Saturday, 13 September 2014

Worlds Predictions

Ahhh, that time of year :D I have a massive advantage on the last one as worlds are actually in a few weeks instead of a year.

I won't do teams as they are all largely in place or with very little room to manouevre, even the US. I will say that I don't see Brenna Dowell on the team. In my mind it's Simone Biles, Kyla Ross, Mykayla Skinner, Alyssa Baumann, Madison Kocian and Ashton Locklear.

Moving on to the fun

The All-Around

1. Simone Biles

Woah, unorthodox choice I know! She hasn't raised the roof on her difficulty level since Antwerp..bars and beam changes probably cancel each other out. What she has done is clean up, she's technically better than ever AND her landings are so much more precise. It will all help. I think she would need to fall and have a significant other error for someone to have a shot at catching up to her.

2. Aliya Mustafina

3. Kyla Ross

I'm not overly confident in the order of these two. Aliya looked super strong at Russian Cup, better overall than last year. Kyla meanwhile has downgraded further. It's hard to know. Larisa HAS upgraded her floor and beam and her bars look stronger than ever...so she could of course feature here. The reason why she doesn't is because she has never gotten it together in the AA when it really counts while the other two are absolute beasts in competition.

4.(th again) Larisa Iordache

5. Vanessa Ferrari

Vanessa still looks very strong. Larisa will fall off beam I think. 

Team Final

1. USA

SHOCKER. It won't be easy as we all would have imagined at the beginning of the year. Losing Ebee, McKayla Maroney and injuries to Peyton Ernst, Maggie Nichols, Lexie Priessman with no Fierce 5 comebacks...it's definitely not a glorious pool of depth. But they still have the goods..even though China technically has higher potential d-scores.

2. China

3. Russia

4. Great Britain

5. Romania

Now I'm really not confident in this..but at the moment it makes the most sense. China have killer, and I mean killer, bar routines. Their lowest d-score out of 4 is 6.7-8. If they all hit then it's a major boost. Likewise with beam, strong potential there as usual. Russia are just...not really a strong team. And just today they have lost Ekaterina Kramarenko. Viktoria Komova will almost surely be on the team now, but they'll still be weak. As ever, Aliya Mustafina does not a team make and she'll be carrying them. The second strongest team member is Maria Kharenkova. Together I can see them dragging the team above the twin onslaught of GB and Romania.

Romania recently spectacularly lost to Germany. It makes me very unsure of how equipped they are to deal with GB. GB are lacking depth in some areas but may still be able to surpass a greatly weakened Romania who didn't even choose a team as there was nobody to leave behind.

GB..hmmm, mystery. I'm not sure what the story is with Raer Theaker and Rebecca Tunney but I got the impression they're not going to be in contention? Gabby Jupp on the other hand is back! This could go either way for them. 4th would be an enormous achievement even with their new strength. 5th is just as likely. Romania veer from 3rd to 5th to me, they don't have 'it' for 2nd this year at least I don't think.

Vault Qualifiers

Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Giulia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Hong un Jong
Phan Thi Ha Thanh
Ellie Black 
Maria Paseka

I'm a little stumped here, I feel a bit out of the loop. Hmmm. *Added Maria Paseka! We could see a suicidal Prod though of course. Perhaps Mahmoud as the last I saw of Pena she didn't look particularly strong and crashed a layout front if I remember correctly.

Bars Qualifiers

Ashton Locklear
Becky Downie
Ruby Harrold
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Kyla Ross

Madison has more difficulty than Kyla, but not as clean.

Floor Qualifiers

Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Larisa Iordache
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Frangapane
Giulia Steingruber
Vanessa Ferrari
Roxana Popa

I haven't seen a huge amount of great floors this year. Mai Murakami is struggling at the moment, I don't see her getting her tumbles back and into this final, sadly.

Beam Final

Larisa Iordache
Kyla Ross
Simone Biles
Aliya Mustafina
Maria Kharenkova
Shang Chunsong
Bai Yawen
Andreea Munteanu 

I'm very confident in this finals line-up, out of all the EF ones.

Vault podium

1. Simone Biles
2. Mykayla Skinner
3. Giulia Steingruber

Ta-dah! So that was straightforward enough.


Bars Podium

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Huang Huidan
3. Becky Downie

Yeah so this is impossible! The Russians have lesser difficulty which could get Becky into the medals if she hits everything for hers. Much like Euros. This is one of those predictions that feels right, but so many variables involved..

Beam Podium

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Maria Kharenkova
3. Bai Yawen

BOOM, Larisa has to hit beam in a final when it actually matters, just once. Maria is quite steady with a lot of difficulty...but I have big issues with silver and bronze. Where is Kyla, how will Bai Yawen be scored, what about Simone's higher difficulty now...all legit concerns. It's a tough one.

Floor Podium

1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Vanessa Ferrari

All 3 of these routines have 6.5 difficulty. Gold is obvious. Not so much the others. I dumped Mykayla Skinner after comments made me look harder at Vanessa Ferrari who I initially forgot about for floor finals altogether and needed reminding from Cordelia Price! Mykayla does have a good shot though at this podium.

Even when we're this close, there's still a huge amount of 'what if'. What's right here, what's definitely wrong? What's downright bizarre? 



47 comments:

  1. I think the team competition could be really interesting this year. Romania will be hurt in quals with 4 counting but should be able to keep it together in TF when just 3 scores need to count. I think GB has the greatest chance of breaking into the top 4/making it a solid 5th. Germany is proving to be strong. Italy is really surprising me right now! Japan might be losing a little steam but they have consistency that other teams, like France can't boast. So they might not have the D but they should be able to execute neatly enough that they'll stay top 8. Then you have other teams like NED, MEX, SWE. Not saying they'll break the top 8 but I think the journey to Rio will be very interesting for teams 9-16 this time around.

    I have come to rescue you on vault! :P For qualifiers, I'd add one of the Prods whether we want to admit it or not - Mahmoud or Pena. Mahmoud may make it given that she recently "landed" and medaled. I'd also add one of Paseka/Sosnitskaya. I'd prefer Alla but obviously, Paseka is capable of beautiful vaults (I thought her best were Universiade). It's just a matter of what will she do in qualifications... That's for the qualifiers. For the finals, I'd love for that to be the podium. We'll have to see if 1. Hong Un Jong surpasses Steingruber again. 2. What the execution judges do with Skinner because maybe, it's a small maybe, Steingruber can sneak into 2nd. Maybe? Pretty please?!

    Thaeker is injured - hurt her ankle I think at CWG. Tunney I keep hearing different things but don't think she was at the last selection camp :/

    I'm hoping Ellie Black can sneak into BB/FX finals. I really hope she gets rid of the 2.5 but something about this routine seems cleaner so hopefully she can make the finals this year again. BB is anyone's guess, as always, but I think she has the D to make it in.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it will be, but also a little sad and scrappy due to a total lack of depth and lots of injuries. Ah well, can't expect everything from a mid-quad worlds. I'm fascinated to see what GB can do.

      Yeah, we could easily get a Prod in the final. Pena didn't seem great last time I saw her? Maybe Mahmoud more likely. Pavlova's difficulty could be edged out by others...Paseka seems a stronger bet. Execution for Skinner in general will be very interesting, but HUJ isn't much better as far as technique goes and Skinner is substantially better in the air so I don't really see them being able to stop her medalling I suppose.

      I'm not sure Black is clean enough for beam finals. Now THAT is going to be a fascinating quals and finals because it could just go so many ways.

      Delete
    2. For vault I hope Pavlova qualifies (in place of Soskitsnaya or Paseka). Perhaps Dipa Karkmakar will land the Produnova again in competition and have a better first vault. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

      Delete
    3. I agree that Dipa's Prod is the best of the 3- and I hope she makes it into the finals.
      (I also hope Pavlova qualifies, but that seems more of a distant hope).

      Delete
    4. Dipa could as easily crash it. I hope they ban the vault rather than see another one in an international final. Nothing against her. Just the code and this vault.

      Pavlova's d-scores are a little low I would think. Definitely a contender though.

      Delete
  2. I think your team predictions are accurate, but I'm hoping to God Romania won't be fifth! They will be hurt in qualifications because their bars are a disaster, but they're not really struggling anywhere else. There was a lot of hype about the Russian team after the Russian Cup, but whether or not they will perform like that once again is questionable because Russia isn't that consistent. Do you think Komova will have her beam and vault back? As for Gabby Jupp, I'm not sure of her chances. She just came back and she's all of a sudden in contention for Worlds?? Does GB not have anyone else? I'm honestly clueless about the Chinese team because I'm only familiar with 3 of their members, so I'm waiting until the Asian Games to truly find out.

    For vault, you could add Pavlova or Sosnitskaya/ Paseka to the final. I'm a little confused on your BB bronze medal prediction. Is Bai Yawen really that good?? What about the newly consistent Mustafina or Munteanu for bronze? But I love that you have faith in Larisa! You know, people say she's inconsistent but we don't really know that because she's injured before every major competition. Hopefully she will be perfectly healthy for Worlds. Do you really think Chunsong will make a floor final? She was scored horribly last year. I would love to consider Roxana Popa for a final but she could throw a perfect floor routine and get like a 14.1. Sometimes I wonder what her scores would be if she were representing Romania...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm also confused. How strong are Russia really? Can China hold it together? Can Romania bounce into the medals despite likely carrying two scores at or under 13? What are GB really strong on other than bars?

      So, in that sense...it's impossible to predict the TF other than gold. There's far too many questions and scenarios and headcases and d-scores and just...everything!

      Bai Yawen has a superb beam routine. However, I'd just as easily see Andreea Munteanu up there, absolutely. Or Kyla, or Simone. Or Mustafina. A bit of homecrowd encouragement could do wonders. That's a very 'liquid' podium for me. The least predictable. But that's beam for you.

      Shang Chunsong's d-score is higher than before, you'll see soon enough :) This is also where some homecrowd advantage could kick in. Even though she is scored horribly, the difficulty once she hits will see her over the line I think. Execution last year on floor in general was harsh, I'm very interested to see what it's like this time.

      Yes, Roxana is scored harshly. She has a good few little things that add up it seems..I'm no code expert and it seems harsh to me. For that reason I don't see her in the bars final. Floor though, I think she could scrape in.

      I think I see Paseka more than the other two APF mentioned also. I'll add her.

      Delete
    2. I think this world championships is going to be about surprises. other than Simone Biles winning the all around. i am not too sure of anything.
      China looks very good and may surprise to me in team competition if the USA makes mistakes on bar s or beam. also in the all around I see Shang Chunsong in the silver medal position if she hits bars, beam, and floor. anyway here are my crazy predictions

      Team final:
      USA gold
      China silver
      Great britain/ Russia/ Romania bronze

      All Around:
      Biles gold
      Chunsong silver
      Mustafina/ Ross/ Jinnan bronze

      Floor:
      Biles gold
      Iordache silver
      Mustafina/ Ferrari/ Frangapane bronze

      Vault:
      Biles gold
      Phan Ti Ha Silver
      Skinner/ Paseka/ Steingruber/Hong bronze

      Beam:
      Mustafina gold
      Yawen/ Kharenkova silver
      Iordache bronze

      Bars:
      Jinnan gold
      Chunsong silver
      Downie/Locklear bronze

      Delete
    3. Wow a lot of this crazy! But I do agree with you that Ferrari has the potential to make the podium on floor.

      Delete
    4. I'd be utterly gobsmacked if China surprised enough to topple the US. Their bars scores are one thing but they have quite a lot to 'hope' for rather than rely on, such as Chen SIyi just in general and a lack of headcase beam sets. And they have some ambitious floor passes also.

      Delete
  3. I think your TF prediction is in line with my prediction. It is going to be a battle between USA and China, and it will be an exciting close one. We know that China has a little bit more difficult than the US, but knowing China's history of choking during finals, small advantage wouldn't cancel a fall(s).

    VT: Advantage US
    Bars: Advantage China
    Beam: Even
    Floor: Advantage US

    Bars is where China can take up a huge lead if they hit, but I think vault for the US should absorb China's bars scores. On beam, they are pretty much even. Ross, Biles, and Baumann can put up pretty good scores. China are beautiful to watch here, but who knows what's going to happen. Floor is definitely where the US can beat China by a mile.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah this is what I'm thinking, although I see China as being further away from equalling the US. Hard to really say though.

      Delete
  4. I'm hoping GB beats Russia for Bronze, but I think USA, China and Russia for TF Podium.

    VT: Qualification will be sort of interesting for vault. Biles, Skinner, Hong, Steingruber, and Chusovitina qualify easily. Pavlova, Soskitsnaya, Paseka, Thi Ha Thanh, Karmakar, Mohamoud, Black and perhaps even Mustafina or Iordache will hope to qualify as well with their vaults. I'm also curious to see if Hong submits the TTY again and even more curious to see if she competes this year.

    UB: Qualifications will be interesting here with Yao vs Huang vs Shang, Mustafina vs Spiridonova vs Komova, and Kocian vs Ross vs Locklear. Downie will make the final, but Harrold may not make the final over the German team (Seitz, Hill, Scheder or Bui). I'm hoping some Germans make it into the final. I think Kocian might enjoy a slight edge over Ross. She beat Ross domestically and at Jesolo.

    BB: Likely a big four contest, but I agree with Arabian Punch for mentioning Black's set. She could make this final if she has a good qualification. Romania's Stanila also looks good on beam, so if Iordache or Munteanu fall I think Stanila should get her spot.

    FX: Biles, Skinner, Iordache, Steingruber, Ferrari, and Fragapane are certain to qualify. The last two spots will be heavily contested between Mustafina, Black, Mitchell, Popa, Shang, and I really liked Jessica Lopez's super clean floor from Pan Ams. I'm hoping Mitchell has an amazing return to form for Worlds and makes the final. She may also have a new leap which would be nice to see (switch leap to ring with 1/1 rotation). I think it has the potential to be a very pretty leap. I'm also wondering what floor routine Skinner will have at Worlds - she has been getting 6.5 for her 6.6 routine, but I can see her adding the triple full back in for 6.8 for finals. That might be enough of an edge to beat Iordache or Ferrari.

    AA: Biles, Mustafina, Yao. Iordache vs Ross for fourth. Shang, Steingruber, and Ferrari round out the top 8.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't imagine Romania in 5th in a lot of ways. And yet...why not? Russia are the hardest to place really.

      Shang Chunsong just isn't as clean on bars as the other two and doesn't consistently get all of her connections, I don't see her in the bars final.

      I don't think Skinner has a more difficult routine in her really.

      Delete
  5. Am I the only one who is feeling so underwhelmed by this Worlds? I do think that the US is not at all a lock for gold, and this will be an incredibly close Worlds. Not because everyone is amazing, but because everyone is kinda sucky. Of course it is still "early" in the quad but I cant help but think that I will be left wanting so much more.

    Bars final will no doubt be the most interesting. I do think that Kocian will outscore Kyla to qualify. Kyla was not given astronomical E scores last year and she has downgraded which won't help. If Komova is chosen to go, she is for sure on my podium. She has the D and execution right in line with the Chinese.

    Beam seems next interesting to me. By the laws of probability Larisa is bound to complete a beam set this year! Hopefully at least. But I do not know if it will be enough to beat the Russian who had similar D's and better execution. I doubt the Chinese will figure in but who knows.

    Vault, though I am unaware of the condition Hong Un Jong is in, I would be shocked if she did not get silver. And I do believe that Steingruber will outscore Skinner. She had a 15.233 last year, a score which will be hard for Skinner to reach.

    Floor, Is it crazy that I think Iordache could outscore Biles? Probably, but I like when the unexpected happens. I really appreciate Iordache for her tumbling and dance and want her to be rewarded for something!! Also Skinner medaling.....eh. I think Ferrari has a better shot. Yes Skinner has a high D but we all know her execution is less than stellar whereas Ferrari is likably clean and has decently expressive dance.

    The AA: Nothing really needs to be said. Biles of course. Musty has the difficulty to get silver this year depending on her ankle. Did you all see her triple Y turn combo at RC? Ahhhh she never fails to impress me. And I think it is high time Iordache gets an AA medal. Especially with the state Romania is in at this point... She definitely has the difficulty. I think Jinnan 4th and Ross 5th.

    Team final will be close between US China and Russia. They all have one star girl without which they would be screwed, followed by a trail of fairly inexperienced girls. I think China has the advantage with their experience, we all know that Skinner, Kocian, Baumann, and Dowell don't have the worlds best consistency. Also the US has a rather bad history of mid quad Worlds. That being said I think I have to put China for gold. They have the difficulty, experience, and homecrowd advantage. I think their National scores give us a much better representation of Worlds scores, and they put up some impressive numbers. I also think people are taking Russia too lightly in view of their loss to GB. Russia seems peaked for Worlds whereas they were in quite raggedy shape at Euros. Kharenkova, Spiridonova and Sosnistskaya has proved themselves very consistent on each of their pet events. Mustafina and Kharenkova can be spectacular on beam and their floor is consistent with China and not far from the US who has Biles as their only good floor worker.

    All in All, I think there will be falls and some very unexpected outcomes. I hope that the girls are properly rewarded for their efforts and that we have no scraggly winners because everyone else fell cough cough Biles' bronze on beam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you might find this worlds more interesting and whelming than you initially let on :)

      Delete
    2. I suppose? In a way there are so many faces missing and that sucks, but then...there's still going to be tense competition in TF and AA and some deep EF competition. It will be interesting to pitch it against 2010 when it's over.

      I agree. We can't really 'call' much at all about this competition. But it's sad that a lot of that is because everybody is weak rather than everybody is strong.

      Delete
  6. This world can be very surprising. For team, I agree that it will be close between the US and China, esp with their home advantage. However, I think the US will squeak by with their consistency and massive advantage on vault and floor over China, though China's UB quite impressive. As for the bronze, I'm going out on a limb and pick GB over Russia. If the British girls can hit, I think they have a good chance over Russia, considering the Russian weakness on floor. As for Romania, so sad about the loss of Bulimar. Now they can only count one UB score above 13, that's Iordache's mid 14s.
    For AA, obviously Biles first. However, I'm picking Iordache over Mustafina and Ross for silver. Just once hoping Iordache can hit in AA.
    VT - Biles again for gold. Silver will be between Hong and Skinner. Giulia can sneak in there.
    UB - tough call, but I'm going with Yao first, Shang/Huang silver and ???Downie/Mustafina/Komova for bronze.
    BB - Iordache for gold. As for the rest of the podium, total tossup among Mustafina(if she can actually connects all of her elements), any of the two Chinese who qualify, Ross/Biles, and Kharenkova.
    FX - Biles gold, Iordache silver and Bronze among Skinner/Ferrari/Shang.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'll bite:

    Team:
    1.) USA
    2.) China
    3.) GB - with Russia and Romania in disarray, GB could seize the moment.

    AA
    1.) Biles
    2.) Mustafina
    3.) Iordache or Ross

    V
    1.) Biles
    2.) Skinner
    3.) I dunno...Phan Thi Ha Thanh?

    UB
    1.) Yao Jinnan
    2.) Huang Huidan
    3.) Mustafina or Downie
    Frankly, if the Chinese girls go 1-2 here, I don't care who takes the bronze.

    BB
    1.) Shang Chunsong
    2.) Bai Yawen
    3.) Iordache
    More wishful thinking than anything else here.

    FX
    1.) Biles
    2.) Fragapane
    3.) Iordache or Ferrari

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oooo that beam gold! Not unless they switch for Chinese Nationals judges XD

      As for Frangapane, she's not clean enough and she's too wild with her landings. I'd be very surprised if she pulled that off.

      Delete
    2. It's Fragapane not Frangapane!

      Delete
  8. Wait, what happened to Kramarenko? My US team would probably be the same as yours, though Lauren over on the gymter. net has made a compelling case for Dowell instead of Kocian

    Here's my predictions I made in a YT post not too long ago. I've modified them a bit because there were certain things that came to mind while reading your post that I hadn't though of before.

    TF
    1. USA
    2. China
    3. Russia

    It's a very tentative prediction. I suspect that the gap between the gold medalists and everyone else will be quite large. The US team is much weaker than past teams. Their weakness is not dire like Romania's, but I'm less positive of a gold now than I was a few weeks ago, though I still favor them to a large degree. China could make a can get up there if, and only if, they have solid DTYs and don't headcase. Their bar and beam scores should buoy them. Russia is looking better this year, but not astoundingly so. Realistically bronze is within their reach. I'm wondering how GB and Brazil will fare.

    AA
    1. Simone Biles
    2. Aliya Mustafina
    3. Yao Jinnan/Laria Iordache

    Another tentative prediction, but I can say it is very likely we will see Biles on top again. Aliya just isn't strong enough to beat her, unless Simone makes a devastating mistake. Larisa could take silver, if it weren't for bars and her inconsistency. If she can clean up on UB and do what she's capable of on the other event she has a chance for silver. She has outrageous difficulty on beam and floor, but Aliya is cleaner and more consistent. Dark horse candidates include Ferrari, with maybe Fragapane making a splash, though probably not on the podium.

    Vault
    1. Biles
    2. Steingruber/Skinner
    3. Hong Un Jong

    Vault has a weak international field. I think Skinner will be deducted heavily for her technique on her Cheng, though her form is usually good. She and Hong Un Jong, who was gifted last year, might be able to glide along on difficulty, though I have no idea what shape Hong is in (does anyone?). If Steingruber does a clean DTY, then she can nab silver, depending on how Skinner is scored. Paseka might get bronze if she can put both vaults to her feet. With the way she has been scored in the past, she doesn't even have to do them that well...

    Bars
    1. Yao
    2. Huang/Mustafina
    3. Komova/Downie

    I forgot Downie in my first prediction, but she can contend. So far, Yao has shown a 7.0 SV and Huang a 6.8. Knowing Aliya, she'll ramp up her difficulty from what she showed at the Russian cup if her body allows it. If Komova is on that team I expect to see her in the mix, at least as a finalist.

    Beam
    1. Iordache
    2. Kharenkova
    3. Mustafina

    I think with Iordache's packed set, it'll be hers to lose. She's been inconsistent on beam. I put Kharenkova ahead of Musty because of her insane SV. Plus, Musty did about a hundred variations of her routine at RC, she'll need to put it together. At the same time Masha is less experienced than Musty. Biles and Bai could very plausibly creep up there if they go clean or someone messes up. The Chinese are as beautiful as ever on this event, but their SV (from the ones I've seen) are a bit lower, which may or may not be a problem. However, their SV are still sufficiently high and their execution outstanding, with Bai being particularly artistic.

    Floor
    1. Biles
    2. Ferrari
    3. Iordache

    Same as last year! This will be an exciting final I think. It's Simone's to lose. All three of the above girl are capable of extremely high difficulty, but there will be others in the mix, like Shang and Murakami. Shang tends to be underscored though despite a high d-score, and Murakami is struggling like you said. Fragapane at the least should be in the finals, along with Steingruber and Nedelcu. It would be cool if one of them could have a podium finish.

    That's it for now. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wait, the russian team lost kramarenko? why? what happend? and komova is in? for sure?

    two days not checking the gymternet for news and i'm already lost XD

    Mareen

    ReplyDelete
  10. Kramarenko twisted her ankle. If she's not out I believe she's majorly in doubt.

    Hmm I really shouldn't have forgotten about Ferrari for floor finalists initially...she does look like a medallist!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Catherine I think all of us feel like when China competes at home there is so much national pride involve that they exceed in their performance. also home advantage with the crowd cheering can be very persuasive and influential both to the home gymnasts and the judges

      Delete
    2. Admittedly Asian Games showed areas of improvement that I hadn't banked on. Such as CSY doing well and landing a vault she's been crashing all year, and improvement from TJX. There were notable headcase moments though. I still think US have the edge. China's '08 team were stronger than this one going in to the competition.

      Delete
  11. I pray baumann can step up and qualify to beam finals that's a dream of mine

    ReplyDelete
  12. I love reading everyone's predictions! What's most interesting is how people perceive the fight between US and China for gold. I don't think it will be near as close as most people are saying. But, you should always prepare to be surprised with this sport I suppose.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At the beginning of this year, I wouldn't have predicted China to be close either. But they have really upgraded and the US has lost some key gymnasts, esp adding a second Amanar to their TF potential. I had always thought that Vault and floor would pull the US away from all the other countries, but now..... I just have memories of the 2012 Olympics where we had so many world champions, yet still lost to China. That home advantage is great. However, I still picked the US over China b/c China still too inconsistent and weak enough on vault and floor.

      Delete
    2. did you mean in 2008 about losing to China

      Delete
    3. My bad. Yes, I meant 2008. Still trying to forget that we lost with Nastia, Shawn, Alicia, and Chelsie on the team. Just go to show how much home field advantage can mean to a team.

      Delete
    4. China were stronger than the US, or equal, in 2008. This year, despite a greatly weaker US than expected, China are weaker still.

      Delete
  13. I think that we can't count Kyla out of the AA just yet... I know it depends on others, but she is consistent and she surprised most people last year (though I'd like to brag that I predicted her silver!).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very true. She can place anything from 2nd to 4th, my money is on 2nd though. She's just.so.consistent. I will completely count her out of gold though. SImone is just too strong and can afford a major error and still win.

      Delete
    2. Fully agree that she's out of the gold spot. I'd say silver too.

      Delete
  14. I think I'm on board with most of your predictions. In fact I don't even think China is a guarantee for silver. Yes they have high scoring potential on some events but they are equally likely to headcase. Their lead AAers are either (1) underscored internationally, and (2) always injured. And most of these girls are either very new, headcases, or both. Also, China is having to use the same team for both Asian Games and Worlds, which is a bit worrying. So I think actually the fight for silver might be more interesting than others think - I probably keep up a bit more with China than most of the gymternet. But then again Russia doesn't have a huge amount of strength unless they have some surprises up their sleeves. So I say Russia safely in for the bronze at least, barring a spectacular breakdown. I don't see it happening for GB this year, their individual scores are not that great and the scores from Teams were downright dreadful. Gabby doesn't seem 100% back to old difficulty, I wonder if Becky D will do more than just bars/beam and they're still lacking on floor difficulty, esp with Hannah Whelan on a decline imo. I see them breaking into the medals next year for sure, but not this year. Romania would've been fighting for silver/bronze with Didi but without I think they might come in behind GB, and I'm not even 100% sure that Italy will definitely be behind them. As a team Italy might have more depth across 4 events and certainly Ferrari as a leader is less likely to fall apart than Lari.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know what, after seeing the Italians results last week, I kinda agree with you. I think Romania is in big trouble, esp with UB. I know I predicted GB for team bronze on the limb, but now I'm starting to rethink my choices, esp with such improvements by the Italians on vault!

      Delete
    2. Italy, yes especially on vault that was interesting. I keep forgetting about them and I really shouldn't. GB still have my attention as the outsiders to break in' to the top 4 but we'll see.

      Asian Games were encouraging re: China. Russia's new changes have brought China up a little further, a little more having the silver edge in my view. Bars are phenomenal, vault better than expected. Beam will improve quite a bit on yesterday and floor...Shang has more up her sleeve. Chen Siyi was better than I had hoped for, thankfully.

      Delete
  15. I would like to put my two cents in as well

    Team
    1. China
    2. USA
    3. Russia
    4. GB
    5. Romania
    6. Italy
    7. Germany
    8. Japan

    I keep changing my mind between China and USA I think on the one hand the US team are somewhat weakened and lacking experience and the Chinese will have the home crowd on their side to lift them. On the other hand the Chinese can be inconsistent and could be tired from the Asian games.

    Also I think Romania could be in big trouble and could well be beaten both GB and Italy. especially with them now being without bitang and belu.

    All Around
    1.simone biles
    2.larissa lordache
    3.aliya mustyfina
    4.kyla ross
    5.yao jinnan
    6.shang chungsong
    7.ellie black
    8.vanessa ferrai

    vault
    1.simone biles
    2.giulia steingruber
    3.mykala skinner
    4.noel van klavern
    5.phan thi ha thanh
    6.larrissa lordache
    7.anna pavlova
    8.ellie black

    With noel now out with injury I think Oksana Chusovitina or Claudia Fragapanne will make vault final

    bars
    1.yao jinnan
    2.aliya mustifina
    3.becky downie
    4.ashton locklear
    5.huidan huang
    6.daria spiridonova
    7.lisa hill
    8.madison kochin

    I feel that mustifina's experience will help her here. I also think one of the Chinese will fall due to competing Asian games and Worlds back to back and being tired by the end of the meet.

    beam
    1.maria kharenkova
    2.larissa lordache
    3.aliya mustifina
    4.lauren mitchell
    5.shang chungsong
    6.andrea mutenau
    7.bai yawen
    8.kyla ross

    floor
    1.simone biles
    2.mykala skinner
    3.larissa lordache
    4.vanessa ferrai
    5.aliya mustifina
    6.shang chungsong
    7.giulia steingruber
    8.claudia fragapanne

    ReplyDelete
  16. I love watching gymnastics and tumbling. I used to be a gymnast. I can't wait for the Olympics to come back around so I can watch the best of the best perform! Go USA!
    Emily Smith | http://www.brownslv.com/descriptions/

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hmmm.... definitely a weird worlds. All I can say is I think Simone is a lock for floor, vault and AA gold. Wonder what will happen for all the other places.

    ReplyDelete
  18. So it's official: Simone biles, Kyla Ross, Mckayla Skinner, Madison Kocian, Ashton Locklear, Alyssa Baumann and Madison Desch have been selected. It's likely Desch will be made the alternate, considering what the other girls can contribute and how much Desch has faded. Dowell was not able to get it together for camp, if she had she might have gotten in instead of Kocian or Desch (though I much prefer Kocian personally). I've never been a fan of hers but it's very sad to hear. She has such rotten luck when it comes to the WC!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've read online that Brenna competed AA at camp and hit. Although it's rumour at this stage.

      Delete
    2. I'm not so sure. She might have but, either way, whatever she did wasn't good enough. She got gypped last year and this year it was just plain rotten luck, but I think this team is right. Apparently, Dowell has been made non-traveling alternate.

      Delete
    3. Poor girl. I wasn't particularly surprised as Marta is not one for last-minute shows of strength. But, it's sad.

      Delete
  19. I feel like I cannot properly predict everything until all the major teams are named and Russia is still uncertain. As of today Afanaseva is out and Poling Fyodorova is in to compete with Nabieva for the last spot. She is said to be a beam specialist and Russia badly needs a vault/floor girl. I cannot assess where they would fall in team finals because the team is not finished being named. That also impacts event finals because unfortunately their team is not known for their conditioning and stamina. If Aliya and a few others carry the team all competition will they still have it in them to win when event finals roll around? Just something I'm worried about and factoring in.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very much so uncertain. But, considering they need visas in place I'd say the team is in place now. Certainly they will seriously struggle in quals with the 4th spot. Aliya and Maria will be carrying the team and yes, they could easily have their EF performances compromised as a result. It's well known they lack conditioning as a team.

      Delete