Worlds experience/competiton part 1

It's a little difficult to fully process the 177 routines I saw over the weekend (okay, not exactly..ignored some in the AA if something more exciting was going on..) but I'll give it a go! Here is my (painfully) long worlds experience, and thoughts of course. The actual gymnastics bit probably won't be as detailed as I'd like as it's hard to differentiate everything at the moment.

Friday

4AM alarm unfortunately but thankfully it was way more exciting to wake up to the realisation that my flight was actually finally leaving in a few hours than Christmas morning growing up ever was. Antwerp inexplicably does not have an airport, or if they do it's a Fisher Price effort, so had to go via Brussels. Because of this we had to go for the safe option of a morning flight, but it was great having the security of arriving very early (09:30). The two cities are just 40 minutes apart by train, so it was fine.

Here's how convenient the location was:

This is Koningin Astridplein, or Queen Astrid's square.

Source- dedavid.wordpress.com

The beautiful building in the middle is the train station where we arrived from. To the left is the zoo, which has King penguins! Killed time nicely there. At the other end facing the station was our hotel, which was a huge behemoth of a thing and looked down on everything.

Source- beautifulgymnasticsblog.blogspot.com

We were bumped from a 3 star to this 4 star, which was great :D To the right of the station as seen here were streets filled with great places to get lunch and dinner. The street to the left of the hotel in this photo was a Chinese district, where we had an unbelievable meal. Worth feeling left out for eating with forks and having Western dishes. RIGHT UNDERNEATH the hotel was the metro station for the subway to the arena. On the same street as the Chinese district we could have gotten trams to the arena either. Transport to the arena with event tickets is free, because why not.

Anyway, on with the show. Met up briefly with some people I know which was great and.......wait for it......Andreea Raducan crossed the street right behind us! I am in the green jumper, nicely in height order - how very Romanian of us. She was very gracious about being pounced on (nicely!) thankfully.

Source- beautifulgymnasticsblog.blogspot.com

Our tickets for the all-around were slightly beyond the vault table, and for row 13...which ended up being row 5, presumably because rows were chopped out to make room for the podium. Amazing feeling to sit down in INCREDIBLE seats, though they should be as I booked them on day 2 of release :p I can see us in some footage already, and I haven't seen much. Here is the view straight ahead, floor and beam were perfect. Bars were far away but still fairly clear. Each seat had a shiny card on it, made to be folded into a fan. The noise of everyone using them for clapping was great, really added to the fun of the music they used between rotations and as marching in/out music. In fact, I basically loved all of the music they used.

Source- beautifulgymnasticsblog.blogspot.com

Group 1 started on vault which was so exciting. The sheer noise in warmup of Simone Biles hitting the table and then the mat is awesomely loud, and she was doing her usual trick of throwing DTY's and amanars while the rest were just doing timers still. Having the perfect side view means things like leg separation go unnoticed, and foot crossing. It was such an experience to see Simone Biles launch towards the rafters just a few feet away. The others vaults I enjoyed the most were Giulia Steingruber's, Roxana Popa's, Kyla Ross' (legs looked perfect on the block from my angle..), Noel Van Klaveren (so so clean and beautiful) and Larisa Iordache. Almost immediately it was tough to know where to point my eyes. I wrote out the start lists as I wasn't going to be ripped off for roaming data prices and there was no wifi in the arena, and that definitely helped, but I had lots of pink underlining for routines I wanted to watch clashing with others throughout the competition which as expected, was tough to manage.

I found vault and floor quite calm to watch, beam was so nervewracking. Most gymnasts were held for at least a minute before competing, which I really hated to see. It's not an apparatus you want to be standing around waiting for, giving yourself time to freak out. There were moments of glory a-plenty, Simone Biles nailing the 2.5 wolf and planting the dismount, Kyla Ross' lines and being perfectly and gloriously in line with the beam on everything, Roxana Popa hitting a very solid routine for her weakest event, Anna Rodionova, Noemi Makra and Ilaria Kaeslin showing off their perfection, form and elegance, Aliya Mustafina staying on and Natsumi Sasada's insanely difficult mount, the layout full. But such heartbreak, and so many tense moments. Every time there's a big wobble everyone holds their breath and the atmosphere heightens completely, and such disappointment for someone when they fall. Ruby Harrold, Rebecca Tunney, Victoria Moors, Larisa Iordache, Shang Chunsong and Yao Jinnan...horribly long list of such fantastic gymnasts. Ruby's routine is quite exciting so it was such a downer when she fell, and of course Rebecca has had a very tough time with injury, recovery and growth so had she succeeded here at last it would have been such a boost for her. I found Victoria's routine one of the most upsetting as I had a clear view of her sitting apart from everyone else looking absolutely miserable afterwards. And of course, the 3 girls who had the difficulty to contend right at the top. Yao's fall was infuriating because the tucked full should have been dumped long ago. As soon as I saw her prep for it I was gutted, pretty sure I called out 'Noooooo!'. Shang's was another super disappointing one, she's usually very solid on beam, or at least not prone to actually falling. And of course, Larisa, who when you think about it aside from Euros 2012 has had a pretty bad time as a senior. It's funny, you think she's been around for ages and everyone knows her and her routines...but she hasn't accomplished much and has been so unlucky. The competitive fire seems to be lacking a bit too, sadly.

Not that floor didn't have its moments. Right before Victoria Moors went for her skill, there was total, terrified silence. And then BOOM an explosion of joy when she not only landed it but stuck it too! Simone Biles' much better landing (than quals) of HER own skill also got a great reaction. It's so different to hear floor music booming live. Shang Chunsong's gunshots seemed louder and weirder than ever, but the ending few seconds of her routine were absolutely endearing and totally worked. Elizabeth Seitz' routine was great even just for this reason, the beat magnified in the dance bits was infectious and really got the crowd involved. Happily I did not notice one single fall on floor and the number of out of bounds was very, very low - lower than would have been expected with such a bouncy and newly - launched floor, but of course that's what practice and podium training was for. One strange thing I noticed is the speed of gymnasts runs- for instance, Asuka Teramoto and Natsumi Sasada seemed to be taking their ease, compared to the power and attack of others. It instantly explained the difficulty they are apt to have with underrotating skills like the triple full. Ilaria Kaeslin and Anna Rodionova stood out a mile for their beautiful gymnastics here, and my eyes were out on stalks thanks to the perfection of Noemi Makra's piked full-in. I'm so glad I got to see that live. It's great to see stunning lines and form etc. amidst all of the scary and sloppier difficulty. Not that immense difficulty isn't exciting, it was awesome to watch, but noting the amount of crazy skills performed and the legions of injured gymnasts is still worrying.

Highlights and Favourite Routines

- Yao Jinnan's Mo Salto. It was breathtaking, and the entire routine besides was amazing to watch.
- Elizabeth Seitz' Def. It looked way cooler than I expected, seriously impressive skill.
- Natsumi Sasada's layout full beam mount, previously mentioned.
- Aliya Mustafina's PRESENCE. She radiates it even walking down the steps after saluting. She holds herself very regally and beautifully, and while it wasn't exactly a surprise, it was still great to witness her at her queen-liest.
- The Biles and the Moors.
- THAT shap full. Fabulous.
- Simone Biles' smile. Lit up the arena and while obviously her choreography is lacking, her routine was still electrifying and she expresses the hell out of it, particularly in the dance bits before the corners. For this reason, I see no issue with her seemingly not getting any artistry deductions. It was just a great routine.
- Aliya Mustafina's floor, especially the first pass. She left no doubt at all, the whips looked fantastic and she went for the stag and totally nailed it. Her determination blew me away completely.
- Roxana Popa, what a competitor she is. Highlight would have to be the whip-whip-full in. Because WOW, it's just jaw dropping.
- Again, Noemi Makra's piked full in. Love...
- Larisa Iordache's speed and fluidity. Seamless movement and it's especially great on floor, her floor works very nicely for her.
- Stuck landings, especially the really planted ones. It's just such a thrill.
- Ruby Harrold's bars. It's just so much more interesting and exciting when original moves are performed, and Ruby did two, and they were great. The Ooooo!! after the Zuchold..great moment.
- Vanessa Ferrari still being so strong. Veterans are great to see, no matter their motivation to continue!

'Podium' of favourite routines

UB 1. Yao Jinnan 2. Roxana Popa 3. Ruby Harrold
VT 1.  Simone Biles 2. Giulia Steingruber 3 T Noemi Makra and Roxana Popa
BB 1. Ilaria Kaeslin 2. Noemi Makra 3. Simone Biles (tough, so many falls..)
FX 1. Victoria Moors 2. Elizabeth Seitz 3 T Simone Biles, Aliya Mustafina and Roxana Popa

Favourite Leotards

Carlotta Ferlito's sparkly turquoise and black leotard, it looked so well in the arena. Victoria Moors' black with pink maple pattern. All of their new leotards are stunning but the contrast of this one is particularly amazing. Yao Jinnan, just stunning, and I really liked Rebecca Tunney's too. Least favourite...hmm. I'm not sure about Vasiliki Millousi's, I don't think it worked. Also, the top button at the back of her neck was undone, so noticeable.

Longines Prize for Elegance

I felt this was a bit of a letdown, since Kohei Uchimura has already won it and while Kyla Ross IS elegant, I felt they should have rewarded one of the unknown but stunningly beautifully elegant gymnasts. Ah well. 

Not-so highlights

- Beam falls. Oh so many. 7 that I remember offhand, I'm sure that wasn't the grand total. It's such a fraught apparatus and the groan all around you just makes it affect you more and feel the gymnast's devastation more.
- Natsumi Sasada's bars. She had to come off three times, it was heartbreaking.
- Overscoring. Yes, Simone Biles' scores, notably vault and floor, were that little bit too high. It wouldn't have done anything to the standings however. I don't think she was the only one but I'd need to have a good think about it.
- The waits for beam. Let them on!
- Vault execution scoring in general. Too generous.
- The stupid switch ring rule. It appears quite a lot of beautiful ones got downgraded, sigh.
- The really hard twisting leaps on floor, like the Gogean. Ugly on screen, uglier in person.
- Aliya Mustafina's contouring/bronzer skills. What was that about? Looked like someone put it on like that out of spite. Same for Vanessa Ferrari's lipstick, which looked to have been done without the aid of a mirror.

This is hard, there were soooo many highlights compared to things that sucked!

The Podium

Simone Biles has firmly shut the haters up. It has been obvious for so long that she was capable of this kind of domination, if she could just get her head and new skills together in time..and sure enough, she was untouchable. I was already a big fan but seeing her compete in person...just, wow. The scary thing is, it doesn't seem like she has peaked at all. Both vaults, her floor, bars...she's definitely not done. What a thrilling performance by a first year senior, and a well deserved gold. No arguing with the validity of that result, for once.

Kyla Ross had a great day, but all of the naysaying 'her best is not good enough' etc. came to pass, as predicted by basically everyone. I don't really hide the fact that I'm not a big fan of hers, but that doesn't mean I didn't appreciate her gymnastics, or aspects of it. Her lines were great, bars were smooth and so solid, floor choreography has much improved and I got a fabulous view of her super clean vault. I really would like to see her keep improving, adding sensible upgrades- beam and bars. So no, I am not converted but wow is she solid, strong and totally earned this.

Aliya Mustafina has depths of reserve like no other. When all looks bleak - knee pain, general tiredness and looking off-form, dodgy beam and/or floor, the stress of carrying her entire team on her back again...have no fear, because nothing like that seems to matter when hitting is the most important. Her fierceness and elegance everywhere was dazzling and I'm delighted she was able to get it together. It would probably be too much to ask that she gets a break now..


What were your favourite routines? Moments? Skills? Leotards? Worst? Can anyone step up the plate next year and beat Seamoney?


"Tune in" for part 2 (and 3 probably) soon which contain a picture I prize even more than the one included here and a thrilling story about who I met at breakfast on Sunday..(not very thrilling, but still a fantastic sighting)...

Worlds post #1

This is a big posting gap at such an important time of year but it's been a very busy week and I don't even know how I'm going to squash watching quals (archived) in. Anyway, the start list is out! Here.  

Subdivisions 1 and 2 will compete tomorrow, the other three on Wednesday. Here's a little breakdown of the ones to watch from each:

Subdivision 1- Kyla Ross, Zeng Siqi, Huang Huidan, Sophie Scheder, Stefania Alina Stanila, Sanne Wevers, Kaitlyn Hofland, Maegan Chant, Hong Un Jong.
Subdivision 2- Yao Jinnan, Rebecca Tunney, Elizabeth Seitz, Anna Rodionova, Mai Murakami, Jessica Lopez, Yu Minobe.
Subdivision 3- Simone Biles, Shang Chunsong, Tatiana Nabieva, Noel Van Klaveren, Phan Thi Ha Thanh, Oksana Chusovitina, Ilaria Kaeslin, Carlotta Ferlito.
Subdivision 4- McKayla Maroney, Aliya Mustafina, Roxana Popa, Noemi Makra, Ruby Harrold, Larisa Iordache, Vanessa Ferrari, Natsumi Sasada, Elsabeth Black.
Subdivision 5- Sandra Izbasa, Victoria Moors, Hannah Whelan, Giulia Steingruber, Asuka Teramoto, Chantysha Netteb, Kirsten Beckett, Vasiliki Millousi, Marta Pihan-Kulesza.

I am really disgusted Brenna Dowell is not competing, even just on bars. Once the team was named, that should have been it. Yes it was known Marta had the other three doing the AA in mind but this is leaving it cruelly late, after she had been training in Antwerp for several days. Her interview where she is clearly upset attests to the unfairness of this decision. Ideally I would like all four to do the all-around, sigh. Anyway, McKayla Maroney is so unlikely to qualify into the all-around anyway, whereas Brenna stood a chance of qualifying to bars final, and picking up valuable experience along the way.

Russia have had more of a shakeup, Anna Rodionova will now compete AA - and so will Tatiana Nabieva, who was in question after hitting her head on floor. Aliya Mustafina will do two vaults, the second of which is her old one which looked in podium training to be too tucked to be credited as laidout. It will be really interesting to see how qualifications goes for her, since she seemed 50/50 in podium training, with issues on bars of all things.

There are three super-scary vaults, Fadwa Mahmoud's and Yamilet Pena's Produnovas, and Hong Un Jong's triple twisting Yurchenko. I can hardly wait to watch through my hands if any or all qualify to vault finals. It will be kind of hilarious if Hong Un Jong successfully completes the TTY and steals some American thunder. Other interesting submitted elements are Shang Chunsong's piked Hindorff, Simone Biles' double layout half out (and mystery Weiler 1/1 on bars which she has not been seen doing) and Aliya Mustafina's triple Y turn.

Victoria Moors' is back in the all-around! She hasn't appeared in the list to do it ever since they started coming out and then it was confirmed she wouldn't be doing it as she hadn't gotten her DTY back. Either it's solid now or they're going to use the FTY.

The all-around looks like a serious battle! Simone Biles is on fire, even controlling her energy on floor as we have seen. Aliya Mustafina has some upgrades though- but seems tired and/or not in the best of health and although I would agree that she always trains worse than she competes and that she shows full mettle when she needs to- she has also really sucked on beam in competition. It doesn't look like Shang Chunsong has brought a DTY to the table (see what I did there) but as I have said, she is still a big contender. Kyla Ross has added a connection on beam which brings her to 6.1 there, infinitely better than 5.7/8 but still so low. Hopefully she can hit both in competition. Yao Jinnan does not look like she has the goods to really fight in the all-around, though absolutely on bars. The jury is out on Larisa Iordache, who has her Silivas back in action and is attempting the quad turn on floor, but has been very inconsistent on beam in training.

Difficulty looks like this at the moment:

Aliya Mustafina- 25.1. 25.3 if she does the quad turn and triple Y spin on floor, 25.4 if she connects the triple Y to a single Y. I'd be surprised if she hit them all.
Simone Biles- 25
Larisa Iordache- 25..though I think floor is more likely to get 6.2, so 24.8.
Shang Chunsong- 24.7, full beam and bars would be nice.
Yao Jinnan- 24.6
Kyla Ross- 24

The amount of injuries and mishaps is frightening. Russia in particular are cursed- Shelgunova, Komova, Sidorova, Grishina, Paseka, etc. etc. Nabieva's fall on her head and Mustafina having been recently ill and seen grabbing her knee today. A further two MAG have withdrawn from competition too.

That said, I could not be more excited that I'm going to Antwerp Friday morning! Our hotel has been bumped from a 3 star to a 4 star. Luckily they're practically on top of each other, but I blame pesky gymnasts! I will not be liveblogging, no laptop, and I want to see everything. There will be plenty of people doing quick hits etc. I might tweet a little bit though, I also intend to take videos of vault timers etc. and to maybe try get photos/autographs with gymnasts..

BBC (you need a British IP to watch online), USAG (US IP or @tunnelbear to watch, this one will be archived), Rai (Italy) and TVR1 (Romania I think) are going to broadcast the all-around and event finals. I believe French and Belgian channels are going to broadcast too, but that's all I know. Nobody is touching quals except USAG, who will livestream subdivisions 1, 3 and 4. These are likely to focus on the rotations the US girls are in. This footage will be archived, though may still need an IP blocker- there's one called tunnelbear which is supposed to be great. I can't watch live, pesky college. EDIT: I found a full list of broadcasters, here.

This is the best resource for links to videos I find, since their site is a mess to navigate. Other than the usual other sources, just in case you haven't heard about this one-  Agnes Suto's tumblr here. She is an Icelandic gymnast competing at worlds with some nice insight and background information. Sounds like a lovely humble person too.

Who are you rooting for in each final? Does Maroney stand a chance of getting a spot in AA finals? What skill are you most looking forward to seeing? Does the 'Moors' deserve an I? Who will be injured next? Can Russia actually preserve ANYONE?

News

Adjusting to a college timetable out of the blue is tough. Happily, the wait for Antwerp is flying by!

A new nominative registration list for Antwerp is out. You can find it here. Bear in mind it can change up to a day before competition starts, but I'd be very confident that this is basically it. The most notable change is the addition of Stefanie Alina Stanila of Romania. I'm delighted she's getting this great chance for experience, though of course it took the untimely injury of Diana Bulimar for this to happen. I know that Romania do not have fantastic funding and that is a big reason why we haven't seen their new seniors, but I still thought it was unfair. Anyway, her difficulty is too low to make an impact but she has potential I think. Other changes are the inclusion of Daria Matveyeva of Ukraine over the previously named Olesya Sazonova. I'm not sure why, but injury would be a good guess. We know that the swift replacement of Paula Vargas of Spain and Adriana Crisci of Italy is due to injury, and so is Jonna Adlerteg of Sweden's absence, while Elsa Garcia's has been confirmed as politics- sigh. I know people are baffled that Elisa Meneghini mised another chance to be named to the team but it seems they are preserving her and building her difficulty for next year, when she and Enus Mariani would be expected to become the new backbone of the team. Jade Barbosa has not been replaced, but she's out. Victoria Moors is still not down for vault, which is odd. There's a mistake with Italy's beam lineup by the way, Leolini is not doing beam.

Aliya Mustafina has new floor music! I love it, it's dramatic and the vocals are haunting. Suits her. She is or has been dealing with a virus which has impacted her training somewhat. Upgrades on bars, floor and beam were in training and a second vault (Lopez maybe?) but it's not clear now how much she will do of those.

Japan Junior is coming up fast, it starts on the 22nd! As mentioned, the lineup is amazing- Laurie Hernandez, Bailie Key, Andreea Iridon, Andreea Munteanu, Maria Bondareva, Maria Kharenkova, Catherine Lyons, Georgia Mae Fenton, Wang Yan etc. etc. Catherine Lyons has a nice boost going into this, she won 6 of a possible 6 medals at the School Games recently but I think her difficulty is too low to impact. The beauty of her beam and floor will be great though. I haven't heard anything about a stream yet, here's hoping. Edit- I just discovered the competitions will basically start at 5AM for me, so I won't be looking for a stream! If I see one mentioned I'll post it but I think this will be reliant on youtube videos from people who attend..

Antwerp musings

So the team for Japan has been named, and the elite season for the US has not even begun. Most gymnastics programmes are somewhere in between, but a picture of the main players is definitely swiftly emerging.

Teams

In America, the first elite meet, Classics, is just under a month away. Traditionally, this meet can often be a splatfest as the girls use it to test new routines in preparation for Nationals. The Olympic team plus alternates have already qualified through to Nationals and so have the girls who competed internationally so far this season- so Maroney, Ross, Biles, Price, Nichols, Priessman, Dowell and Ernst do not need to compete at Classics but more than likely will anyway. Katelyn Ohashi is presumed out as she is not training yet, Sarah Finnegan is still recovering, and the status of Peyton Ernst is not known as she too had surgery recently. We can pretty much assume that Simone Biles is a lock for Antwerp unless she's injured. Her biggest problem is consistency as she could blow everyone else out of the water for difficulty if she includes one or two upgrades this year, but not if she biffs a bar release. No, not the TTY which as we have seen is not yet ready (if you have not seen it- she gets it around enough to be credited, but it's slightly under. She does not have the height and lands in a deep squat, deeper than sitting- and then falls back. She states that it is scary because her upper body gets it around but her lower body twists slower and her feet don't get around, making it a recipe for ACL tears if she competes it before she masters it) but maybe the full-in double layout, double wolf turn on floor and/or arabian on beam. Simone is the strongest all-arounder that they have, and can potentially qualify for all 4 event finals.

With the more than probable absence of previous contenders Katelyn Ohashi and Jordyn Wieber, the composition of the rest of the team is up in the air. Kyla Ross I would call at this stage another lock, though she needs a hefty upgrade stick to beat off the challenges Brenna Dowell, Ebee Price and Lexie Priessman pose for the second all-around spot. Even if she loses out for the second AA spot in prelims, her bars and beam are definitely needed and should get her easily into both finals. Medalling is quite another matter- her bars would need to approach 6.6+ and her beam roughly the same, the latter is quite a tall order. So, spots one and two are thought to be nearly guaranteed as long as both girls stay healthy. There will be another spot going to be a vault/floor specialist, to complement Simone and potentially take home more than one medal in both finals. McKayla Maroney, Ebee Price, Lexie Priessman and Mykayla Skinner are all contenders for this spot. McKayla, as we have seen, has her amanar back and her old vault, the Lopez. She is also training a double layout which is new, and a double arabian which isn't new but hasn't featured in her routines in years. Her floor could definitely break 6.0 but the combination of her passes she plans on competing is unknown. 3.5 twist or double layout, 2.5-front layout, 1.5- double arabian (unfortunately the dance-through video appears to indicate a hurdle for a 1.5 for the third pass :( and which had so better have the 1.5 placed earlier in her run or she's sunk already) and double pike would probably be the best bet. I don't see her competing the 3.5 twist AND double layout as she was never one for killer endurance on floor, even though she has grown.

Mykayla Skinner has a 6.5 floor routine, and 6.4 and 6.3 vaults. She has trained a half-on double full (Cheng half) though it's unknown if it's something she played around with once or could actually be done this year- after all, her Cheng is explosive. All of which makes her very, very interesting. Lexie Priessman has a full potential on floor of 6.7, not yet competed, and her second vault is unknown. Ebee's second vault is supposed to be a Mustafina, so 6.3 and 6.0 difficulty. McKayla is the one with Olympics and Worlds experience of course, whereas gymnasts like Mykayla have no international experience at all. Should be a great battle. That leaves one spot left, and they don't really have any amazing specialists aside from vault and floor remaining unless Katelyn is back in time to potentially take gold on beam. If not, a solid back-up like Brenna Dowell, who MAY be able to take the second all-arounder spot is the best bet. Ebee too is another very strong contender for that spot. But we might get an unknown like Abigail Milliet, who has a very strong beam routine in training- proving herself capable of medalling at worlds. I do see a team of Biles, Ross, Dowell (insert healthy Ohashi here) and Maroney being the most likely. But I wouldn't bet on it! Nevertheless, my team consists of:

Simone Biles, AA, VT, FX and UB and BB attempts
Kyla Ross, battling for AA with Dowell, UB and BB
Brenna Dowell, battling for AA with Ross, FX and UB attempts
McKayla Maroney, VT and FX attempt.

Beam and bars are not THAT strong but not weak enough to be called a void. Vault, floor and the AA itself are bursting with potential medals.

Romania are only utilising 3 spots. This time I would put money on this team's composition of Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar and Sandra Izbasa. But don't be fooled by such lack of depth, as these three are fierce contenders for medals. Although Sandra placed an astonishing fifth in the London AA, it is expected she will do vault and floor only. I say 'only' but the fact is she would be a favourite to take medals on both. The other two will compete all-around. Larisa, with her swish new second vault and 6.9 beam difficulty should have no issues making a number of finals, though she could potentially be pushed out of floor finals if Sandra and Diana (with upgrades) score higher. She's the favourite for gold on beam and is expected to feature on the AA podium. Vault and floor are definitely much more uncertain, especially vault where her current difficulty is not the highest. Her biggest weakness, big surprise, is a weak and badly composed bars routine which lost her the Euros AA gold despite a huge lead after the other three events. She needs upgrades to in any way overcome the handicap her bars pose to her AA chances. Diana's bars are a little better, except for her releases, but her difficulty here is far too low. Her beam too is just 5.9. On a happier note, she is FINALLY getting a new floor routine this summer. Her best shot for a medal is floor, and even then she could get squeezed out of the final if she does not upgrade and if Sandra is back to her best on that event. Bad news for Ana Maria Ocalisan and Stefanie Stanila who once again are not being given a chance. They may not be ready to represent Romania in a major competition...because they don't get any assignments! So this team, barring injuries, will be:

Larisa Iordache AA, BB, VT and FX (battle with teammates)
Diana Bulimar AA, FX (see above)
Sandra Izbasa VT, FX (see above)

With the exception of Viktoria Komova who was injured at the start of this year, last year's Russian Olympic team have not taken a break from training. Which is just as well since this year's seniors are sadly not up to much- with the exception of steady but Sheep-pak'd Evgeniya Shelgunova who appears to be injured. Ekaterina Baturina is probably the second strongest new senior but her difficulty leaves a lot to be desired. If Viktoria Komova is healthy, then she is on this team. So too is Aliya Mustafina who has competed a few times already and will do so again at Universiade. Viktoria's AA scoring potential will be enormous if she's fully recovered, and she should quite easily qualify to bars finals, beam too. Aliya is having quite a few issues with her beam, but she did hit a completely steady routine this year and one or two others that were nearly as good. She's expected to add 0.4 to her bars to up them to 6.7, more than likely a carbon copy of her London routine as difficulty has gone down in the new code. The third spot will go to Ksenia Afanasyeva, who unlike most veterans who stay the same or go downhill, has actually improved. She added bars back to her arsenal but she won't compete them at Universiade. She also has an amanar in the works and is training a full-in double layout. Her floor difficulty is the highest yet competed (Mykayla Skinner competed hers this year in the JO code) so far this year and she stands a great chance of medalling there. If she can hit bars then she's also a very good AA backup. The fourth spot will I think go to Maria Paseka. Even if she just competes the DTY, she should qualify for finals. Anastasia Grishina on the other hand, even if she hits every routine is unlikely to qualify for any final above her teammates. If Viktoria is not ready in time, then Anastasia would take her spot. If Maria proves unable to hit her vaults then I'd take Alla Sosnitskaya instead. My Russian team is:

Aliya Mustafina AA, UB and BB and FX attempts
Viktoria Komova AA, UB, BB
Ksenia Afanasyeva FX
Maria Paseka VT

For the Chinese team, worlds falls just in between two other major competions- the first of which, National Games, is actually more important to them. There are a bunch of retirements of the Beijing and London Olympians expected right after this meet, but should any of them hit and win medals I think we can expect a little delay in their retirement plans. There is only one new senior of importance this year, Lou Nina, and she is out with an arm injury. Consequently, we can expect Yao Jinnan as a lock for this team. In particular, she needs more upgrades on floor to fulfil her AA potential. She is, however, training probably the most exciting upgrade we'll see all year- a Mo Salto! I'd also put Shang Chunsong on this team. Tiny Shang has impressive difficulty across three events, and may yet grow enough to execute a DTY. She has proven herself to be inconsistent however, though not nearly as much as gymnasts like Huang Qiushuang who made a number of important teams on the back of her difficulty. No matter who else goes on the team, they will be fighting amongst each other to make bars and beam finals. They do have a very good vaulter, Li Yiting, but her vaults are quite unpredictable and a bit scary. The third spot will I think be up for grabs between bars specialists Tan Jiaxin and veteran He Kexin, depending on who hits in September. I know Huang Huidan is the one who snatched gold earlier this year but she's very flaky and I don't expect her to hit again when it counts, sadly. Although Yao Jinnan and Shang Chunsong are top quality beamers, I'd still take a beam specialist like Sui Lu or Zeng Siqi for the last spot, due to the lack of floor/vault specialists.

Yao Jinnan AA, UB and BB attempt
Shang Chunsong AA, UB, BB and FX attempt
Tan Jiaxin/He Kexin UB attempt
Zeng Siqi/Sui Lu BB attempt

Japan's team is a bit of a no-brainer, seeing as it has already been named. Two-time Olympian Yu Minobe joins the girls long seen as locks- Asuka Teramoto, Natsumi Sasada and Mai Murakami. The question is, who will join Asuka in the AA? Mai is the obvious bet, but she has very very rarely hit 4/4. For that reason, Natsumi is the best choice. Mai will be looking to make floor and vault finals, Yu beam finals, Asuka bars, beam and floor and Natsumi beam and floor...though she's very very shaky and beam is unlikely for her. Their best hope for a medal is Mai on floor, whose difficulty ranges from 6.0 to a monster 6.7. The latter is very unlikely to ever be credited, as her tumbling and dance skills have unfortunately gone downhill compared to when she was a junior.

Asuka Teramoto AA, BB, UB and FX attempt
Natsumi Sasada AA, BB and FX attempt
Mai Murakami FX and VT attempt
Yu Minobe BB attempt

Canada have lost some of their best seniors to NCAA- Brittany Rogers, Peng Peng Lee and Kristina Vaculik which is more than a bit of a blow. Nevertheless, they do have quite a few promising seniors. Girls like Victoria Moors and Ellie Black are locks if they are healthy. Victoria, who is training a double double laidout, unfortunately had a disastrous time at Nationals as she was sick and had calf issues. Even with that, she has competed very strongly when healthy and her floor is really her ticket to the team as it has huge medal potential. Ellie is a fierce competitor and has made great strides on previously weak events, bars and beam. I'd add Gabriella Douglas and Maegan Chant to this team, the former for her spectacular floor and the latter for her vaulting- not super strong yet, but showing enormous potential there and both need the experience to improve. This team, like Japan, is fairly devoid of someone for bars but should do well anyway.

Victoria Moors AA, FX
Ellie Black AA, FX, VT and BB attempt
Gabriella Douglas FX and BB attempt
Maegan Chant VT and FX attempt

Britain are not exactly in a brilliant position, they have lost the excellent Gabby Jupp to an ACL tear, Rebecca Tunney had a disastrous comeback from injury recently, new seniors like Georgina Hockenhull and Angel Romaeo have not proven themselves yet, bars specialists Ruby Harrold and Becky Downie have fallen more times than they have hit and seriously strong gymnasts like Amy Tinkler, Tyesha Matthis, Ellie Downie and Catherine Lyons are all juniors. Beth Tweddle has refuted rumours that she is retiring but she is almost certainly not going to suddenly knock out a killer 7.0 bars routine as she's still taking a break. Rebecca and Hannah Whelan have definitely not had great competitions so far this year, but both have plenty of time to improve on what they have shown. I believe Rebecca aside from the long break with her recovery, has also grown a bit which will of course impact her routines. That said, I'd put both girls on the team to do AA. In a similar vein, despite the inconsistency of both Becky and Ruby, they are still good hopes for the bars final if they don't fall, so they'd be on the team also.

Rebecca Tunney AA, FX, UB attempt
Hannah Whelan AA, FX attempt
Becky Downie UB attempt
Ruby Harrold UB attempt

Italy's Vanessa Ferrari has made noises about retirement but she's been competing so much this year and just won the AA at Mersin so I think she'll hang on until after worlds. Her presence alone is a huge motivation and boost for the rest of the team. Along with her I think Elisa Meneghini will do the AA and then some combination of Carlotta Ferlito/Giorgia Campana/Elisabetta Preziosa for the other two spots..but I think we'll see Carlotta and Giorgia.

Vanessa Ferrari AA, FX, BB, UB attempt
Elisa Meneghini AA, FX and BB attempt
Carlotta Ferlito FX, BB attempt
Giorgia Campana FX, UB, BB attempt

The All-Around

For a Post Olympic year, I don't think we run the risk of a weak field whatsoever. (In 2005, Monette Russo won bronze and in 2009, Koko Tsurumi). The top Russian and Romanian girls have not taken a break, and while some of the Americans are only getting back to training now, there are enough that the idea of them scrambling to field two top all-arounders is ludicrous. Currently, Simone Biles is the one to beat. She boasts huge difficulty- 6.3 vault and beam, 6.2 floor and 6.1 bars. It's quite likely she'll sneak some upgrades into floor and beam also. Aliya Mustafina has 5.8 vault, 6.3 bars, 6.4 beam and 6.1 floor. Similarly, she has upgrades planned for bars and her beam difficulty may reach 6.7 or higher. The key for both girls is to stay on the beam. That won't be an issue for Larisa Iordache who could well be dragged down by her weak bars instead, but her 6.9 solid beam is a huge boost for her. Her floor is 6.2 and her vault 5.8. Her bars were in and around 5.7 but she can upgrade there. It's far from concrete how USA's second all-arounder will be but we should, from past experience, except them to be strong. China's Shang Chunsong could well be up there if she gets a DTY- her difficulty is 6.7-8 bars, 6.6 beam and 6.1 floor. Yao Jinnan could be the slow and steady threat for bronze either. We are of course, far too far out to really pick the medals but this lot plus a healthy Viktoria Komova are definitely in the forefront for medals.


Vault

Astonishingly deep, potentially much moreso than the lacklustre Olympic final. Expect Simone Biles, a second American, Phan Thi Ha Thanh, Giulia Steingruber, Ri Un Ha, Janine Berger, Oksana Chusovitina, Noel Van Klaveren, Chantysha Netteb, Alexa Moreno, Jade Barbosa, Adrian Gomes, Mai Murakami, Hong un Jong, Ellie Black, Maegan Chant, Sandra Izbasa, Maria Paseka, Yamilet Pena, Fadwa Mahmoud and Larisa Iordache to bring all they can to the (vault) table.  Let us just hope the Produnova chuckers can get up afterwards..though Yamilet's coaching and injury status is unclear, so maybe she is sticking to safer vaults if possible. Last year has taught us that even the surest of sure things can crash a vault so I will not even attempt to divine a top 8 from this. I'd love to see the top 4 make the final though the latter two failed to do so last year. Giulia is upgrading her second vault- doubling it, but both vaults are in danger of being downgraded or heavily deducted due to piking, unfortunately.

Bars

Although Beth Tweddle has said she's definitely not retiring, but as mentioned above she's not in a position to shine this year. Aliya Mustafina and Viktoria Komova will be expected to be in the front of the hunt for medals- and whichever two Chinese gymnasts qualify. Elizabeth Seitz is doing her Def again, newcomers Sophie Scheder, Jonna Adlerteg and Roxana Popa all have strong sets and the brilliant but inconsistent Ruby Harrold and Becky Downie will be pulling out all the stops to make finals. Kyla Ross, Kim Bui, Asuka Teramoto, Noemi Makra and Lisa Katherina Hill are all ones to watch too. There are also one or two Australians like Maddie Leydin who may be in with a shot. All of last year's routines are down about 0.3 in difficulty in this code so I would be surprised if we saw a 7.0 routine. Certainly the Chinese have a few approaching 6.8 though, and there are quite a few girls doing exciting release-release and/or release-transition combinations in their routine to boost difficulty. Whoever makes the final, it will definitely not be a snoozefest.

Beam

We've all been namedropping Katelyn Ohashi for this title when it emerged that her routine has a 7.2 d-score. Although she is very steady with it, her connections are too slow and consequently she has not yet hit past a 6.8 in competition. That's not saying much, since she only competed twice and is currently recovering from surgery. She may be able to get this event back in time and we shouldn't count her out of the running to make the team, but the focus has definitely shifted onto other high-scoring beam routines, or at least until Katelyn's ability to compete this year is clearer. Larisa Iordache is another favourite, and one who is definitely suffering from a few health issues herself that are hindering her usual precision if her recent performance at Anadia is anything to go by. Larisa's beam difficulty is 6.5, she competed 6.7 at Doha and has now competed 6.9. Certainly the latter is the routine she will be unleashing at worlds, and that will be hard to beat. Shang Chunsong remains a major threat, especially if she can improve her dismount. Simone Biles may increase her beam difficulty to 6.7, and Kyla Ross would be a contender too if she upgrades. We should expect an Italian or two, like Elisa Meneghini and Carlotta Ferlito and maybe a Russian if their routines are steady, but this looks like a clear-cut fight between the Romanians and the Chinese.

Floor

The girl to beat is Ksenia Afanasyeva who whipped out an almost perfect routine at Euros and an upgraded difficulty of 6.4. But Ksenia is inconsistent and there are quite a few snapping at her heels- Simone Biles, the second American, Larisa Iordache, one of Sandra Izbasa/Diana Bulimar, Victoria Moors, Mai Murakami, Giulia Steingruber and more. Full-in double layouts, double doubles, 1.5 twists to tucked full-ins and maybe even laidout double doubles will abound. Definitely not shaping up to be a weak floor final.

I updated the predictions that I did last November. You can see them, marked in blue, here.


Do you disagree with my 'teams'? Who I have missed factoring in for event finals? Will we see a laidout double double or TTY? What will Vanessa Ferrari wear?

Oh it's a good day ^.^

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Will definitely have my binoculars ready for day 3!