Monday, 17 August 2015

Nationals

I'm going to do this post differently to the usual, I've tried twice and both times gotten completely bogged down in it. Definitely some post-Nationals exhaustion going on- GMT makes it an ordeal! So I'll do it in a Q&A format, mixing up juniors and seniors. Feel free to add questions in the comments and I'll stick my view at the top of this post.

Are you happy with the order of the junior podium?

Ideally I'd like Deanne Soza on it. She is everything....except competitive fire but she has time for that hopefully. I was sort of rooting for Jazmyn as the underdog as she really surprised me even though she already has last year's title. But she gave it away on floor...although they only took 0.2 for her out of bounds when it should have been 0.4 but that was enough. Not that I don't love Laurie. Ragan has improved a ton, really enjoying her beam and floor in particular. A pity her bars are letting her down and her vault block is still dodgy but the vaults themselves are secure. So yes, I'm happy with the podium.

Shouldn't Gabby Perea and Morgan Hurd have made the national team?

Although Gabby would have had she not fallen, I doubt either of their coaches expected it at this point of the season so it's unlikely the girls fully expected it if they hit. Gabby is so young and although Morgan is 2001, she hasn't been elite that long and her routines are still getting there, her difficulty is quite low. The spots will be saved for seniors but next year when only Jordan Chiles will be on the NT, they'll be added. Probably at January camp.

Cute incoming! Copyright USAG/John Cheng

What's wrong with Kyla Ross?

Seems to be endurance. Whether it is her typical reduced endurance compared to others or is directly related to a niggling injury is impossible to know. Worlds is still 2 and a bit months away which is a lot of time. There's no point in writing her off at this point. If she is consistent at September and selection camp she could make the team. She may be better off taking a break and focusing on Rio though.

Who should be the second all-arounder at worlds based on Classics and Nationals?

Gabby I think. I am torn between her and Aly for it. Aly's bars duhhh are a weak point but they are better than before and they score decent internationally so they mightn't be a hindrance. Her amanar though...needs to improve or be dumped as it's currently not worth doing. If anyone can though I think she can. Not that it will be beautiful but I expect it to be secure. On the other hand, Gabby showed consistency and is strong everywhere. She wasn't perfect but there was nothing worrying. It's possible she could bring her amanar back. But Aly is soooo reliable and has a monster floor to balance out bars. Hmm.

Why was Nia's d-score on floor so low on Day 2 when she hit her passes?

She didn't do the front full before the double tuck, so she lost 0.5. Not too sure if that was intentional or if she realised she was slightly off and it would have killed the pass. Nor did she do it Day 1 but the judges closed their eyes and awarded it 5.7. Sigh.

Favourite junior Texas Dreams army member?

Emma Malabuyo I think. She is just lovely. Abigail Walker is too cute, so tiny!

Biggest surprise this junior season?

Jazmyn. I really thought she would fall back, seeing as she won last year in the absence of Bailie and Laurie. Although she's lacking a standout event - at least until she gets more comfortable with her tumbling - she is super strong, and so consistent. A mini Aly in the making. Would love to see her clean up her foot form on bars though. Sydney Johnson-Scharpf was a nice surprise too. After creating a buzz a few years back, she seemed to be fading and was plagued with inconsistency and dreadful bars. Major improvement even though she still fell. While her bars will never be pretty, they're noticeably better. And her floor complete with Dos Santos is amazing! Delighted she is back in the game.

Best improvement between Classics and Nationals, junior and senior?

Brenna Dowell. WOW. Fluke falls on both events at Classics...to killer AA sets both days. Hands down on bars day 2 but doesn't really take away from her achievement. To go from training only 20 hours a week during college with just a few elite skills retained to this is incredible. I'm beyond impressed. Delighted she's been invited to the selection camp but unfortunately, US depth is more than likely going to squeeze her out, again.

Brenna is perfection. Copyright USAG/John Cheng

What about Laurie's floor?

I....don't like it. It has grown on me slightly but I can't like it. I've defended her style a billion times but this one crosses the line for me, I think it's her facial expressions. So unnecessary. She also has far too many static exaggerated poses that interrupt the flow. I'd like her to draw back a bit.

Just say no. Copyright- USAG/John Cheng

Feelings on Jordan Chiles?

Jordan is enormously talented with killer potential. She unfortunately remains extremely inconsistent. I thought she would have progressed more as a competitor and I think the amanar was a bad decision. I'm unsure if she will be made as much as she could be at her current gym.

Most shocking fall?

It's a toss up between Simone on floor or Aly on beam. The solidest of the solidest on super-strong events for them. Just plain weird.

Saddest fall?

A good few contenders but I'm going to go with Gabby Perea on beam. She was doing so well! And she's so young with gymnastics beyond her years in terms of precision and polish.

How about that shamrock leo?

I for one am THRILLED it wasn't mentioned in the broadcast. Either the trio did their geography lessons or didn't need to, which would be better again. I don't expect people outside of the British Isles to understand the complicated make-up of the UK and how Republic of Ireland is NOT in it but part of Ireland is blah blah...but if you're pandering to Glasgow as the host city with your music and plan on incorporating colours etc....then you need to get these right. Pandering is fine with me, once some very basic research is done. Although I'm sort of hoping she makes the team and wears a leo with a big Welsh dragon on it because that would be hilarious LOL.

How about the senior podium?

Well gold was a given. Interesting that Simone has increased the lead she had in 2014 with a fall, and with fantastic competitors who weren't around then. Silver and bronze were very much up for grabs and I thoroughly enjoyed that fight. I was delighted for Maggie who was the model of consistency and of course, continuing to show her crazy improvement on 2013-2014. And it was great to see Aly up there too looking like she never left.

Most baffling composition/skill?

Bailie Key's beam! The layout caused major issues day 1 and she was still short day 2 even with the obvious extra effort that went into it. Clearly, they've worked out that this is her best option. I think if she could hit bhs-loso-loso then she'd have it, it's the obvious choice and is valuable this code. The layout needs to become a pike so she can land it seeing as it will never get layout credit anywat and she can work up d-score on turns and leaps, or they could try out bhs-arabian if she has the lift for that. Or arabian-walkover. Something.different.please. Her dismount needs to be dumped too, she gets no set on it and the deep landing is a killer. If she can't get the triple full around, I wonder could she do a 2.5? Or even a double tuck, for a better landing.

Skill-wise, the wolf turn. Although it was everywhere in varying levels of competence, the worst was Texas Dreams. Not one of them can do it, and yet they all do. I get the thinking behind it, I know it's valuable. But it's also a crime.

Favourite junior beam?

Ragan Smith. A joy to watch. So confident and solid, and difficult too. Except the wolf because of course that was hideous.

Pick a worlds team based on Nationals?

A lot can happen in the next 2 months. Simone duhhhh. Aly, Gabby and Bailie. That's really all that is needed to decimate the field. As I said before, I'm hesitant to include Mykayla for a vault medal when that's not really guaranteed. Pretty deep field there. I'm taking Maggie as a guaranteed solid team player usable anywhere, and has an amanar for TF. Number 6 is one of Mykayla, Madison or Kyla. Impossible to call.

Who has shown the best comeback thus far between Aly and Gabby?

In competition, Gabby. Not without flaws, but not with falls or dodgy errors either. Shows room for upgrades nearly everywhere except floor, I think that's maxed. But she has looked extremely dodgy in PT, whereas Aly has looked amazing all of the time in training, and was great in Jesolo. She has actually increased the height on her tumbles and has worked hard to improve problem areas. Aly edges it, barely.

What are Nia's chances this year and next?

Slim. Not making Pan Ams was damning. I'm glad she had good performances at Nationals and am hoping she can add back some of her difficulty and get her form back on track, it's definitely deteriorated. She still shows crazy potential but I'm not sure with the depth that she'll get the chance to shine this quad especially with so much to work on still. She is also seriously injury prone.

Favourite senior bars?

Ashton Locklear. I prefer her line on bars to Madison.

Thoughts on Emily Gaskins?

She's not standing out, and has deteriorated unfortunately. I don't see a whole lot happening for her and I don't think all of the gym changing has helped at all, rather the opposite.

Favourite under-the-radar senior?

Lauren Navarro. Not a good competition for her but I really love her beam.

Junior?

Emma Malabuyo. She has stunning work. Also Trinity Thomas, she's quite powerful without being wild.

Best redemption from last year?

Cristina Desiderio. She fought bars and won, so pleased for her and a well deserved 5th place.

Fiercest routine?

Simone's Day 2 beam needs to be mentioned. The determination and almost anger was brilliant to watch. Taking absolutely no nonsense from the beam with a much smoother barani landing after awful trouble all week, and cements it all with a stick. Amazing.

Most impressive on floor - Simone or Aly?

They are both ridiculous. I can't pick.

180! Copyright USAG/John Cheng
Worst overscore

Jazmyn receiving only half of the OOB deduction that she should have done. It was way too obvious for that to be excusable, ridiculous. Or Simone's vault which was not as good as Day 1 and wasn't stuck....scoring higher, receiving the stick bonus. I almost forgot, just like the judges, Nia received CR for a requirement she did not fulfill on floor Day 1.

Major future talent that underwhelmed?

Morgan Hurd. Not that she wasn't noticed, just related really to the low difficulty she has. But she has got it all. Also I am majorly hoping Deanne Soza gets it together. Have you SEEN how perfect she is? These two are the queens of form and technique AND they are both from unknown gyms.

Most bad-ass moment?

Aly landing an amanar with her leg completely locked in a stance that would break so many....and no big deal, not affected. Surreal almost.

So what's Simone's next step?

Further world domination. The 2015 AA and FX titles, and VT (upgrade dependent maybe for gold again?) and BB medallist. Record breaking 4-time National champion next year, and another haul in Rio. Un-freaking-believable gymnast. We should never 'call' anything or any medals but once she's there, that's it.

Gymnastics-wise, I'm sure they'll be firming up that barani. Possibly a bit late for the Mustafina bars dismount, so I doubt we'll see that or the potential Khorkina this year. I think the Cheng is quite possible, since it was planned for this year.

Most important thing to take away from this meet?

The seniors are aiming to peak in October. The juniors are getting podium experience, trying out typically a lot of upgrades and tweaked routines and it does not matter if they splat all over the place, unless they never do anything but.



There were just so many great leotards going on. They're going to get their own post. As I mentioned at the top, if you want to ask me any questions directly I'll edit them into the post. Hard to think of all aspects of what I watched.

Who made your week? Or broke your heart? Favourite routines? Biggest surprise? Favourite lack of geographical knowledge embarrassment?















37 comments:

  1. I think the Worlds Team is pretty obvious. Biles and Nichols likely to be the 2 AAers unless Douglas brings back her amanar. Raisman has that scary amanar and was hugely over scored during Nationals, her none of her routines would have scored that high at Worlds, particularly her vaults, whereas Nichols had decent scoring. Either way, one of them will be the second AAer. Kocian will make the team as EF specialist, Skinner is useless as she is not guaranteed a vault medal like last year, and is poor on all other events, and even if she stopped falling on bars, Kyla is useless as well. Last spot going to Key who again, pretty unnecessary beyond qualifications. Maybe they can use her bars instead of Biles. Even with their weaknesse's they should have a fairly easy time winning the team comp.
    Check out this 2015 Gymnastics World Championships Preview :)
    https://youtu.be/q46W0GnUBTk

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    1. I think its funny that you say she is useless after qualifications when she can be potentially used in TF on all 4 events (if amanar) she can out score Maggie as of now on bars beam and floor.

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    2. Nah, I don't think Maggie will be the 2nd all arounder. She may not do the AA in quals even...depends on room needed for specialists etc. Aly or Gabby would be 'the' pick. Maggie by contrast is relatively untested and has no international reputation. She's not top on any event and her execution will go down internationally more than the others will. She has quite a few niggly form issues that will add up.

      Ideally I'd love Aly, Gabby, Maggie and Bailie to compete AA in quals for the fight for number 2 AA. This means no room for specialists to make EF though of course.

      Kocian is not guaranteed a medal either. In fact she is equally unlikely. Russia and China will have first dibs on those and possibly one or two others. Her form while very good isn't as sharp as some of the others, or even Locklear herself, and for that she'll lose valuable tenths. She also has a long long history of fragility and injury, and isn't known for consistency. Nor is she of use on any other event. She's by no means a shoe-in.

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    3. It's also interesting to think about why we send that 6th person to Glasgow. To gather more EF medals? To get the highest possible TF score? To insulate even more against injury risk? To give someone promising some international experience? I actually think Ashton - unlike Maddie K - would have a reasonable chance at a UB bronze, but I just think there's no way in hell she's getting anywhere near a Rio team as a 1.5-event gymnast, so is it worth sending her when someone else could get useful experience for the following year? MyKayla likewise could get a VT medal (although she seems less strong than last year, and the field will be much more competitive), but is she a factor for Rio? (maybe... we still don't have the 3 solid 6+ VTs that Martha craves). Is the 6th spot a reward for whoever has been performing the best out of the rest of the national team? (I don't care for Madison K but she deserves so much credit for hanging in there as an AA and performing well despite being constantly injured).

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    4. I actually think Ashton will make the team over Madison because she can bring in the bigger number and has a better chance at a medal. And when you talk about people who may be promising I can't help but think about Nia and Rachel who I think lacks experience and can be huge AA threats in the future.

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    5. Ashton isn't even on the national team and Kocian can cover any event if need be. I never said the Kocian is guaranteed a medal. The US does not have a deficit on vault so Skinners only purpose would be to medal in EF, where's Kocian can actually contribute on an event where the US is lacking. Why would Maggies execution go down more the Bailies? The US judges conveniently ignored her under rotation and sloppy legs on floor and beam, and she is much less expressive the Maggie. Idk, it seems to me they Maggie has proved herself time and time again, 2nd at nationals but that's still not enough for people who are fans of Bailie even though she has not lived up to her Junior reputation and underwhelmed at both Classics and Nationals. People were saying that she'd give Biles a run for her money LOL. I just don't see her appeal. She's another Kyla Mcboring Ross to me, but to each their own. And I don't think that it's fair to assume that Gabby and Aly will succeed just because they were internationally tested 3 years ago, gymnastics is such an unpredictable sport, to judge someone on their performances 3 years ago doesn't seem logical to me.

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    6. They'd never put Madison up on anything except bars, and the US are now so far ahead that they don't need the tenths she'd add to bars in TF when taking her means 5 all-arounders can't compete...and she's so unlikely to bring home an EF medal. Skinner is not guaranteed to medal in hers either, so I'm not putting one above the other, yet.

      Bailie is very, very clean. Her beam is a huge letdown but most elements are technically great. She always scores well no matter where she is. Maggie as I mentioned has tiny execution errors that add up- her bars in particular will suffer. It's things like her form on tumbling like the full-in, and leg separations. It doesn't mean she was not fantastic and that she hasn't majorly improved- of course she has, and it's great, but it's a fact that her scores will go down.

      Bailie hasn't come into her own, so far. She showed a lot of signs of it though - floor day 2, bars, vault is a lot better than Classics even. I think her height has hindered her. Injury wouldn't have helped either.

      Who is judging someone on 3 years ago? We are judging them on what they are doing NOW. Nobody puts former Olympic champions on a team if they suck. Both are doing extremely well but of course their long experience - Aly was at worlds 2010 and 2011 too, and Gabby 2011- at major competitions is going to be a help, as well as their reputations, how would they not be?

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    7. Also regarding Maggie, it's just that we don't yet know how Worlds judges will receive her, or how she'll deal with the pressure (probably pretty well based on her recent confident performances, but she hasn't been at the top for very long, so we don't know if her mindset will change once there's higher expectations of her). You CAN judge the past Olympic champions based on 3 years ago just because you have a sense of how they are received internationally when they hit. It's not like anyone is saying that they're inherently better, just that its easier to predict the scores they'll get IF they do well. With Maggie, who is thus far unknown on the World stage, it's less clear. That's not a slight against Maggie.

      And Bailie has some glaringly bad moments for sure, but overall her form is cleaner than Maggie's in terms of the little tenths taken here and there. You can love Maggie and hate Bailie, and Maggie is obviously capable of beating Bailie, but the above is just a straight up fact. Whether international judges are going to hit Maggie for every little thing remains to be seen. They might love her! We don't know yet.

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    8. I understand they might love Maggie but with bailie being cleaner and having more difficulty if they both hit bailie should be on top. And I love how Catherine mentioned the improvement from Classics its only going to get better from with bailie which is pretty exciting. I think she has to get used to her new body. But I think its good she's going through it now instead of next year who knows maybe next year will be her peak which will turn it into a very interesting year. And we aren't saying the judges won't love Maggie she just gives away opportunities for the judges to deduct.

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    9. Agreed. Maggie should get the second AA spot over Aly. Her bars are looking a little better but that Amanar is shit and has to go. Watching her perform it in slow motion and the landing made me cringe.

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    10. good thing all that plyo training really strengthen her knees. That landing probably would've kill anyone else knee (well maybe not wieber).

      I would actually put up a Skinner cheng over aly's current amanar in TF any day. she does it very similar to worlds 2014. they did give her high 15's for it....

      Aly will likely get that amanar back again but that form at P&G is no good.

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  2. Kyla Day 2 beam also deserves mention. It was fantastic! I love me some angry beam. She was so fierce. She just went for it. Great rhythm, so secure, tore up all of her skills and stuck the dismount.

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    1. Yes, great spirit on show there too!

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  3. Sorry for the shameless plug but I finally have a blog of my own! theartofgymnastics.blogspot.com

    Warning: I am totally new to blogging so I have no idea what I'm doing. XD Loved the junior competition. I actually like Laurie's new routine, although I understand completely why you wouldn't. It's not as good as her previous one, but I've overcome most of my reservations, such is my love for this feisty gymnast. I will be relieved if and when she pulls back a bit though. I too am surprised about Jazzy remaining relevant. A lot of time with those surprise winners they fade away, as if sensing the win was a fluke, so props to her for staying the spotlight.

    I swear the surprise of Simone falling on floor was the collective gasp heard round the gymternet. Like, what? It was more shocking to me than Aly's fall, since Simone is, you know, the best gymnast in the world and I am not used to seeing her as anything less. And to fall on floor of places... You know what I love though? How she goes back out there after making mistakes and just fucking kills it. Makes Day One feel like a bad dream. Glad to see the same hold true for Aly, she really played it safe on beam second day. Floor is AMAZING BALLS, I've never seen a split half out of a tumble before. That Amanar, bah. I'm curious, what did you think of Bailie's floor on Day 2? I know you said you really didn't like it, but honestly I love it, it's got this ethereal and weighty oddness to it while being fun and the leo helped the affect.

    Anyone else notice Gabby's weirdly uncertain beam sets? Hope that's not indicative of a downward trend. Also, that floor day 1, she seemed so...sleepy. Brought it back day 2. Marta mentioned wanting Gabby to get her Amanar back. Seems possible. Honestly the senior I was most impressed with was Maggie. Does she have the most show-stopping gymnastics? No, but she is strong utility player and has an endearing quality to her. I'm just so glad to see her hit consistently, she's pretty much stamped her ticket to Worlds. Kyla on the other hand... Kyla still has a chance. It's what she shows at camp that matter most. But going off what we've seen, I'd leave her at home and encourage her to ditch AA altogether and hone in on UB/BB. Day two beam she shows she's till got something. Skinner did that thing again where she gets better at the last minute. It'll be interesting to see what they do with her...

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    1. I'm delighted you have a blog! I'll be lurking/commenting for sure. Ahhh the pleasure of reading great writing!

      Yeah, I was so thrilled for Jazzy. I felt quite dismissive of her last year for not standing out...but now her all-around solidness stands out. And her floor is starting to.

      It's even weirder when she falls when you're bleary-eyed with tiredness at 2:30 AM or so with work in a few hours and you're unsure for a split second if that REALLY just happened because that doesn't happen, with that height. I have to confess...Bailie's floor has grown on me. Somewhat. I still think the dive is awful though.

      I too would like if Kyla took a break. Rio is the goal..

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  4. I am very curious as to what Simone is going to do with her vaults. She's been saying 'I'll be doing the Cheng next time' for a while now. I don't want to push her but I wonder if she'll pull it out at worlds or see it as an unnecessary risk that just adds one more thing to an already packed program.

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    1. Yeah...it's so tantalising! I hope she can do it.

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    2. Were there any recent news about Simone's TTY? I remember like a year ago or si she said marta had given her the green flag to train it. However, I've heard nothing for quite some time. Does anyone know something?

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    3. I've been wondering that too. Lauren opined that the TTY might actually happen after the Olympics since it would be too risky to perform at Rio. If that is so I'll be pretty disappointed, even if it does make sense. My assumption has always been that she'd debut it in 2016 in time for Rio. Honestly, we've become so spoiled with what we expect from Simone. But I can't help myself, I wanna see her do it!

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    4. problem is that simone I think did say she want to do the post Olympic things so that she might or might not be out a whole year. I hope she will not take long because then she might not be able to do 2017 worlds to compete the TTY. I have a feeling she will try for 2 Olympic AA now that she's pro and no longer committed.

      2017 would be the perfect year to try the TTY. Low pressure due to lack of usual depth post Olympics and retirement. I guess she could take a whole year off like gabby aly and come back in 2018 and do the TTY then?

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  5. Simone can't depend on her great e-score to lead her to vt gold. That was very evident last yr. No cheng, no gold guarantee and having to count on others mistake...

    I also agree like Catherine said, 6th spot is likely between Kocian, Skinner, and Ross. I won't be surprised at all if Ross becomes alternate this year..... She would be like the best alternate on any team ever so far.

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  6. Nice write-up. I take issue with your comment that Gabby has shown more in competition than Aly for this reason: Gabby's D scores are mostly much lower than Aly's. If Aly was competing watered-down routines, she probably wouldn't have any errors. We can't really say who is more impressive until they are on a level playing field. I believe the only event where Gabby has more D score is uneven bars and as we all know, thats her best and Aly's worst.

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  7. I think Kyla still COULD earn a spot on the Worlds team, but at this point I kind of wonder WHY she would even want to do that. Unless she seriously straightens out her bars and starts hitting the 6.5 version of her UB, she wouldn't see any individual success or probably any team finals time, and she already has several worlds medals and team medals. I mean yeah it would suck to stay home, but if her goal is Rio and she's already been to two Worlds and an Olympics, seems like it wouldn't be as big a deal. Then maybe if she spent the month and a half before worlds resting her injuries and doing conditioning, PT and specific training, she could be in better shape going into the winter. I'd also drop floor if I were her. It's a shame, because I think she's turned into a beautiful performer, but it's just SUCH a low scoring routine and I think it's almost guaranteed that next year's Olympic team will have three or four extremely strong FX routines on it anyway. I would keep training VT though. Kyla's DTY is a great backup vault to have, especially if one of Laurie, Ragan, or Norah (all comparatively weak vaulters) makes it onto the Rio team, or if Gabby or Bailie fail to get a consistent Amanar. I am such a Kyla fan though that I still believe she does have a (tiny) shot at Rio.

    I think Bailie needs to step it up for next year, although I think her senior debut has been more than respectable. For Rio, though, I think she's the most replaceable by Laurie or Norah at the moment (more Laurie, just because we haven't seen Norah in awhile), if either one makes a big push. I was a little appalled at Bailie's day 2 E-score on bars. She visibly broke from handstand during (I think?) a 1/1 on the low bar - arched back, bent knees, split legs and got a 9.1 E? Are you kidding me? Maybe it was to make up for her relative lowballing on other events. There's certainly issues with Bailie's form lately but it seems like she gets hit for them way more than Maggie or Gabby, for example.

    I also think that Nia has a tiny chance to be next year's dark horse. She hasn't lived up to her potential yet. But it's still possible. And as someone who COULD have VT/UB strengths (with a nice beam and floor)... she could complement someone like Aly nicely.

    Gabby just seems so underwhelming. Like she's doing fine, but I have really big hopes for her. She's so, so talented, but I don't think she has ever reached her potential. And she often performs like she doesn't care that much.

    Maggie... I wonder how she'll score internationally. I think her form is pretty bad. But she improved so much in the last year that maybe she can also bring her form up to snuff. And sometimes I think we exaggerate how international judges will look at gymnasts with messier form. Skinner, and Aly's UB, both score better internationally than domestically, despite all the cries about how they'll be panned. I still think Aly or Gabby will get that 2nd AA spot at worlds though.

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    1. Thank you I feel like I'm the only person saying that Compared to the others ex. Maggie Gabby etc Bailie is being scored very harshly and probably won't get the same treatment internationally. I see Aly as the 2nd AA though it always comes out to be that way and I don't see this any different. Maggie is just that consistent player they can put anywhere but if kyla Madison or Mykayla makes the team she won't compete AA. For example Out of The top 5 she is the 5th person on beam and floor and Aly will do bars in qualifications which mean Maggie won't be. The only place where she can crack the TF lineup is vault.

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    2. I think that Skinner's cheng will actually scores better than aly's amanar at this point. If Skinner go to worlds she should do her cheng over aly's amanar in TF..

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    3. Nia had a huge floor in 2013, if she could get that back, she could easily become the third floor worker and havĂȘ a shot at rio.

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    4. I really think people are underestimating Maggie's potential as an AA threat- yes she does have those little form errors that could add up a bit but placing second at nationals is not a small deal. I definitely see her as higher than 5th on beam and floor (out of the top 5)- her beam and floor are some of the most reliable and she hits consistent mid 14s (yeah, she had that mistake where she stepped out of bounds on floor but she otherwise would've scored 14.45). Gabby was off on beam and very hit-or-miss on floor at nationals (I'm sure she'll fix beam by worlds but I'm not convinced that her spins will ever become that consistent on floor). Bailie's beam day 1 was no good and in general that "layout" of hers is sloppy, and her third pass on floor always gives her trouble. Taking these things into account, Maggie is probably #3 or 4 on both beam and floor as of right now.

      In terms of AA, Maggie placed higher than Bailie at both Classics and Nationals, so I really think she's earned an AA spot at worlds qual. Now, whether she can beat Aly or Gabby for the AA final remains to be seen, and I think Gabby will have big upgrades for worlds. I think if any of the top 5 (Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Bailie) were to be sacrificed from the AA qual lineup it would be Bailie.

      I expect the worlds team will be those top 5 mentioned above + Skinner/Kocian/Ross depending on how the three perform in the next two months. Right now I'm kinda leaning towards Skinner because she can potentially contribute on VT and FX (though I'm not a fan of her music/performance there) in TF, whereas Kocian would only do UB. Skinner also has a decent-ish backup beam. Plus, she has a shot at a VT medal (although not likely) and would pretty much automatically qualify for that final, while Kocian- if she makes a mistake in quals- could possibly be edged out by Gabby and Bailie/Simone for UB finals.

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  8. Did anyone who watched podium training saw brenna warm up her front layou + double front on floor? I was quite disappointed she didnt compete it

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  9. I'm with you on Laurie's floor. Those facial expressions are so painfully obviously choreographed! Apparently Maggie didn't want to choreograph to the music, and it doesn't surprise me based on how this choreography compares to her others. Too bad, this music could have been FABULOUS for Laurie.
    And UGH I'm also with you on Simone's vaults. Day 1 was obviously better but she gets a 9.9 day 2? OKAY.

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  10. I'm not a Mykayla fan, but it's kind of disappointing how everyone is counting her out she has potential to contribute on floor and vault for the team. She was still able to get third on floor despite the ridiculous scoring that went on day 1, her d score should have been 6.5, as was awarded day 2. And behind Simone and Aly (floor) Mykayla's the only other US member who I feel mostly confident about earning an event medal barring any falls. Internationally none of the other potential vault medalist have been able to best her score from last years finals, and even only taking scores from this year into account, she's still ranked 3rd among all vaulters. Plus the fact that she tends to score higher internationally on vault then she does domestically.

    As for Aly I really don't like her floor, choreography aside, we'd finally gotten away from leaps out of every pass and here she comes bringing it all back again. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if the DLO isn't eventually connected to a split leap. Then on beam the bent knees on her back handspring just irritates me, added to her questionable connections and underrotated full split leap, I see this score going down at Worlds. And honestly, her vault is so bad I used Kyla's DTY before Aly's amanar.

    Don't really have much to say about Gabby, she wasn't great, wasn't horrible, same with Bailie, Kocian, Baumann, and Dennis.

    My Worlds team would be: Simone, Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Kyla, Mykayla. Alt: Bailie, non-traveling alt: Nia.

    Quals:

    FX: Maggie, Gabby, Mykayla, Aly, Simone
    V : Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Mykayla, Simone
    UB: Aly, Maggie, Simone, Kyla, Gabby
    BB: Gabby, Maggie, Kyla, Aly, Simone

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  11. I just wish that Mykayla has her amanar. She would then be so locked for a medal even if it's not the prettiest amanar. Problem is that someone like Paseka can just sneak past her by the thinnest hair due to her significantly higher combined SV. I can tell you right now that unless Simone falls on her cheng more than she stands up, then she needs to also do the cheng at worlds even if it's nowhere as pretty looking as her amanar. She better realizes that by now from last year...

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  12. So I know this's not related to US but looks like Musty wont be at worlds. Any speculation now on what the Russian team might be?

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  13. Anyone watching Russia Cup? Kinda a mess. Now with Musty out, Team Russia likely wont have anyone really in contention for AA. as well as the chance of getting silver or even TF podium could also be a problem..

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  14. Cat, when are going to post about the latest happenings?? So much going on. I command you to make your world predictions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  15. cat, you ok? We all miss you!! anyway, hope you are keeping up with all the latest comps.

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  16. Cath, hope you saw the US shocker nominative list!!... That could be a thread in itself easily.

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  17. us team named as nom..go BRENNA!! go BRENNA!! go BRENNA!! go BRENNA!! go BRENNA!!

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