheless. Lovely lines. Has fallen off a lot unfortunately
Execution, floor: Crosses her feet slightly when twisting, prone to stepping or hopping slightly out of landings. Otherwise, extremely clean
Artistry: Another dissapointment! Her choreography is a bit scrappy and doesn't showcase her lines well enough. Beam is fine
Needs to: Not fall off beam, work on her artistry
Headcase factor: High on beam, very low elsewhere
Mistakes: Not sticking landings
Overall: A very strong all-arounder who could be up there even without an amanar, doesn't really have a weak event! Another who could clean up if others make mistakes.
Name: Huang Qiushuang
Country: China
Combined d-score: Could be 25.7
Known for: Beautiful lines, surprising power, THAT 2011 worlds leo and falling off bars and beam
Best event: Bars
Wow skills: amanar
Worst event: Bars or beam, just for the falls
Execution, vault: Again not a great angle to see her amanar but it's safe and well rotated. A big leg sep and a large side step on landing from what we have seen. On her DTY shows slightly sloppy legs, which is likely to be amplified when amanaring
Execution, bars: Beautiful lines, but has tiny leg seps and dead hang after transition. Muscles up kips. Usually sticks her dismount cold.
Execution, beam: Clean, great lines.
Execution, floor: Sells her routine, great form and lines, clean tumbling. Sometimes hops out of her twists, going OOB not unheard of.
Artistry: Amazing, she gets so into her music and really sells it. Great movements and it flows very well. Beam is fine
Needs to: Get more consistent! Clean up her vault
Headcase factor: Huge. Sadly, headcase is her middle name
Mistakes: Other than falling, going OOB a possiblity, steps on landings
Overall: Absolutely beautiful lines and such potential but it would nearly have to be a miracle for her to go clean on every event with no falls or OOB.
Wow I'm glad I'm not a commentator...not many ways to describe 'lovely clean form/execution'. I think I'll stop with the breakdowns now!
Tuesday, 10 July 2012
A look at start values UPDATED 25/7
Start values are in doubt for a few gymnasts, questionable upgrades, amanar possibilities, and fixing of routine connections not boding well for the SV (Jordyn's beam). Nevertheless, it is fun to see them and guess and surmise from them what the gymnast will bring to prelims. Albert at the all-around is doing a great job keeping track of d-scores, but only does the top 20 AA totals, and the top 20 on each, so a lot of the below are missing,
The known highest is Gabby. It's worth noting that her bars generally has a d-score of 6.5 or 6.4 in comp, must be a missed connection. Beam also is usually lower by more than a tenth. Romania's scores are varied, highest potential and highest in competition is shown.
Gabby Douglas, USA
Bars: 6.6
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.8
Jordyn blah blah beam in doubt
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Bars: 6.4
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.4 (currently)
Total: 25.5
Aly is right behind. Bars obviously dragging her down, she would beat the other two if she had even Jordyn's bars
Aly Raisman, USA
Bars: 5.9
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.4
Vika with an amanar brings huge difficulty. A DTY obviously hurts her bigtime. It is very very likely we will see the amanar anyway.Floor needs a boost, and that is definitely a possibility- 0.2 confirmed. Beam up by 0.2- WOW.
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.3
Beam: 6.5 UPDATED
Total: 26.3 with amanar, 25.6 with DTY
Larisa will beat them all d-score wise IF she performs all of her potential upgrades and connects them all AND has the amanar. We know she has an amanar, and we know she missed her connections on beam and floor at the Romanian meet. She is the most in question, but she can bring it. The first score is the potential, the second is the highest competed- either pre-upgrades or with missed connections
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Bars: 6.5, 6.1
Vault: 6.5, 5.8
Floor: 6.7, 6.4
Beam: 6.9, 6.7
Total: 26.6, highest possible. Lowest possible is 25. With amanar but using other lowest scores- 25.7. Without amanar but using other highest scores- 25.9, the highest of everyone.
Either way, Larisa is a huge threat that shouldn't be dismissed. 26.6 would be awesome, 26 itself is probably the most realistic IN competition.
Yao Jinnan won bronze in the 2011 Worlds AA, even counting a fall from beam. Without the fall, she would have won and ended the controversy between Jordyn and Vika. Injured this year on a DTY, she is still expected to be a strong contender. However, it is highly unlikely she will bring the creme de la creme, the amanar.
Yao Jinnan, China
Bars: 6.8 7.2 rumoured!
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.4 6.6 full potential UPDATE
Floor: Cannot find d-score. Her routine from worlds was a 6.0. The London test event looked watered down. We'll give her the benefit of the doubt with a 6.0
Total: Assuming 6.0 on floor and beam update, 25.2 25.6 with rumoured 7.2 bars and beam update
Aliya has been eclipsed by others, but is by no means out of the running. Her vault is unknown, she has a DTY but flinging an amanar is possible. I will do it for both. She is likely to at least attempt upgrades on beam and floor. UPDATE: amanar confirmed.
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Total:26.2 WOW Musty brings it with all of those updates. 25.9 with no floor upgrade, 25.7 without the beam upgrade either
Here's how some others stack up, including some who aren't actually in the running for AA.
Anastasia Grishina, Russia
Bars: 6.5
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.3 UPDATE 6.5
Floor: 6.1
Total: 24.5 with 5.8 floor and 6.3 beam. 24.9 with all upgrades
Huang Qiushang, China
Bars: 6.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.4
Floor: 6.0
Total: 25.7 with all upgrades 25.4 without
McKayla Maroney, USA
Bars: 5.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.1
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.4
Elizabeth Price, USA
Bars: 6.3
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.7
Kyla Ross, USA
Bars: 6.4
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.2
Floor: 5.5
Total: 23.9 With amanar (unlikely) 24.6
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Bars: 5.8 (other possible d-score unknown)
Vault: 6.1 OR 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.1 OR 6.5
Total: Lowest possible: 23.9 Highest possible: 24.7
Sarah Finnegan, USA
Bars: 5.8
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.9
Floor: 6.3
Total: 24.8
IN ORDER, using highest potential scores:
Larisa Iordache (26.6)
Viktoria Komova (26.3)
Aliya Mustafina (26.1)
Gabby Douglas (25.8)
Huang Qiushang (25.7)
Yao Jinnan (25.6)
Jordyn Wieber (25.5)
Aly Raisman (25.4)
Sarah Finnegan and Anastasia Grishina (24.8)
Elizabeth Price and Sandra Izbasa (24.7)
Kyla Ross (24.6)
McKayla Maroney (24.4)
The order for lowest potential and comp d-scores is too confusing now, and kind of hard because even with the Americans with their known d-scores have been falling short of them all year. It's more interesting to just do 'highest potential'. NOTE: This list changes if some of these upgrades don't happen (Yao Jinnan's 7.2 bars for one..) and also changes if connections don't happen- not only are Romanian floors in doubt, so are several beams AND Douglas' bars and beam. Of course, several of these gymnasts are headcases, so falls are always possible. This is NOT taking execution into account at all.
Very, very interesting. As we can see, the AA will be close- though less close if Iordache actually rocks all of those upgrades. Look at the depth of USA, Sarah Finnegan and Elizabeth Price have HUGE d-scores...as alternates! Here we have in black and white exactly why Kyla Ross has no hope of the AA, actually worse than I thought- McKayla beats her. D-scores are almost scarily high, we have one and quite possibly two beams out of a 6.9- the same as Shawn Johnson's 2008 very difficult beam, which counted two more elements!
EDIT: Woah big error with Gabby, who does NOT tie with Jordyn. She has several times due to missed connections, but her full potential puts her ahead.
MORE EDIT: All new upgrades and upgrade potential added.
EDIT 25/7- All monster Russian upgrades from training added
The known highest is Gabby. It's worth noting that her bars generally has a d-score of 6.5 or 6.4 in comp, must be a missed connection. Beam also is usually lower by more than a tenth. Romania's scores are varied, highest potential and highest in competition is shown.
Gabby Douglas, USA
Bars: 6.6
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.8
Jordyn blah blah beam in doubt
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Bars: 6.4
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.4 (currently)
Total: 25.5
Aly is right behind. Bars obviously dragging her down, she would beat the other two if she had even Jordyn's bars
Aly Raisman, USA
Bars: 5.9
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.4
Vika with an amanar brings huge difficulty. A DTY obviously hurts her bigtime. It is very very likely we will see the amanar anyway.Floor needs a boost, and that is definitely a possibility- 0.2 confirmed. Beam up by 0.2- WOW.
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.3
Beam: 6.5 UPDATED
Total: 26.3 with amanar, 25.6 with DTY
Larisa will beat them all d-score wise IF she performs all of her potential upgrades and connects them all AND has the amanar. We know she has an amanar, and we know she missed her connections on beam and floor at the Romanian meet. She is the most in question, but she can bring it. The first score is the potential, the second is the highest competed- either pre-upgrades or with missed connections
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Bars: 6.5, 6.1
Vault: 6.5, 5.8
Floor: 6.7, 6.4
Beam: 6.9, 6.7
Total: 26.6, highest possible. Lowest possible is 25. With amanar but using other lowest scores- 25.7. Without amanar but using other highest scores- 25.9, the highest of everyone.
Either way, Larisa is a huge threat that shouldn't be dismissed. 26.6 would be awesome, 26 itself is probably the most realistic IN competition.
Yao Jinnan won bronze in the 2011 Worlds AA, even counting a fall from beam. Without the fall, she would have won and ended the controversy between Jordyn and Vika. Injured this year on a DTY, she is still expected to be a strong contender. However, it is highly unlikely she will bring the creme de la creme, the amanar.
Yao Jinnan, China
Bars: 6.8 7.2 rumoured!
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.4 6.6 full potential UPDATE
Floor: Cannot find d-score. Her routine from worlds was a 6.0. The London test event looked watered down. We'll give her the benefit of the doubt with a 6.0
Total: Assuming 6.0 on floor and beam update, 25.2 25.6 with rumoured 7.2 bars and beam update
Aliya has been eclipsed by others, but is by no means out of the running. Her vault is unknown, she has a DTY but flinging an amanar is possible. I will do it for both. She is likely to at least attempt upgrades on beam and floor. UPDATE: amanar confirmed.
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Total:26.2 WOW Musty brings it with all of those updates. 25.9 with no floor upgrade, 25.7 without the beam upgrade either
Here's how some others stack up, including some who aren't actually in the running for AA.
Anastasia Grishina, Russia
Bars: 6.5
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.3 UPDATE 6.5
Floor: 6.1
Total: 24.5 with 5.8 floor and 6.3 beam. 24.9 with all upgrades
Huang Qiushang, China
Bars: 6.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.4
Floor: 6.0
Total: 25.7 with all upgrades 25.4 without
McKayla Maroney, USA
Bars: 5.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.1
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.4
Elizabeth Price, USA
Bars: 6.3
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.7
Kyla Ross, USA
Bars: 6.4
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.2
Floor: 5.5
Total: 23.9 With amanar (unlikely) 24.6
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Bars: 5.8 (other possible d-score unknown)
Vault: 6.1 OR 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.1 OR 6.5
Total: Lowest possible: 23.9 Highest possible: 24.7
Sarah Finnegan, USA
Bars: 5.8
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.9
Floor: 6.3
Total: 24.8
IN ORDER, using highest potential scores:
Larisa Iordache (26.6)
Viktoria Komova (26.3)
Aliya Mustafina (26.1)
Gabby Douglas (25.8)
Huang Qiushang (25.7)
Yao Jinnan (25.6)
Jordyn Wieber (25.5)
Aly Raisman (25.4)
Sarah Finnegan and Anastasia Grishina (24.8)
Elizabeth Price and Sandra Izbasa (24.7)
Kyla Ross (24.6)
McKayla Maroney (24.4)
The order for lowest potential and comp d-scores is too confusing now, and kind of hard because even with the Americans with their known d-scores have been falling short of them all year. It's more interesting to just do 'highest potential'. NOTE: This list changes if some of these upgrades don't happen (Yao Jinnan's 7.2 bars for one..) and also changes if connections don't happen- not only are Romanian floors in doubt, so are several beams AND Douglas' bars and beam. Of course, several of these gymnasts are headcases, so falls are always possible. This is NOT taking execution into account at all.
Very, very interesting. As we can see, the AA will be close- though less close if Iordache actually rocks all of those upgrades. Look at the depth of USA, Sarah Finnegan and Elizabeth Price have HUGE d-scores...as alternates! Here we have in black and white exactly why Kyla Ross has no hope of the AA, actually worse than I thought- McKayla beats her. D-scores are almost scarily high, we have one and quite possibly two beams out of a 6.9- the same as Shawn Johnson's 2008 very difficult beam, which counted two more elements!
EDIT: Woah big error with Gabby, who does NOT tie with Jordyn. She has several times due to missed connections, but her full potential puts her ahead.
MORE EDIT: All new upgrades and upgrade potential added.
EDIT 25/7- All monster Russian upgrades from training added
Friday, 6 July 2012
Romania and Russia bring their A-game
Competition is hotting up a bit now. I still think USA will get the gold, but it will be tough especially if Russia don't fall off the beam, a skill they have been showing for quite a while now.
Sandra Izbasa has a Cheng vault, Larisa Iordache has an amanar and Viktoria Komova has one too. Mustafina is extremely likely to have an amanar, and was shown doing a timer for one. All of these were pretty going to happen anyway, but here is the proof. What does this mean for America? Unfortunately it means that Russia's massive bars d-scores and now amanars mean the gap is closing bigtime there for America's vault advantage. However, everyone still has weaknesses. Let's look at them.
America- Has no obvious weakness. Yes, bars are not a strong point but they are very decent in comparison to Romania. It would help if Gabby could up her D-score to 6.9, but nevertheless, even Jordyn's d-score is now a 6.4. Beam is good and strong, and nobody is likely to headcase and fall off. Two aggressive routines with high d-scores, and one beautiful artistic one. Vault obviously one of the strongest points- McKayla's vault will score more than 16, NOBODY else will touch that. Her vault will make shit of sloppy amanars elsewhere, which is great for her score. If she wasn't there, amanar scores would be more generous. Jordyn's amanar is very reliable, with great form and landings. Gabby's is getting better all the time, a bit flat but well landed with good form. Floor another strong point- Aly has the highest d-score of all with an AWESOME first pass, one of the most difficult ever. Form likely to take a hit, lucky the difficulty is massive. Jordyn's is strong, clean and difficult. I do think McKayla's should be here, and it's a 6.0 with artistry, it will score well.
Romania- It's amazing how much they have come on. Iordache is decent on bars, everyone else is weaker. They will fall down bigtime here. Vault has picked up a lot. Iordache's amanar looks clean and safe and fully rotated, with not a bad landing. It doesn't look sloppy. Sandra's Cheng looks messy and low, unlikely to break more than a 15.7 as it stands, but the video wasn't made yesterday and she has time to improve it. Same goes for Iordache. It's unknown whether they have a second amanar, but Bellu has hinted at more than one. Ponor appears to be the likely candidate for this. If not, they have a big deficit there against USA if they have to count a DTY. America will outscore significantly on vault, as they have the best amanar in the world and two very clean ones. Beam is their strong point- very high SV's, Iordache is probably the best beamer in the world right now, along with Sui Lu. Beam is traditionally awesome and Ponor and Iordache in particular will do very well here. Floor looks good- Iordache is likely to outscore Raisman as she has better form, and is only one tenth down in diffculty. The two routines will match America. Consider floor equal, beam better, bars and vault worse. However- consistency is their midde name, they can win if someone else falters.
Russia- Here we have extremely strong bars, more than a point over USA and even more over Romania. Not even China can get close. Komova and Mustafina both have beautiful 7.0 bars that will score extremely well, possibly breaking the 16 mark. Grishina's are a very respectable 6.5, which Romania would kill for. Vault is a bit more up in the air. Komova's amanar is neat with very good form, it is likely to outscore pretty much every other, except Maroney of course. Certainly it looks like it can rival Jordyn, Gabby and Larisa. It looks like Mustafina will have one too. Mustafina of the clean DTY, frightening helicopter-legs amanar and of the ACL on the same skill. Let us hope she can land it safely every time, with NO locked legs. Even before the injury she was doing that. It will be shot in execution, but the 0.7 is has over the DTY isn't to be sneezed at but even so, it's likely to be the messiest one we'll see in London. It is unclear whether Russia have another amanar. If not, using a DTY and Musty'a messy amanar will hurt them and seriously eat into their bars advantage. I predict Romania to score higher on vault, and USA to outscore Romania by a comfortable lead. Likely beamers are Komova, Musty and Grishina. Both Vika and Grishina have fallen off beam a LOT in the last year. Their beams are beautiful, if they fall it will hurt their scores a lot. If they stay on, they are a massive threat. Musty's looks better every time, but she is uncertain on it too. Floor is a weakness. Musty's tumbling isn't near as clean as it used to be, and that twisting ability has really deteriorated when it was already bad before. Komova's floor is weak and she has low landings which will cost her. If Afan makes the team she will go ahead of Musty I think, but although her and Grishina's floors are awesome, the SV is several tenths below what USA and Romania are bringing.
In short:
Russia- Vault- Good, Floor- Weak, Bars- Super strong, Beam- Potentially strong
Romania- Vault- Strong, Floor, Strong, Beam super-strong, Bars- very weak
USA- Vault- super strong, Floor- Strong, Beam- Strong, Bars- weak
In short, I think Russia could take it if they counted no mistakes, but they are the one country where it is almost a certainty, much more so than the other two. I still see USA taking the gold. Romania is uncertain- they are stronger than ever and will be fierce challengers. How exciting! I cannot WAIT!
In AA news, this means that Gabby, Jordyn, Larisa, Vika, Huang and almost certainly Musty have amanars. Yao Jinnan is unknown, China have only confirmed Huang. I predict Larisa and Vika will fight the USA fiercely here, it's impossible to call. I no longer see both Gabby and Jordyn as podium almost certainties.
Sandra Izbasa has a Cheng vault, Larisa Iordache has an amanar and Viktoria Komova has one too. Mustafina is extremely likely to have an amanar, and was shown doing a timer for one. All of these were pretty going to happen anyway, but here is the proof. What does this mean for America? Unfortunately it means that Russia's massive bars d-scores and now amanars mean the gap is closing bigtime there for America's vault advantage. However, everyone still has weaknesses. Let's look at them.
America- Has no obvious weakness. Yes, bars are not a strong point but they are very decent in comparison to Romania. It would help if Gabby could up her D-score to 6.9, but nevertheless, even Jordyn's d-score is now a 6.4. Beam is good and strong, and nobody is likely to headcase and fall off. Two aggressive routines with high d-scores, and one beautiful artistic one. Vault obviously one of the strongest points- McKayla's vault will score more than 16, NOBODY else will touch that. Her vault will make shit of sloppy amanars elsewhere, which is great for her score. If she wasn't there, amanar scores would be more generous. Jordyn's amanar is very reliable, with great form and landings. Gabby's is getting better all the time, a bit flat but well landed with good form. Floor another strong point- Aly has the highest d-score of all with an AWESOME first pass, one of the most difficult ever. Form likely to take a hit, lucky the difficulty is massive. Jordyn's is strong, clean and difficult. I do think McKayla's should be here, and it's a 6.0 with artistry, it will score well.
Romania- It's amazing how much they have come on. Iordache is decent on bars, everyone else is weaker. They will fall down bigtime here. Vault has picked up a lot. Iordache's amanar looks clean and safe and fully rotated, with not a bad landing. It doesn't look sloppy. Sandra's Cheng looks messy and low, unlikely to break more than a 15.7 as it stands, but the video wasn't made yesterday and she has time to improve it. Same goes for Iordache. It's unknown whether they have a second amanar, but Bellu has hinted at more than one. Ponor appears to be the likely candidate for this. If not, they have a big deficit there against USA if they have to count a DTY. America will outscore significantly on vault, as they have the best amanar in the world and two very clean ones. Beam is their strong point- very high SV's, Iordache is probably the best beamer in the world right now, along with Sui Lu. Beam is traditionally awesome and Ponor and Iordache in particular will do very well here. Floor looks good- Iordache is likely to outscore Raisman as she has better form, and is only one tenth down in diffculty. The two routines will match America. Consider floor equal, beam better, bars and vault worse. However- consistency is their midde name, they can win if someone else falters.
Russia- Here we have extremely strong bars, more than a point over USA and even more over Romania. Not even China can get close. Komova and Mustafina both have beautiful 7.0 bars that will score extremely well, possibly breaking the 16 mark. Grishina's are a very respectable 6.5, which Romania would kill for. Vault is a bit more up in the air. Komova's amanar is neat with very good form, it is likely to outscore pretty much every other, except Maroney of course. Certainly it looks like it can rival Jordyn, Gabby and Larisa. It looks like Mustafina will have one too. Mustafina of the clean DTY, frightening helicopter-legs amanar and of the ACL on the same skill. Let us hope she can land it safely every time, with NO locked legs. Even before the injury she was doing that. It will be shot in execution, but the 0.7 is has over the DTY isn't to be sneezed at but even so, it's likely to be the messiest one we'll see in London. It is unclear whether Russia have another amanar. If not, using a DTY and Musty'a messy amanar will hurt them and seriously eat into their bars advantage. I predict Romania to score higher on vault, and USA to outscore Romania by a comfortable lead. Likely beamers are Komova, Musty and Grishina. Both Vika and Grishina have fallen off beam a LOT in the last year. Their beams are beautiful, if they fall it will hurt their scores a lot. If they stay on, they are a massive threat. Musty's looks better every time, but she is uncertain on it too. Floor is a weakness. Musty's tumbling isn't near as clean as it used to be, and that twisting ability has really deteriorated when it was already bad before. Komova's floor is weak and she has low landings which will cost her. If Afan makes the team she will go ahead of Musty I think, but although her and Grishina's floors are awesome, the SV is several tenths below what USA and Romania are bringing.
In short:
Russia- Vault- Good, Floor- Weak, Bars- Super strong, Beam- Potentially strong
Romania- Vault- Strong, Floor, Strong, Beam super-strong, Bars- very weak
USA- Vault- super strong, Floor- Strong, Beam- Strong, Bars- weak
In short, I think Russia could take it if they counted no mistakes, but they are the one country where it is almost a certainty, much more so than the other two. I still see USA taking the gold. Romania is uncertain- they are stronger than ever and will be fierce challengers. How exciting! I cannot WAIT!
In AA news, this means that Gabby, Jordyn, Larisa, Vika, Huang and almost certainly Musty have amanars. Yao Jinnan is unknown, China have only confirmed Huang. I predict Larisa and Vika will fight the USA fiercely here, it's impossible to call. I no longer see both Gabby and Jordyn as podium almost certainties.
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