She really is the most jawdropping gymnast. I got so excited when this was released that I lost the head and couldn't really figure out what was new...which is admittedly tough on a 3.5" phone screen anyway.
The Cheng was expected. Not 100% but close. The height is not amazing but the form and technique is. This boosts her second VT D-score by 0.8. It IS more difficult than her amanar but there's no point in that....the amanar is much more familiar for her and will score higher anyway.
Annnnd the shap half makes its appearance! This gives her an automatic 0.2 so 6.3 and although this doesn't show any other upgrades on bars, her dismount is crying out for one and a Ray was slated to replace it before. A Fabrichnova would be ideal either with the height of her and the height she gets on it. Anyway, really it's a pity that shap halves are so necessary to boost d-scores now..hecht transitions can be awesome and Simone's Ray was a good example with great amplitude. The fun part is, this is not your regular toe-on shap half i.e. Van Leeuwen. This is the Khorkina! Especially formulated for a gymnast close to one foot taller than her. Very impressive, and she gets great height on it - I love how she seems to pause in the air. Not the cleanest, hopefully she can tighten it up a bit.
I am loving the resurgence of BHS-LOSO-LOSO, the mainstay of 90's beam. She keeps nice form on it, and while it's hard to judge the amplitude on the series it doesn't look too flat. Probably a very wise move with the crackdown on layouts on beam. The aerial cartwheel - straddle jump looks great, kind of original. Straddles always suit powerhouses very well and are really underused. Simone's beam has been fairly empty (minus the dismount) since the layout was dumped early on so it's great to see it fill out, especially in an unexpectedly great way.
Now floor is where my eyes were deceiving me most. I thought the last pass was a Moors at first. That it ain't, but what is it? The jury is out on a very laid-out piked full-in or a full twisting double layout that's quite piked in the second salto. What do you think? The piked full-in makes sense as I couldn't figure out why she with her power would pike down like that on a straight salto..but then it doesn't because isn't it worth the same as the tucked version, so why bother? HMMMMMM. I was kind of hoping she would keep the front layout in the twisting pass as the height on it was so fun to watch (nobody else rises on that skill!), but the 2.5-front full-straddle (YES, straddle again!) is so well done that I have no quarrel with it at all.
Curious about the composition too. Silivas, (mystery pass), Biles, 2.5-front full-straddle?
Is there anything she can't do?? She's quite possibly the most powerful gymnast ever, yet has the power to surprise on her 'weak' events too.
What is your favourite upgrade of hers? Do you think she has more up her sleeve? (*cough* Bhardwaj footage late last year, and any number of floor passes..) Does a healthy or otherwise Viktoria Komova stand a chance? Are you a code genius? I know her bars are at 6.3 but that is it..
Her upgrades are major. Frankly she doesnt need them this year, but it doesnt hurt to test them out now, see how they score and go hard in 2015-2016. Now that she has three legit vaults, Mckayla Maroney needs to step it up.
ReplyDeleteHi Catherine, I totally agree with regarding the Vault. The Cheng is super impressive, although I bet in AA she'd compete the Amanar for its consistency.
DeleteUB: Yes her Khorkina (E) replaces the Ray (C) for 0.2 on bars, 6.3. She submitted a skill at Antwerp, a Weiler with 1/1 pirouette for bars. If she ever manages to compete that, it can see it being rated an E skill. It would replace one of her D skills for 0.1. If she can replace the 1/1 double tuck (D) dismount with a Fabrichinova (F), +0.2. With a Ray (G), +0.3.
BB: The BHS LOSO LOSO (B+C+C) gets 0.1 in CV and 0.1 for series bonus. If her Antwerp routine stays the same, her new potential start value is 6.3. If she is able to add the side aerial+ straddle jump (D+A), an additional 0.1 (6.4).
FX: My guess is she was going for the full twisting double layout (H), but it's too piked. International gymnast quoted her sometime last year that she was planning a massive floor routine for US Nationals including the Silivas, Biles, 3/2 indirect to full-in tucked and a double arabian piked. Since she seems to be magically learning skills, I wouldn't put the full twisting double layout passed her.
The 5/2 + 1/1 (D+C) is 0.2, increasing her previous pass (D+B) by 0.1. (SV 6.6). If she competes the full twisting DLO (H), it would replaced the full-in (E) for 0.3 more (6.9).
PS. I am the anonymous who asked you in a previous post if you would post a 2014 Worlds prediction post. I am still really craving it!
PPS: Sorry for the terrible grammar in the last comment. I just looked for her BB routine on youtube because I couldn't remember if it previously contained a side aerial - it does not. Her BB is pretty jam-packed, but if she squeezes the side aerial+straddle leap combination in to what she already has, it would replace a C element (back tuck or LOSO), for another 0.1. So her potential D is 6.5 if she makes both changes.
DeleteWouldn't that straddle jump after 5/2 + 1/1 (D+C) give her an additional 0.1 in CV? Would that mean her start value could potentially be a 7.0?
DeleteI forgot about the mystery Weiler 1/1. It seems too far away that we'll see her compete! Thank you for the code values Anon. It will be interesting if Simone can bring a triple wolf into her beam as well although the 2.5 is valuable anyway.
DeleteI read that the straddle in her twisting pass isn't worth anything and is moreso there to clean up the landing. It would be great if she kept it and I bet the bounce would be impressive on a podium.
I really want to see her do the double Arabian piked, it looked so clean and awesome when she threw one on tumble trak. I wonder can she do a triple tucked. Not this year but maybe? The sky is the limit with her! I'd love a leap from her Silivas either. Imagine Silivas-leap, FTDLO, Biles, Dos Santos 1. Not beyond her reach..although a pity to hypothetically dump the twisting combo pass.
Anon, I should be able to do that worlds prediction post soon!
Hi Rod, you're only allowed to compete an A leap out of an E (or higher) acrobatic skill on floor exercise for +0.1.
DeleteHi Catherine, If she can make a leap out of the silivas work, I'm totally fine with it (CoP w/e) but the only leaps out of tumbles I like are the stags after triple fulls and double arabians - they just really seem to bounce gracefully out tumbles in forward direction or from the fulls (I liked the 2.5 full to split leap too -but that's killed in this CoP). So many gymnasts under rotated their double tucks, 1/1 double tucks, double pikes etc, that when they attempted a jump out, it barely got any lift. Perhaps Simone with all her power can make a leap look athletic and high. Can't wait for your post Catherine!
What do you think about Kharenkova's double pike-sheep? It's interesting for sure. I love double stags too, and even a really bouncy split leap or scissone is great.
DeleteI know the D/E tumble thing but no bonus for any combination twisting passes? So many leap out of them, hmm.
Predictions are up :)
I'm sooo worried for Kharenkova's back when she competes her double pike (under-rotated) then boom sheep jump! I'd rather she leap out with a tuck after a good double back/pike for no credit. In some videos, the connection also looks a little slow... I'm just too worried about that combination.
DeleteI just scanned your predictions, so excited to think them over!
Hi Catherine, more videos are up at USA gymnastics. Missing in videos are Maroney, Finnegan and Milliet. Maroney might still be injured, Finnegan is not a current US national team member, so perhaps they are not allowed to use her image, not sure about Milliet (fingers crossed there are more videos coming). Kocian, Hults, Dowell, Skinner, Ernst, Price, Ross, Desch, and Schennikova now have videos. Also a few juniors.
ReplyDeleteTo my eye, Kocian, Hults and Ross (despite a back injury) looked to be doing the most effortless work (except maybe Kocian on floor). The others had bars or beam that looked a lot more labored, but of course on their remaining events they were fantastically athletic.
Milliet is not on the NT. Hopefully she will be. Very interesting videos even from those not doing anything new. Dennis was probably my favourite, along with Flatley and Biles. Sooo excited for this season.
DeleteThere seems to a consensus that Simone plans to replace her ray with the khorkina, but based on its placement in the routine, and the fact that it's still only 2014, I have to wonder if she's not just going to replace the Maloney and keep the ray for this season, or at least until she cleans up the khorkina a bit.
ReplyDeleteI noticed the placement, but I presume the Maloney will replace the Ray? We'll see.
DeleteBased on Simone's hand placement during the "mystery pass" I think it was meant to be a piked full.
ReplyDeleteI do think it will become a FTDLO anyway though.
DeleteCan I ask your opinion on the upgrades that Alyssa Baumann shows in her January training clips? Not in context to World's, but just her strengths/potential as a gymnast. I'm not sure how old she is, but like a lot of these other girls, I hope that she is inspired by Kyla, Mckayla and Ebee, and stick around for another quad even if she doesn't make the Rio Olympic team.
ReplyDelete-Kari
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