Friday, 31 January 2014

Nanning Predictions

By anon request, though these are a lot of fun to think about. You can read my hilariously wrong Antwerp predictions here, mostly written in November 2012. This gives us a view already of how ridiculous (nonetheless entertaining) it is to predict anything in gymnastics, much less 9 months or more out. But check it out: I said Viktoria Komova would not do the AA (and got criticised for that) and she didn't. Bow down before my omniscience.


TEAMS

(prelims events in brackets)

USA

Simone Biles VT, FX, UB, BB
Kyla Ross UB, BB, (VT), (FX)
Elizabeth Price UB, VT, FX, (BB)
Madison Kocian (UB), BB
McKayla Maroney VT, (FX)
Lexie Priessman (UB), (BB), (VT), FX

Alt: Brenna Dowell, Sarah Finnegan, Peyton Ernst (Nica Hults replaced)

This team is so strong on vault and floor that it's a bit of a joke. Some issues here with beam as you can see. Sticking Madison Kocian up in TF on the nerviest event is not exactly ideal, but I believe she's consistent when healthy. 4 vying for the AA would be a lot of fun. Maroney is my backup floor worker for TF. They can absorb not-so-strong bars/beam and possibly more than one fall and still win...interesting. I wanted to stick Finnegan on the team but this is predictions not 'want' and I can't really see her on it..yet. Likewise no returning Olympians who haven't competed since, we have seen even less of what stage they're at.

ROMANIA

Larisa Iordache VT, FX, UB, BB
Diana Bulimar VT, FX, UB, BB
Andreea Munteanu VT, FX, UB, BB
Silvia Zarzu (VT), (FX)
Paula Tudorache (BB), (UB)
Stefania Alina Stanila (VT), (UB), (FX), (BB)

Alt: Ana Maria Ocolisan, Diana Teodoru, Ioana Nicoara

I'm thinking Larisa Iordache and Diana Bulimar will gain a spectacular new team-carrier in Andreea Munteanu. Yes, Sandra Izbasa is not appearing as I just don't see it? It's fairly weird to have three bench-warmers during team finals, but really they aren't good enough or specialist enough to knock the other three off an event, and they all need experience.

RUSSIA

Aliya Mustafina VT, FX, UB, BB
Viktoria Komova VT, FX, UB, BB
Ksenia Afanasyeva (VT), FX, (UB)
Maria Kharenkova (FX), BB
Maria Paseka VT, (UB)
Anastasia Grishina UB, (BB), (FX), (VT)

Alt: Alla Sosnitskaya, Evgeniya Zhukova, Ekaterina Kramarenko (Alla replaces Viktoria Kuzmina)

Viktoria Komova can't be so unlucky as to miss another year, right? I do not think she will be at her 2012 or pre-2012 level again, but still obviously an extremely valuable asset and threat in the AA. This would be a strong team but Russia seem to be going down the tubes as a programme so it's very hard to predict this lot.

CHINA

Yao Jinnan VT, FX, UB, BB
Shang Chunsong VT, FX, UB, BB
Huang Huidan UB, (BB)
Wang Wei VT, FX
Tan Sixin BB, (FX), (UB), (VT)
Chen Siyi (FX), (VT), (BB), (UB)

Alt: Tan Jiaxin, Xie Yufen, Zeng Siqi

This is not a team destined for home glory. Next year and the year after will hopefully be a different story, but Nanning...um. Bars is fine of course but there's no backups, beam is quite fluid. It's hard to assess Chen Siyi and Huang Huidan could knock Shang Chunsong out of the beam lineup. This team is snookered with vault I think. I have actually left a DTY off the team...Tan Jiaxin. But, it's really bad and her bars or other events do not warrant inclusion. This will be an off year as a team at least, hopefully not individually too.

BRITAIN

Ruby Harrold VT, (FX), UB, (BB)
Gabby Jupp (VT), FX, UB, BB
Hannah Whelan VT, FX, BB, (UB)
Rebecca Tunney VT, FX, UB, BB
Raer Theaker (VT), (FX)
Becky Downie UB, (BB)

They are not getting any new seniors of note, and Gabby Jupp recovering to her early 2013 self is essential here..though not strictly devastating to the team if she drops VT, FX. Quite a glut of usable all-arounders, should be interesting.

JAPAN

Asuka Teramoto VT, FX, UB, BB
Mai Murakami VT, FX, (UB)
Yuki Uchiyama FX, UB, (BB), (VT)
Natsumi Sasada BB, (FX), (VT), (UB)
Koko Tsurumi (FX), UB, (BB), VT
Yu Minobe BB

Alt: Wakana Inoue, Risa Konishi

Some glorious routines amongst this lot, but this isn't a team with much depth. Interesting to see how it will play out. They will be as always the definition of artistic gymnastics however.

CANADA

Victoria Moors VT, FX, UB, BB
Ellie Black VT, FX, UB, BB
Heaven Latimer BB, FX, (VT)
Meagan Chant VT, (FX), (BB), (UB)
Sabrina Gill UB
Aleeza Yu (BB), (FX), (VT)

Moors and Black doing a lot of the work in TF but some really nice backups here and I hope a good test for newcomers Yu and Latimer.

I cannot do Italy because of the unknown status of Enus Mariani..it makes it too difficult, and I don't know enough about Germany and other possible teams.

EVENT FINAL QUALIFIERS (in random order)

VAULT

Simone Biles
McKayla Maroney
Giulia Steingruber
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Hong un Jong
Ellie Black
Phan Thi Ha Thanh
Yamilet Pena

I am too unsure about the level of Mariana Oliveira's and Wang Wei's vaults for them to usurp anybody here. Nothing has changed for Yamilet Pena to not make this final, and Maria Paseka is a question mark as far as consistency is concerned.

FLOOR

Simone Biles
Lexie Priessman
Victoria Moors
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Larisa Iordache
Diana Bulimar
Mai Murakami
Ellie Black

HUGE depth here.

BEAM

Kyla Ross
Simone Biles
Aliya Mustafina
Viktoria Komova
Yao Jinnan
Tan Sixin
Larisa Iordache
Andreea Munteanu

How very big 4..

BARS

Kyla Ross
Elizabeth Price
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Viktoria Komova
Aliya Mustafina
Ruby Harrold
Roxana Popa

Niiice.

PODIUMS 

TF

1. USA
2. ROMANIA
3. RUSSIA

China in 4th makes me so sad but I just don't see them any higher. Russia are a strong team here in this, but since their programme is a mess and they have injured/recovering gymnasts a-plenty, I think consistency will be the issue.

AA

1. Simone Biles
2. Viktoria Komova
3. Larisa Iordache

Where is the second American?? Second and third also switched a bunch of times when typing (and thinking). Hmmmmm.

VAULT

1. Simone Biles
2. McKayla Maroney
3. Giulia Steingruber

Yes, I WENT THERE. Biles was so close last year and now has 0.8 extra..Maroney has deteriorated form-wise and seems as injury prone as ever also.

FLOOR

1. Simone Biles
2. Ksenia Afanasyeva
3. Larisa Iordache

Really, really difficult to choose silver and bronze. I am also a monster for leaving Murakami out..

BEAM

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Andreea Munteanu
3. Tan Sixin

Stiff competition here too.

BARS

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Huang Huidan
3. Aliya Mustafina

Where's Komova? I think her growth is going to mess with those bars. Another tough decision.

I did go over teams making sure 5 were on each event, so hopefully I haven't overlooked any errors. Some of the above, particularly qualifiers and team members are (almost..so close) to being a certainty but many of the podiums while very likely, are still very fluid and could go either way...without even factoring the inevitable injury list in.

So, how much crack am I on?











 



84 comments:

  1. I actually think you might be right in many places here...

    Teams:

    1. USA: I have a feeling Lexie won't be back on full strength. Maroney on FX in TF. Peyton Ernst on BB instead of Biles. Lexie as alternate.

    2. ROMANIA: Not much to say about Romania. Maybe Stefania will be able to contribute somewhere in TF...

    3. RUSSIA: Not trusting Komova enough. Grishina for FX in TF.

    4. CHINA: Tan Jiaxin instead of Chen Siyi on the team. She can do VT in TF instead of Chunsong. China needs another vaulter to even dream of TF podium.

    5. GB: Great Team!!! Hope Jupp can deliver

    6. JAPAN: !

    7. CANADA: !

    Podiums:

    VT: Maroney will get the TTY and 1st place. Call me a dreamer but there is still a lot of time till Worlds and she will be able to get it. Biles 2nd, of course. And I would love it if Steingruber could come 3rd with an Amanar!

    UB: Yao (1st) Mo FTW! Komova (2nd) I think it will be the first event she'll get really back. Mustafina (3rd)

    BB: Iordache (1st) Please don't break my heart again! Yao (2nd) I believe in her! Ross (3rd) I am not trusting Munteanu will keep her nerves in check.

    FX: Afan (1st). Time for the queen to take back her crown. Biles (2nd). Larissa (3rd). Strong competition between Murakami and Moors for 4th.

    I CAN`T WAIT!!!!

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    Replies
    1. - Simone's beam will be 6.4+. She's not great on it, but very usable. Good form and the impressive dismount. Peyton's leaps are bad and I don't see how I'd fit her on the team..she could be Madison but Peyton's bars are laboured and a bit sloppy. I'm curious about Maroney's floor..whatever about the timing issue which will be fixed..her leaps suck. Lexie could easily outscore her if healthy, and her d score will be higher.

      - Really, I would put Kharenkova on FX over Grishina. More trustworthy.

      - Yes, leaving off Tan Jiaxin is a weird decision. I do think Chen Siyi could easily prove to be more useful than her and am banking on that.

      - I can't see Maroney upgrading, unless her amanar gets back to the 2012 level..she had more height then too. She's just back from an injury after all. Yeah an amanar from Giulia could be great, her DTY was really nice and she learned it so quickly.

      - I actually think bars could be hardest for Komova, she has grown a lot and gotten taller. I know she has a super-strong foundation on it of course. I am picturing her tap swings which were bad before getting hammered in deductions. I hope Yao ditches the Mo unless she can catch it securely.

      - I can't help thinking this will be Iordache's time to snatch that title. It's not just wishful thinking..I love all of those qualifiers. Yao, now, no. Her tuck full will be gone and unless her routine is reworked completely with aerial combinations to bump it up, I can't see that happening. Munteanu is consistent except on bars. Ross won't have the difficulty to contend I don't think...hard to know. She's a big factor for a medal there, for sure.

      - Now THAT is one of the golds there can be little doubt about. (Barring disaster etc.) Simone is unbeatable on floor. Her routine will be 6.6 and probably 6.9.

      I can't wait either :D

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    2. You have four competitors on UB in TF Team USA:

      Simone Biles VT, FX, UB, BB
      Kyla Ross UB, BB, (VT), (FX)
      Elizabeth Price UB, VT, (FX), (BB)
      Madison Kocian UB, BB
      McKayla Maroney VT, (FX)
      Lexie Priessman (UB), (BB), (VT), FX

      Also, I assume whoever is most consistent or a higher qualifier on FX would get the 3rd spot?

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    3. Aha. Thank you. Madison gets benched. Yep..right now I favour Lexie over McKayla for that.

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    4. I agree with the original poster, perhaps Tan Jiaxin will be groomed for vault this year to be able to contribute to TF? I think the new leadership for China might direct the team towards better results with targeted training.

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    5. It's definitely a decision I would not put money on. I will review it when we see both girls in action.

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    6. You must be smoking something with Kyla's floor getting better and by worlds to not have her as a meadel gold or silver is stupid once her floor is up to par around 15 she can and will beat biles. Plus by next yr bailie key will be the one to beat she's getting 59 to 60 with some work to be done on ub plus she's a jr getting these scores this girl is the real deal I believe next as a senior and this yr as a jr she's wins all meets or maybe one off day. Only weekness is ub and not to shabby 14.6 to 7 Ross is my favorite now but even I believe next yr bailie can beat and she'll beat biles I like her floor and bb a lot better plus if she gets the amarer watch out world note you're smoking if kyla is healthy and floor is up shell win gold this year

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    7. This is Nanning 2014. Bailie will be at home watching it as a junior, not being elegible to compete.

      Kyla will win gold on floor when a plague strikes down everyone else.

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    8. Lol. I'm a big Kyla fan but... no.

      I like your Canadian team! Let's hope. Not sure about Team GB... I feel like Whelan and Tunney have been too inconsistent or not up to potential? I would be SO HAPPY if Gabby were back.

      I'm not sure about Elizabeth Price. Hmm. I mean, I would think she'll be on the team but I find her quite messy (I'm aware I'm the only person who doesn't love her gymnastics... I think she's a lovely and smart girl and I wish I liked her gymnastics more! Maybe I will learn?) Ditto Lexie Priessman - I'd like to see her at Jesolo and take it from there. HMM!!

      Thanks for putting this out there. Would love to see your predictions in a few months!

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    9. I hope Gabby can at least do UB/BB. If she can't do the AA the greatest loss is for herself as the team has quite a few good floors and she didn't have a DTY to 'lose' anyway. Hannah and Rebecca both had a poor year last year but are still highly prized..I think they can recover properly and be very valuable.

      I really enjoy Ebee's power and ease of her skills. Her bars are quite impressive too. Even if she's not your cup of tea..she'll bring in the third highest vault score for use in TF, second highest bars score and probably 2nd on floor also so she'd be very valuable. Recent videos show her in good shape so I'm looking forward to seeing her compete at american cup.

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    10. Man - I have defended Ross on a few boards before but I honestly have never seen delusional Ross fan comments before, ie claiming she can get top honors for FX! A plague striking everyone down is right! I'm sure she'll make team and even have some individual success - she is talented - but yikes! Is Ross building an insane Mustafina-like fandom on the gymternet?

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    11. Um firstly u r on crack for thinking simone is going to beat mckayla, firstly mckayla is not stupid she knows what simone can do and she knows what she has to do in order to remain world champion


      next kyla is going to be hard too beat idk about the floor gold theory but she will be a threat in the all around



      Next on the team I would like to see maroney, biles, Ross, Skinner, Ernst,and Alyssa bauman or polina schennikova

      I wanna see Skinner on there because I believe she will clean get execution and her dare devilness is out of this world


      I wanna see the juniors polina and alyssa because they will help the team where needed which is bars and beam Alyssa is fantastic on beam where polinas lines make her the next nastia (she needs a Russian coach) on bars and beam


      Ebee is not on my team because I don't see her factoring any where I see her as a world cup gymnast and nothing else I never really liked Finnegan(I think she is a poor excuse for a gymnast) and I lost a lot of respect for madison kocian because she didn't even place at woga classic which is really sad


      P.s if the dome of the fierce five come back that team might change

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    12. Going by Antwerp, McKayla's second vault is not upgradeable as the block is a mess. The amanar is debateable. However, she has recently been injured and will probably keep her routines the same to avoid yet more injury. Even if she does get a Cheng, Simone will win. Notice that Simone came so close to winning in Antwerp despite McKayla having 4 tenths more difficulty. Her execution is better.

      Madison did not place in the AA because she didn't do the AA. She did bars and beam only. Alyssa did not do the AA either and consequently didn't place..but you don't condemn her for that.

      Skinner's execution will stay the same at that gym. They don't care, they are only concerned with her upgrades. On Saturday she vaulted one-armed. I'd like to see her at a world cup or Jesolo but she's not making the worlds team unless there is a string of injuries.

      Simone's bars would outscore Polina's. Polina has not proved herself at all yet. Abigail Milliet would be a better choice but she's too inconsistent.

      If you cannot see the value of the 2nd highest bars score, 2nd highest floor and 3rd best vault then ?? A healthy Ebee is extremely valuable.

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    13. Hi Catherine

      Regarding Baumann (Senior, WOGA), she could be a valuable team member on USA for UB/BB - perhaps over Kocian.

      She makes the team for BB which was quite good. She competed arabian, switch ring, bhs+LOSO, switch leap+switch leap 1/2, full spin, front aerial+front aerial+side aerial, onodi+sissone+staddle jump, 2.5 twist dismount. Her potential D score is 6.4 with 0.5 in CV. At the classic, she missed second connection in her series (front aerial to side aerial) losing 0.1 in CV and 0.1 for SB. Her onodi+sissone may have been slow as well. Regardless she got 14.85 (I estimate 6.2, E: 8.65). This would replace Price's 13.5-14ish score in TF. She beat Kocian at this meet who has a potential D score of 6.2. She received 14.45 with a lot of balance check type errors and questionable connections. Overall, Baumann seemed more stable on the beam.

      Her UB is not high scoring yet, but I can see it being higher in the future. At the classic she competed glide kip mount, toe-on 1/1+shaposh type skill+pak, kip+van leeuwen, kip+piked sole circle+toe-on 1/2+jaeger, kip with 1/2 turn+giant swings+1/1 double tuck dismount. She received 14.4 (I think it's worth 5.8, so 8.4 in E). Currently she wouldn't beat Price, Ross or Biles for a spot on UB in TF - but if she upgrades the piked sole circle and pike sole 1/2 to inbar type elements, she would get +0.3 (two C->D, D+D flight CV 0.1). So she has some workable potential. Meanwhile, Kocian received 15.1 for a very good UB routine. However, even a 15.1 wouldn't be as competitive over Price or Biles' UB scores compared to how much Baumann could contribute on BB.

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    14. I'm as yet unsure about the value of those two. A hybrid of the two would be great! Hopefully Kocian can clean up her bars a bit - cleaner at camp I thought, and bring up her beam a bit. And same for Baumann, consistently hit her connections on beam and improve her bars. A battle for the same worlds spot between the two could do wonders for them.

      Delete
  2. Catherine, thanks so much for this post. I agree with a lot of your analysis so far. Also - I didn't realize worlds was a team of 6 - I learn so much from your blog! Thanks per usual.

    This is my team USA

    Biles, Price and Ross forming the core. Maroney, Finnegan, and Priessman. Alternates are Ernst, Kocian, and SKINNER.

    Biles and Price probably qualify to the AA. This is the line up, () indicating quals only, * indicating better scorer competes in TF.

    Biles - VT UB BB FX
    Price - VT UB (BB) FX*
    Ross - (VT) UB BB (FX)
    Maroney - VT (UB) (BB) FX*
    Finnegan - (UB) BB
    Priessman (VT) FX

    I expect Biles and Price to dominate AA based on their consistency and difficulty. Simone probably outscores Price in difficulty, execution and definitely on beam.

    I put Finnegan on the team, she's so strong on beam historically and in January she showed she essentially has a full BB routine of immense difficulty. I'm sure she'll compete in Europe with the team this year and may even medal on BB and FX here and there. As an AA competitor, I think she might be able to outscore Maroney and Ross, if she does, she would replace one of them as the fourth AA spot in qualifications on the team. Maybe I am dreaming though. I have her competing UB in quals so the two "specialists" compete two events each, I also want her to compete something before she's put up on beam - although her first event has been BB and she "hit" her routine, it just wasn't her best.

    Kocian makes a great UB back up, but her scores as of right now are already comparable to Price and Biles. Maybe 2-3 tenths higher even. I'm worried about her beam and I think she'll only be able to compete FX around the difficulty of Maroney. No amanar hurts her for making the team as AA - so she's like Ross but not as consistent or the same difficulty - yet. Ernst is the most solid BB worker out of my alts, but she could also be useable on UB if desperate. Her FX and VT are good enough too, but obviously, Amanars and 6.2 difficulty values and higher on floor keep her among the alternates and off the team. SKINNER. Skinner's difficulty on floor could get her on this team. She could easily outscore Priessman - but Priessman currently enjoys being more consistent which is what Martha will go for in the end. If Skinner competes consistently this year, she could move up from Alternates.

    Biles and Maroney qualify for VT and challenge each other for medals. Neither of them will have a TTY, but they might both have Chengs as their second vault.

    Ross attempts to qualify for UB finals - I think she has a high change of making finals and will find the competition to be very stiff in finals, making podium will be more difficult.

    Finnegan and Ross qualify to BB final - an unpredictable result occurs in EF (because it's the beam).

    Biles wins FX with absurd difficulty, Priessman, Price, and Maroney attempt to QF.

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    Replies
    1. Hmmm. Skinner is not making a major team unless her execution sharply improves. I REALLY want to see how she would score internationally and would like to see her at Jesolo or a world cup but worlds is way too much of a stretch.

      I'd love Finnegan on the team. But can't quite picture her on it. She's been out so long, there's just too many question marks and she might be better saving herself for NCAA like Baker. Her beam has never scored as high as it should, Ohashi was a much stronger stellar beam worker than her I think. Things like amplitude were an issue. And definitely not an AA contender, she is BB/FX and a great choice..but this lot are just too stacked to let her in I believe. Brenna is left in the dark too.

      A healthy Ross is still number 2 in the AA. By rights, she should have ben surpassed by others. A healthy and fit Ebee is still absolutely slammed for her leaps, look at her world cup scores. Kyla still has the edge, but barely.

      Maroney's second vault is going nowhere soon. Extremely wonky block and only the memory of London gets her through it I think.

      Kocian is very lovely on bars, but she has lots of little form errors that add up, as well as no experience. Biles could actually incur less deductions.

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    2. I agree, a lot of my choices are long shots and there's not a lot known yet- but that's what makes these predictions so fun so far away from worlds!

      I think Price will overtake Ross, but who knows. Price also committed to Stanford, so she may defer for worlds or she may just go to school leaving a huge spot to fill on team USA.

      I agree, Brenna is left out in this competition - plus she intends to attend Oklahoma for NCAA so that's another question if she'll continue elite into the college school year.

      Maroney has said she plans to upgrade her 2nd vault to a Cheng. I think it will help her with the mental issues from London because it's a new vault. She has been frail the past two years, so that's a big question mark. Honestly, of all those selected on my team - she's the most replaceable. I believe she could be a huge asset for the team, but historically she's had shakier results on UB and BB. With so many US gymnasts competing Amanars and with the 6.3 current value, her standing is greatly reduced. That said, she has amazing potential, has accumulated a great deal of international experience and trained very smart in a short amount of time to get herself onto the Worlds team in 2013 - she could make it again.

      I guess I'm just rooting for Finnegan! I think she can pull it together to be a contender. Same with Skinner - her tumbling skills are very impressive, she has a lot to clean up, but she may not be needed for bars or uneven bars. Say something happens to Priessman, Maroney or Price - why not bring her into the team to see how she scores? Besides, a heavily deducted Skinner (without a fall) is better than a Ross routine on FX or VT for TF.

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    3. If only Brenna or Ebee were capable of scoring well on beam! I think if they are looking good this summer they'll defer college.

      Maroney's amanar looks more upgradeable but I don't think it will either. She may well be maxed out, thanks to injuries and I suppose growth also. Her experience counts for a lot and I really don't see her being left at home if she's healthy.

      If there are injuries then Skinner makes more sense. We'll see!

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    4. I bet Marta blacklists Brenna after Al's comments after worlds. I don't think she'll factor in a major way unless everyone else falters.

      There's so much talent in the US but also so much frailty. McKayla, Lexie, Madison, Amelia, Sarah, Sabrina.. all question marks to some extent.

      I want to see Skinner on the world stage, purely out of sheer curiosity! I bet Brenna, Ebee and Sarah are college bound.

      Delete
    5. Brenna is a great gymnast useful on 3 events, it's a pity she's not an automatic 'in'. If Ebee doesn't make it I'd use Brenna without resorting to one of the alternates listed.

      Geddert made comments too. I'm not sure, Marta has known Fong for decades and might just tune him out. The fact is his gymnasts just haven't been the 'It' girls they need/ed to be to make teams.

      Sure, but at a world cup :p Her execution is a bit frightening and at worlds it would be way too much of a risk.

      Yes, but on the other hand..the US could win this with 4 girls.

      Delete
  3. Catherine, have you heard Laís Souza, the former brazilian gymnast, injured her spine training for the sochi olympics? She's now a quadriplegic and may need a ventilator for the rest of her life. What a shame, I was a big fan of her gymnastics, especially her floor.

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    1. Yes indeed, desperately sad news. They can't say anything with any certainty at this stage but hopefully the outlook is less bleak with the next news about her.

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    2. Catherine, I'm brazilian and have been following the news about her. The day it happened the brazilian olympic comitee made it look like it was not such a big deal since they're somewhat to blame. She had a traqueostomy and a feeding tube implanted yesterday. These are surgeries done when there's some certainty recovery won't be significant. Unfortunately it appears she won't recover very much.

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    3. Do you think The brazilian olympic comitee is guilty of what happened? Yes she did injured herself skiing for fun outside training, but I got some Mukhina feelings when it was announced she would train for 6 months to make the olympic games in a sport she never practiced.

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    4. Ah, I didn't understand the full significance of that statement then :( That's also very sad her injury was played down.

      I don't think they are guilty as such. It was a freak accident and she is a grown woman capable of making her own decisions..but they could definitely bear some blame alright.

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  4. I really hope Noemi Makra makes floor finals in 2014 after being so ridiculously robbed in Antwerp.

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    1. That would be amazing! But look at the depth in that final. Ferrari is not even in it. Makra's d-scores are too low :(

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  5. Team Russia

    We have the same team practically, I would add BB to Afanasyeva's program in QF round.

    Mustafina is taking a break, but she has mentioned she intends to return for worlds and she's so valuable on team Russia, she's probably top 3 in any event. My core team would be Komova, Mustafina, Afanasyeva and Grishina. Kharenkova makes in the team as as a specialist, but honestly - if any core team member here is weak because of injury, meningitis, etc, Kharenkova becomes an all-around gymnast for the team. The last spot I had trouble deciding on, since it depends on everyone's status - but Paseka is a good choice for vault alone. I expect Komova, Afan and Grish to at least have a DTY. Komova and Afan might be able to throw an Amanar and I think Mustafina might compete two vaults (DTY, "Mustafina") if Afan and Paseka do not compete both vaults.

    Komova and Mustafina lead the way on UB and qualify easily to EF. But Paseka and Grish will have competitive routines and whoever is better will compete in TF.

    On BB, Kharenkova, Komova, Mustafina, Grish and Afan could all make finals based on nerves and injuries. In TF, I like Mustafina, Afan and Kharenkova.

    FX could be all over the place. Perhaps Mustafina will tone down her training on floor this year? Especially with the hopeful return of Afan? Any of these gymnasts could make floor finals based on what happens in team quals, but also with Russia's history of injuries.

    MUSTIFINA VT* UB BB FX*
    KOMOVA VT* UB (BB) FX*
    AFANSYEVA VT* (UB) BB FX
    GRISHINA VT* UB* (BB) FX*
    PASEKA VT UB*
    KHARENKOVA BB FX

    () QF only, *best score or team strategy to rest AA athletes will be chosen for TF

    My alternates would be Shelgunova, Kramerenko, and Rodionova

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    1. Oh wow, I forgot Shelgunova! I don't think she could make the team, but indeed a valuable backup. Rodionova..I do not see her as particularly useful.

      I have heard that Mustafina's break extended only to January and was due to exams, and that she'll be back training as normal from now on. Either way she's in Nanning. Her fellow Olympians are so unpredictable though.

      Floor finals are going to be stiff, I don't see any of them breaking in there except Afan. Hard to know!

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  6. USA: I think your predictions are spot-on. However, if Price decides to go to college, the US loses a great bars worker and I just can't imagine anyone else taking her spot unless Kaetlyn Ohashi comes back. Peyton Ernst isn't that great IMO, Skinner needs to clean up her form, Dowell will not be useful in a strong VT and FX team, and like you said, Finnegan is a question mark. Do you think the rest of the Fierce Five could pull off a comeback, Catherine?

    RUS: Ugh...I'm tired of Paseka making teams for a vault she can't even do properly. If Afan comes back fighting and Aliya regains her second vault, I think Russia will choose Shelgunova over her. This team is so strong in retrospect, but without Komova or Mustafina, they're screwed. Plus, we don't know if Afan will come back from her surgery or retire.

    ROU: I DESPERATELY want Iordache to be injury free and win a title or two because she has been unlucky ever since she turned senior. But I also want Diana Bulimar to step out of Iordache's shadow and prove herself, too. I also wish the best for Munteanu! I think Ocolisan will be on the team instead of Stanila. I don't know why people prefer her over Ocolisan, but to me, Ocolisan has more potential on ALL events. Plus, she could be useful in vault. Not only that, but instead of just three gymnasts preforming in team finals, I think Zarzu will play a role too. Vault is a strong event for her so she could make a vault final if she learns a second vault. Also, I heard she can do a DLO on floor so she can be useful there too with upgrades.

    CHN: I feel really bad they won't be at their best in front of the home crowd. If what you say about Jiaxin's inconsistency is true, then your prediction about this team is spot-on. Wouldn't it be terrible if one of the gymnasts are injured and China resorts to sending Zeng Siqi? :0 To me Zeng Siqi is the new Huang Qiushuang.

    ITA: I made a team for them even without Mariani,
    Vanessa Ferrari VT, UB, BB, FX, AA
    Carlotta Ferlito VT, (UB), BB, FX, AA
    Erika Fasana VT, UB, FX
    Giorgia Campana (VT), UB
    Elisa Meneghini BB
    Francesca DeAgostini (BB)

    Personally, I hope all of these gymnasts will be HEALTHY and INJURY FREE this year. It's really sad to see your predictions being way off because so many gymnasts are injured. Plus, it's boring to see a competition where only 4 gymnasts are battling for a medal. Will you be doing Euros predictions? If so, will you also do the juniors?

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    1. I think Price will defer. The team is strong enough without her but it would be such a pity if she wasn't there.

      Tan Jiaxin is unpredictable. They are trying to get more events out of her but so far she is VT/UB. It would be great if she had a strong floor too.. Zeng Siqi...yeah. She's also in a coaching group which will do nothing for her.

      I like this Italian team but they're getting 3 other new seniors who will have their say I think- Tea Ugrin, Lara Mori and Martina Rizzelli.

      I don't think I'll do Euros. Maybe YOG.

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    2. Oops, missed some in my reply.

      - Russia need a specialist to overtake Paseka and I don't think they have one. Rodionova..no. Shelgunova..useful team worker I think, but not a specialist and Sosnitskaya would need big improvement on vault or floor to snatch the spot either.

      - You could be right about Ocolisan. I'm not sure either girl would make any finals regardless, interesting to see how they do this year.

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  7. I think most of your predictions will prove to be spot-on. My only quibble is that I'd put Shang Chunsong or even Huang Huidan in BB finals over Yao Jinnan.

    China's team is a bit of a mystery at this point. Chen Siyi and Tan Jiaxin might both make the team over Wang Wei. They're coached by Xiong Jingbin the (nominal) head coach of the WAG team, whereas Wang Wei's coach is something of non-entity. It's also possible that Tan Jiaxin's consistency will improve now that she's training under Xiong. Her previous National Team coaches were the genii behind Huang Qiushuang (and poor Wu Lliufang). 'Nuff said.

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    1. I don't think Huang Huidan has the difficulty but her routine is fantastic..I'd love if she could. I'm hoping Yao Jinnan's routine will be reworked with the tuck full gone. Makes no sense to leave it as it is or have it really empty..she's a very good and consistent beam worker. Shang Chunsong I think will come very close..not sure how her execution will be judged.

      Very much a mystery. Wang Wei's value is floor too, Tan Jiaxin is an utter mess there so far. I think the last place is fairly evenly 50/50 but that Wang Wei will earn hers.

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  8. How can we be making predictions this early when we haven't seen any domestic competitions yet? To see who has upgraded, who has learned to conquer their competition nerves, and who has become more consistent? I think by the summertime, so many gymnasts will be surprising us (for the better and worse) that all these predictions will change. Just remember, people thought Simone wold take a bronze in the AA and maybe a medal on vault at Worlds- that was it...they gave her no credit for anything else because they based their predictions on something as far-gone as the American Cup. But gymnasts do learn how to improve and I think that we should wait to see how much each have improved (or deteriorated) before we judge them.

    Certainly, the recent slew of USAG videos shows that every girl there knows what she needs to do to catch Marta's attention and all those lovely upgrades I'm seeing make me wish some of those girls would rep Puerto Rico just to make a team . Hell, even Polina is looking better!!! This is gonna be one exciting year for USA. The Russians...*sigh*...no matter the strength of that team, they have serious competition-mentality issues that make them come up the losers even when they have the potential for greatness. The only prediction I might feel safe making for them is that Afan will not do the amanar anymore because of her ankle issues, plus she barely got it around at Universiade and I blame her lack of amplitude and flight on the vault for her recent injuries. It'll be a better year for Romania, god willing.

    -Kari

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    1. I will be predicting closer to the time. The last time I did this proved to be very entertaining for me, but it's also more than that as it helps me to envision worlds and get excited for it. It's also interesting to look back and see how wrong it was, it's a reflection on how unpredictable the sport is, and how many injuries there are in the last while. It's a 'fun' post but it has value.

      Many others understood from her routines and upgrades that she was a favourite for the AA title, and a big floor and vault contender. The idea that she could qualify for all 4 event finals was discussed close to the start of last year. Certainly there was a lot of emphasis placed on her consistency but she was still a hot favourite predictions wise.

      I think Romania will have a decent year. Steady and consistent, and they have plenty of new seniors to experiment with throughout the year. Russia yeah..they're a lot harder to say anything about.

      Delete
  9. Really hope sophie scheder can make it to ub finals... love her routine

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    1. Yes..love her lines. Looking forward to seeing her at American Cup. Both her and Roxi got low execution at worlds, it will be interesting to see their scores develop this year.

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  10. My bet for the Romanian team includes Ocolisan and Teodoru. Its a bit too early to name a reason, but its just a feeling. :) We will see.

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    1. I'm so looking forward to seeing the new seniors and how Stanila and Ocolisan get on..they might as well be new too, for how much we see of them. You know a lot more than me about their potential, it will be very interesting to see alright :)

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  11. Hey Catherine nanning whoever you are read what I write before you put down your nonsense. I never said kyla would win floor but with the upgrades and getting her floor up to around 15 she can win gold this year last I checked she won silver in the aa ub and bb that's pretty darn good compared to a musty or lordache so put your glasses on and read . Plus I was referring to bailie keys scores as a jr being better than everyone except biles and Ross. But by 2015 and the Olympis she'll be unstoppable if you can't see that you're either and idiot or bias. This girl is the real deal she'll beat biles and anyone else in 2016 finally with you're smoking I predict this yr if Kyla's floor is up she will beat biles what do you got to say about that

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    1. Kyla is currently out with a back injury. Her floor is pretty much as much as she can do, and so is vault. It is highly unlikely she can up her bars and beam to be on the level with Simone, especially since Simone has upgraded quite significantly. Of course her routines and scores are good, I'm just not sure how she will be this year. The injury is bad news and it may be that she will focus on UB/BB to minimise injury, be a major help to USA still, and keep healthy for college.

      Bailie is 100% not relevant to a discussion about this year's worlds. I am not talking about Glasgow or Rio, just Nanning..where this year's worlds will be held.

      I will just end up deleting your comments if you continue being rude.

      Delete
    2. How's bailie not relavant we start looking out two yrs in advance and ill stop being rude when you stop discrediting Kyla's talent plus yes she is injured I can see that's makes a dif however off note if bailie is put on American cup next yr or cup of Italy this yr I predict she'll beat Simone biles that's a garentee so yes she is relevant two yrs out anyone can see that delete my post it just shows I know what I'm talking about

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    3. She's not relevant to this post. This is only predictions of worlds this year, not anything else further on in the quad. She is obviously very relevant to worlds next year and Rio. Bailie's difficulty is not high enough to outscore Simone- they would not of course be competing directly against each other. Simone has more than a point more difficulty..actually nearly two points. Roughly the same beam, 0.5 more on vault, 0.5 at least on floor, 0.9 more on bars as Bailie's routine stood last year and Simone's with her upgrade. Bailie is currently injured, probably minor, but it could stave off any upgrades just yet. It is off season after all.

      Kyla could take silver in the AA, if Komova is not up to scratch. A healthy Komova has a lot more difficulty but that's hard to assess. I'm not sure about Kyla yet..a back injury can be quite serious and she may choose to focus on her best events, stay healthy for college. Easier to judge in summer when she's hopefully competing AA. BUT I do think she won't upgrade regardless.

      I have no problem with anyone stating their opinions here - the only requirement is to be civil to me and anyone else.

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    4. We can disagree but I don't know how you figure Simone has a two pt advantage on bailie first everyone knows they score jrs lower and she's still getting 59 to 60 that's pretty impressive plus bailies floor and bb is better tha Simone with her ub about the same and she's hitting around 15.2 to 15.3 on vault so I don't know we're you are getting your 2 PTs from and kyla if healthy with the upgrades on floor with ub and bb can beat Simone she's clean and almost never makes mistakes so I'm not sure what you are watching or were you are getting you're info but by next ye bailie will beat Simone and be a force to reckon with last I checked they were scouting out jordyn and Shawn two yrs before Olympis

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    5. Hi anon, while you are correct that Key will be relevant in 2015, she is irrelevant to the World Championships in Nanning this year (as Catherine has pointed out) - she will still be a junior and therefore ineligible to compete for team USA. Here is a breakdown of the gymnasts current recent difficulty scores:

      Biles: VT 6.3, UB 6.1, BB, 6.0, FX 6.5 (AA: 24.9) - Antwerp 2013
      Ross: VT 5.8, UB 6.4, BB, 5.9, FX, 5.7 (AA: 23.8) - Antwerp 2013
      Key: VT 5.8, UB 5.4, BB, 6.5, FX 6.0 (AA: 23.7) - US Nationals 2013

      These D scores reflect what the gymnasts received in competition; however, they do not reflect the potential difficulty achieved if the gymnasts hit all of their connections or included their most difficult skills. For reference, Biles did not receive full difficulty for her beam routine at worlds whereas Key received her full difficulty at US nationals.

      Biles, Ross and Key will hope to improve their difficulty throughout this quad, but as Catherine said, Biles currently enjoys roughly a 1 pt in advantage over Key based on awarded difficulty. If you include Biles' upgrades from USAG training Camp in January, her difficulty is expected to be the following:

      VT, 6.3, UB 6.3, BB, 6.4, FX 6.6 (AA: 25.6). This is 1.9 points ahead of the difficulty that Key showed in 2013.

      In terms of scores from international FIG judges, Biles posted 60.216 at Worlds and Key posted 58.400 (-3.216) at "Junior Worlds" - the International Junior Gymnastics Competition held in Japan.

      Regarding the rest of your speculations based on recent history in the sport: Shawn and Jordyn were favorites going into the Olympics, but if you recall, Liukin and Douglas walked away with AA Gold - Raisman, a prominent US all-around gymnast since 2010 qualified over Wieber to reach the London Final. This means that in each quad, a newcomer, like Douglas or Key, as well as a prominent gymnast from earlier in the quad, Liukin, Biles or Raisman can be successful by the Olympics. We'll be able to gauge everyone's chances at the Olympics better as 2015 concludes.

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    6. Regarding Ross - she is a fantastic gymnast, but her floor exercise hurts her in the AA. She's planning to add BHS+Arabian and side aerial+LOSO combinations on beam. If she is able to incorporate them later this year, her max SV on beam would be 6.7. In 2013, she experimented with adding a whip direct to back tuck on FX (+0.1 CV). In interviews, she has discussed getting the amanar back (6.3). Those are her known upgrades based gymnastics media in 2013.

      Assuming she is able to upgrade, her possible SV is below:

      VT 6.3, UB 6.4, BB 6.7, FX 5.8 (AA: 25.2). She doesn't have these skills yet, whereas Biles already has her planned upgrades for 2014.

      Currently there are a number of factors holding Ross back. She unfortunately has a back injury which is very serious sport. (For reference, Ohashi's back injury in 2013 has left her unable to train consistently for an entire year. She's currently musing whether or not to pursue elite and to attempt to compete at level 10 to prepare for NCAA in college). I doubt Ross' coaches will risk her health to upgrade in 2014.

      In addition to the back injury, Ross trains half days and attends public school (most elite gymnasts train 5-6 hours a day and are home schooled). It's possible she will not be able to make her upgrades given her current gym/school balance. Moreover, she lacked the stamina required to compete a difficult FX (by US standards) in 2012 and 2013.

      In summary, it's unlikely Ross will beat Biles this quad. To match Biles in difficulty, she would have to achieve her planned upgrades and still find 4 more tenths to match Simone in difficulty. Further, she needs to heal and become more conditioned so she can be consistent in competing much more difficult routines.

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    7. You make no sence by next year biles will be beaten Kyla's injury isn't that bad and she looked good in this months camp key look phenomenal last I checked I don't know we're you got you're numbers from keys scores as a jr are on par with the likes of Shawn jordyns numbers as a jr bailies bb floor and ub is better than biles so you must be getting numbers from somewhere else. Last I checked in less than a yr kyla got her floor up from 13.6 to around 14.5 so her injury is slight and she is working on her floor with artistry plus if she gets her armerar back she'll beat biles no problem. Let me say again again key is relavant two yrs out you must not understand or know what is going on. Finally I predict kyla will have her floor down and will have bb and ub upgrades and hopefully the armarar down and will beat biles

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    8. meh I must not understand anything, I'm so dumb!

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    9. Biles is going nowhere, health permitting. The majority would share your opinion, gym bot.

      Delete
  12. I think that there are some upcoming seniors to watch for Britain: Amy Tinkler for example.

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    1. Absolutely, really looking forward to next year's seniors. I wonder who they'll pick for YOG.

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    2. Oops I thought she was turning senior this year. Sorry

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    3. No need to be sorry, I keep mixing years up myself even though I researched it a lot for the post listing when who turns senior..it's the first post in the sidebar :)

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    4. I think its cool

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  13. Ah, team Russia. I might just not make any predictions to save myself the heartache. But I think it is unlikely that Komova will be so unlucky as to miss a second Worlds, though I wouldn't bet on her necessarily being AA competitive. I do think Paseka's position is shaky, as she's still pretty much a one-eventer on an event she's not at all reliable on. It will likely depend a lot on Vika and Afan's status. If they need a VT/FX then Sosnitskaya is a better bet - supposedly she's training an Amanar and looking at the dramatic improvement she's made on VT over 2013 I wouldn't say it's completely out of the question, certainly her block is now looking better than Paseka's and Nabs' at least. But if it's FX/BB then Kharenkova is better placed. Grishy is lucky that she's still one of the better bars workers, esp with Kuzmina not really being up to much, Nabs retiring and Vika unknown, as that's her most likely ticket into Worlds. I would hesitate to put her up on BB but FX, maybe. But I'm biased as I love how Soviet pixie her style is.

    Romania is looking better, PROVIDED no one gets injured. And that's a big caveat given Munteanu's propensity for injury, Didi coming back post ACL tear and Lari's ongoing medical saga. Depressing year for China. GB might be good, but will be even better in 2015 and 2016 when their promising juniors turn senior.

    US is set to dominate unless Marta manages to break everyone. Heck, they could form 2 really top notch teams to compete against each other. Or 3.

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    1. Komova is such an excellent gymnast that it's hard to imagine her not being competitive in the AA, if she is healthy and able for it. But I think to some extent she will be weaker than her former self, for sure. I don't see her being able to beat Simone at all. I would nearly put a healthy Kyla on a par with Komova but Kyla's back injury might mean she'll concentrate on her strong events maybe? With her height and college ambitions she may well choose to preserve herself. I think the US team could just send 4 gymnasts and still win.

      Paseka was the hardest to include, and Kuzmina was the easiest to exclude. At this point Sosnitskaya hasn't proven herself worthy of a specialist spot...we'll see, she may well do, especially since Paseka is plagued by injuries.

      I would put Kharenkova up on floor over Grishy, unless Grishy competes floor with great landings and consistency this year with higher difficulty than Kharenkova. Not sure about Komova for TF floor, that's 50/50 with Kharenkova.

      Didi didn't tear her ACL, I'm not sure what she did but it was relatively minor..a flare-up of an old issue and Bellu apparently was able to treat it immediately and save her having to rest it for a longer period. Romania will be interesting, they have a crowd of new seniors and 2 relatively untested 2013 seniors..should be good. Hopefully some okay bar sets will be the result.

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  14. Wait- you're putting Kocian on beam and not bars? Her beam is lovely, but not consistent enough for Martha's liking, methinks (though this team can absorb a fall- but I highly doubt she'd be on beam as a one-event specialist.) Her bars may have nagging deductions, but she was 2nd at Classic and night one of P&G last year.

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    1. It's an issue with this team. Maroney, Priessman and Price are not exactly who you'd want on beam. I'd stick Price on it if Kocian proves unable, but I really thought her beam was typical WOGA- nice, clean and steady. As far as bars goes, I think Biles may be able to outscore her, it depends. Biles has added 0.2 to hers making 6.3 and I think she has more up her sleeve.

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  15. Kinda crazy, but have you ever thought of making predictions for Rio 2016? It's really far away, but I have some guesses and I would like to hear what other people think. Love this post btw.

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    1. I draw my line at 1 year out! :) I couldn't even think about predicting but I will say what teams I'd love:

      USA
      Simone Biles, Nia Dennis, Norah Flatley, Laurie Hernandez, Bailie Key.

      ROU
      Andreea Munteanu, Asiana Peng, Madalina Blendea, Diana Bulimar, Andra Stoica

      RUS
      Seda Tutkhalyan, Ekaterina Sokova, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Aliya Mustafina, Maria Kharenkova

      GB
      Catherine Lyons, Ellie Downie, Tyesha Mattis, Amy Tinkler, Gabby Jupp

      CHN
      Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Lv Jiaqi, Luo Huan, Yuan Xiaoyang

      I can't guess though, gymnastics is too changeable.

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    2. Laurie Hernandez won't be old enough for senior competition until 2016

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    3. Yup, that is in reply to Rio predictions but since Rio is so far away it's actually 'teams I want'

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  16. I only see two people for the US on FX. Any guesses on who the third might be?

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    1. I also had four on bars for them, not sure how I rushed the deepest and most interesting team :p

      Thanks for pointing that out, I removed the brackets for Ebee as they are a mistake. Only Simone is an absolute certainty there, the other places are between Ebee, Lexie and McKayla. All three have leap issues holding their scores back, but monster difficulty of course.

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  17. Call me crazy but I hope for the successful return of Aly. I just love her! Realistically, I would only expect her to be a factor on floor and perhaps beam. Vault has always been a little messy and dare I say slightly scary (ahem, amanar which I think she only competed one year, 2012) -don't hold me to that though- And as for bars.... word has it that she's having the slowest return on that apparatus. That's understandable since it's her worst event and also generally much harder for power gymnasts to compete on (unless your name is Simone). Hopefully as she picks up her old skills she'll spend some more time perhaps making what improvements she can on execution. But her beam work is often very good and I miss her fierceness-she totally attacks the beam! And of course, her floor is what I really long for! I know that sometimes she gets a lot of crap for not having an "artistic" routine but what she does have is tasteful and totally works for her! After her stint on DWTS she'll undoubtably more easily incorporate emotion and expression on her floor (which I hear is gonna be new *Ep!!!*) Not to mention that she already was showing great improvement in expression way back during trials and the Olympics. My one issues is that I hope she is really actually focussing the best of her energy on training and NOT Public Appearances. It seems that she's been having those quite frequently recently. So call me a call me pathetic and insane but I absolutely love this girl and really hope that not only her comeback is successful, but that she'll be a key player in 2014 worlds.

    ****And I don't care what anyone else says, every time I watch her perform FX during the team finals, I bawl my eyes out****

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    1. She could certainly knock Lexie from the team if she's ready to go. Aly is a brilliant addition to a team, so steady and consistent in TF. I am curious about her..she did say she's aiming to be back at camp this month or last month. She has the example of Alicia before her and a smart coach. Comebacks are always interesting, regardless of the outcome. It would be smart timing too, I think she and Jordyn will be pushed out of teams next year and the year after but definitely room for them this year.

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    2. Another thing hurting Raisman's return is the code change and the tighter rules on granting the value of elements. Her floor would still be fabulous - but her beam would lose 0.2 CV since connections between saltos in different directions are not allowed (front pike to LOSO) and she would lose 0.1 CV and 0.1 in D score if her layout to two feet is devalued from E to D (bhs+layout two feet). She'll have to pick new skills to incorporate in her routine - so she may not even be preferred to someone like Price on beam. However, Romanian coach - a reliable beamer in every competition (except London AA). Maybe she can make a case for herself.

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  18. Very nice predictions! I agree with most of them and they seem realistic, so I'll just go with what I want to happen.

    Viktoria: AA gold (I think Simone will probably repeat, but I want this for her so bad...and I had a dream that Viktoria won) and a medal on BB
    Simone: AA silver, VT gold, any color on floor, make all 4 efs again
    Larisa: gold on BB, go 4 for 4 during AA
    Jinnan: nail the Mo for gold on UB, get DLO on floor back, get rid of the "tucked fall" on BB
    Andreea: silver on BB
    Diana: win gold on FX (this may be unrealistic, but I love her floor)
    Aliya: silver on UB, remove all twisting passes on fx
    Giulia: medal on VT, probably bronze, learn Amanar and a DDLO
    Moors: either learn to perform that DDLO properly or get rid of it
    Mai: medal on floor
    Kyla: UPGRADE (lol)
    Jordyn: make team and possibly do the AA
    Aly: go away (sorry but I really don't miss her gymnastics)

    Pretty much wishful thinking but I hope at least a few of these can come true.

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    1. Nice! I want Yao to ditch the Mo unless it gets better and more consistent.

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  19. Hi - I'm the original anon who asked for predictions checking in. Thanks so much Catherine, I love all the comments everyone has posted too. I'm already so excited for Worlds this year. I'm looking forward to your future posts as well!

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  20. Wow! Some comments are a bit harsh... and quite misinformed...

    Anyways, I'd like to agree with the person that says she thinks Aly could be a contender. However, I see her as an alternate this year.

    I definitely see Kocian on bars AND beam on TF and possibly qualifying... Her bars looked great this weekend! Also, I'm still not over the fact that she got injured before Worlds. She would have completed my dream team perfectly.

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    1. Kocian did impress at the Woga Classic. Interesting she only competed UB and BB - do you think she's approaching this year as specialist instead of an AA gymnast?

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    2. Ah well 99.9% of comments are not so I'm fine with it.

      Aly could spell doom for Lexie's 'place' in the team, depending on her readiness of course. Beam is an asset to her- Lexie, Ebee, Brenna are bad on it.

      Kocian and Simone will be vying for the third bars spot in quals in this team of mine. SImone's routine is very short and sweet, judges seem to like it, and she has upped it by 0.2 with more in the bag I think- like the dismount. Kocian's routine actually has less difficulty, but she has lots of little form errors that could add up, so that's why she doesn't have that spot here.

      She'd be wise to focus on UB/BB, though as a newish and not outstanding gymnast, she wouldn't be able to drop a routine. They tend not to- Sacramone was the last? Aly even kept bars..

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    3. So when do you see Madison fully back? Will she be ready for Jesolo?? I really hope so... I really think she should stick with AA. She's still very young and I don't think Martha is very keen on having a group of specialists.. It takes a lot to reach the point where you can actually have her respect as one.

      Simone is literally unbeatable, isn't she.. even vying for a bars place in team final.. wow

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    4. I think she will compete AA at Jesolo if she goes. Hopefully she concentrates on UB/BB though as that's where her value lies, and quite apart from her injury last year- she has been very injured prior to that so conservation might be very wise. I think she was off the radar entirely for at least two years.

      Simone's bars will be 6.3 (I think a dismount upgrade is in order also), and she scored high at worlds..her routine is short and that really helps.

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  21. In an interview Madison said she's training everything but was only competing bars and beam at Woga Classic. I think she's just saving herself for now because it early and she's being causing of her previously injured ankle

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    1. I think she'll do all 4 but I hope they don't strive for major upgrades on FX/VT..she wouldn't be used on them and she has been VERY injured in the past.

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    2. I want to start a conversation for youth Olympics and if the u.s doesn't let females go why and why didn't jordyn go in 2010 and if the u.s is sending girls who might they be or whos eligible

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  22. Okay, what is Iordache doing with a bronze in the all-around? She can't deal with a pressure at these big competitions, which she proved at the Olympics and then Worlds. She was to win the gold on the beam in Antwerp and fell, just like she fell in the all-around final. High expectations, no consistancy. Sure, she wins medals at World Cups, when there's no real pressure. She wins medals at the Europeans, but honestly, Olympics and Worlds are more important.

    And I'm pretty sure Romania will not beat Russia. Iordache is the only Romanian gymnast (and possiblty Munteanu, but I'm not sure either) who can score more than a 15.000 and it's only on the beam and floor, + on vault if she's lucky. Plus Romanians are terrible on the uneven bars and they can barely score a 14.000. 2012 team was better and wasn't even close to the Russian team, which made huge errors. It's unlikely for them to win a silver, unless Russia will end up with all of their best seniors injured and will expect Mustafina to win a team medal on her own.

    And I'm pretty sure Ellie Black will not be in the floor final, as much as I like her. You have to really hate Russians if you think Black will outscore Mustafina, Kharenkova and Grishina (unless they fall). I also think that with Mustafina training two vaults again, she will be in the event final instead of one of your last three predicted qualifiers.

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  23. I agree with your prediction for the team final.The psychic effort always exhausts the Russian and Chinese gymnasts , so I’m pretty confident that Romania will finish second, after US. I would love to be gold for Romania, because I’m Romanian, but I'm also realistic, so “silver” is more feasible.I feel sympathy for Chinese team. I wouldn't mind China or even US to finish in front of Romania, what’s important is Romania to finish in front of Russia :)

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