Monday, 13 October 2014

Predictions, schmedictions

It's always fun to see how these pan out. Predictions post is here and was written almost exactly a month ago.

First, the all-around.

Prediction

1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Kyla Ross
4. Larisa Iordache
5. Vanessa Ferrari

Actual

1. Simone Biles DING
2. Larisa Iordache. Up two
3. Kyla Ross DING
4. Aliya Mustafina. Down two
5. Yao Jinnan

2/5 placements, 4/5 names.

Team Final

Prediction

1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
4. GB
5. Romania

Actual

1. USA DING
2. China DING
3. Russia DING
4. Romania Up 1
5. Italy

Overestimated GB, underestimated Italy. Podium correct! 3/5 placements, 4/5 names.

Vault Qualifiers

Prediction

Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Giulia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Hong un Jong
Phan Thi Ha Thanh
Ellie Black
Maria Paseka

Actual

Simone Biles DING
Mykayla Skinner DING
Giulia Steingruber DING
Hong un Jong DING
Phan Thi Ha Thanh DING
Alla Sosnitskaya
Claudia Fragapane
Alexa Moreno

5/8 for names. Oksana and Maria would have qualified had they been there, I feel.

Vault podium

Prediction

1. Simone Biles
2. Mykayla Skinner
3. Giulia Steingruber

Actual

1. Hong un Jong
2. Simone Biles
3. Mykayla Skinner

2/3 for names, 0/3 placements. This was before it was known that Giulia developed a twisting block and Hong un Jong showed significant improvement at Asian Games.

Bars Qualifiers

Prediction

Ashton Locklear
Kyla Ross
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Ruby Harrold
Becky Downie
Huang Huidan
Yao Jinnan

Actual

Ashton Locklear DING
Lisa Katherina Hill
Huang Huidan DING
Yao Jinnan DING
Ruby Harrold DING
Daria Spiridonova DING
Aliya Mustafina DING
Becky Downie DING

7/8 names! Just Kyla Ross who was surpassed in qualifications late on.

Bars Podium

Prediction

1. Yao Jinnan
2. Huang Huidan
3. Becky Downie

Actual

1. Yao Jinnan DING
2. Huang Huidan DING
3. Daria Spiridonova

2/3 for placement and names. Becky didn't have the best routine, unfortunately.

Beam Qualifiers

Prediction

Larisa Iordache
Simone Biles
Kyla Ross
Aliya Mustafina
Bai Yawen
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova
Andreea Munteanu

Actual

Larisa Iordache DING
Simone Biles DING
Kyla Ross DING
Aliya Mustafina DING
Bai Yawen DING
Yao Jinnan
Asuka Teramoto
Ellie Black

5/8 for names is respectable. Andreea, Maria and Shang all massively underperformed in prelims.

Beam Podium

Prediction

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Maria Kharenkova
3. Bai Yawen

Actual

1. Simone Biles
2. Bai Yawen
3. Aliya Mustafina

Lol. 1/3 for names, 0/3 for placement.

Floor Qualifiers

Prediction

Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Vanessa Ferrari
Claudia Fragapane
Shang Chunsong
Larisa Iordache
Roxana Popa
Giulia Steingruber

Actual

Simone Biles DING
Mykayla Skinner DING
Vanessa Ferrari DING
Claudia Fragapane DING
Larisa Iordache DING
Larissa Miller
Aliya Mustafina
Erika Fasana

5/8 for names

Floor Podium

Prediction

1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Vanessa Ferrari

Actual

1. Simone Biles DING
2. Larisa Iordache DING
3. Aliya Mustafina

Close! 2/3 for placement and names.

Overall, out of a grand total of 54 I had 37 names right and out of 22 podium places I got 9 correct. So I suppose that proves that it's relatively easy to predict the dominance of the big 4, but that competition is wildly unpredictable?

Good effort, and a lot of fun.

Tomorrow I'll post about today's finals and soon after a big post about worlds in general, reflections and such.



4 comments:

  1. Congratulations! I don't think GB was overestimated, so much as they lost Tunney who was important on three pieces. Good for Harrold stepping up and getting a DTY. I'm looking forward to see what this team can do next year, with Ellie Downie as well.

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    1. And Tyesha Matthis and Amy Tinkler, should be great. It's not so much them I overestimated, but their depth. Their ability to cope with losing a gymnast...their depth on some events just isn't great.

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  2. Don't think it's fair to say that Shang massively underperformed in the BB prelims. She missed a couple of iffy connections, but there were no major wobbles or balance checks. She placed 5th in qualifications.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right, I'm letting her overall worlds experience colour my perception of how she did at certain times.

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