Tuesday, 10 July 2012

A look at start values UPDATED 25/7

Start values are in doubt for a few gymnasts, questionable upgrades, amanar possibilities, and fixing of routine connections not boding well for the SV (Jordyn's beam). Nevertheless, it is fun to see them and guess and surmise from them what the gymnast will bring to prelims. Albert at the all-around is doing a great job keeping track of d-scores, but only does the top 20 AA totals, and the top 20 on each, so a lot of the below are missing,

The known highest is Gabby. It's worth noting that her bars generally has a d-score of 6.5 or 6.4 in comp, must be a missed connection. Beam also is usually lower by more than a tenth. Romania's scores are varied, highest potential and highest in competition is shown.

Gabby Douglas, USA

Bars: 6.6
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.8

Jordyn blah blah beam in doubt

Jordyn Wieber, USA

Bars: 6.4
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Beam: 6.4 (currently)
Total: 25.5

Aly is right behind. Bars obviously dragging her down, she would beat the other two if she had even Jordyn's bars

Aly Raisman, USA

Bars: 5.9
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Total: 25.4

Vika with an amanar brings huge difficulty. A DTY obviously hurts her bigtime. It is very very likely we will see the amanar anyway.Floor needs a boost, and that is definitely a possibility- 0.2 confirmed. Beam up by 0.2- WOW.

Viktoria Komova, Russia

Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Floor: 6.3
Beam: 6.5 UPDATED
Total: 26.3 with amanar, 25.6 with DTY

Larisa will beat them all d-score wise IF she performs all of her potential upgrades and connects them all AND has the amanar. We know she has an amanar, and we know she missed her connections on beam and floor at the Romanian meet. She is the most in question, but she can bring it. The first score is the potential, the second is the highest competed- either pre-upgrades or with missed connections

Larisa Iordache, Romania

Bars: 6.5, 6.1
Vault: 6.5, 5.8
Floor: 6.7, 6.4
Beam: 6.9, 6.7
Total: 26.6, highest possible. Lowest possible is 25. With amanar but using other lowest scores- 25.7. Without amanar but using other highest scores- 25.9, the highest of everyone.

Either way, Larisa is a huge threat that shouldn't be dismissed. 26.6 would be awesome, 26 itself is probably the most realistic IN competition.

Yao Jinnan won bronze in the 2011 Worlds AA, even counting a fall from beam. Without the fall, she would have won and ended the controversy between Jordyn and Vika. Injured this year on a DTY, she is still expected to be a strong contender. However, it is highly unlikely she will bring the creme de la creme, the amanar.

Yao Jinnan, China

Bars: 6.8  7.2 rumoured!
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.4  6.6 full potential UPDATE
Floor: Cannot find d-score. Her routine from worlds was a 6.0. The London test event looked watered down. We'll give her the benefit of the doubt with a 6.0
Total: Assuming 6.0 on floor and beam update, 25.2  25.6 with rumoured 7.2 bars and beam update

Aliya has been eclipsed by others, but is by no means out of the running. Her vault is unknown, she has a DTY but flinging an amanar is possible. I will do it for both. She is likely to at least attempt upgrades on beam and floor. UPDATE: amanar confirmed.

Aliya Mustafina, Russia

Bars: 7.0
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.5
Floor: 6.2
Total:26.2 WOW Musty brings it with all of those updates. 25.9 with no floor upgrade, 25.7 without the beam upgrade either


Here's how some others stack up, including some who aren't actually in the running for AA.

Anastasia Grishina, Russia

Bars: 6.5
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.3 UPDATE 6.5
Floor: 6.1
Total: 24.5 with 5.8 floor and 6.3 beam. 24.9 with all upgrades

Huang Qiushang, China

Bars: 6.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.4
Floor: 6.0
Total: 25.7 with all upgrades 25.4 without

McKayla Maroney, USA

Bars: 5.8
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 6.1
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.4

Elizabeth Price, USA

Bars: 6.3
Vault: 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.0
Total: 24.7

Kyla Ross, USA

Bars: 6.4
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.2
Floor: 5.5
Total: 23.9 With amanar (unlikely) 24.6

Sandra Izbasa, Romania

Bars: 5.8 (other possible d-score unknown)
Vault: 6.1 OR 6.5
Beam: 5.9
Floor: 6.1 OR 6.5
Total: Lowest possible: 23.9 Highest possible: 24.7

Sarah Finnegan, USA

Bars: 5.8
Vault: 5.8
Beam: 6.9
Floor: 6.3
Total: 24.8



IN ORDER, using highest potential scores:

Larisa Iordache (26.6)
Viktoria Komova  (26.3)
Aliya Mustafina (26.1)
Gabby Douglas (25.8)
Huang Qiushang (25.7)
Yao Jinnan (25.6)
Jordyn Wieber (25.5)
Aly Raisman (25.4)
Sarah Finnegan and Anastasia Grishina (24.8)
Elizabeth Price and Sandra Izbasa (24.7)
Kyla Ross (24.6)
McKayla Maroney (24.4)


The order for lowest potential and comp d-scores is too confusing now, and kind of hard because even with the Americans with their known d-scores have been falling short of them all year. It's more interesting to just do 'highest potential'. NOTE: This list changes if some of these upgrades don't happen (Yao Jinnan's 7.2 bars for one..) and also changes if connections don't happen- not only are Romanian floors in doubt, so are several beams AND Douglas' bars and beam. Of course, several of these gymnasts are headcases, so falls are always possible. This is NOT taking execution into account at all.

Very, very interesting. As we can see, the AA will be close- though less close if Iordache actually rocks all of those upgrades. Look at the depth of USA, Sarah Finnegan and Elizabeth Price have HUGE d-scores...as alternates! Here we have in black and white exactly why Kyla Ross has no hope of the AA, actually worse than I thought- McKayla beats her. D-scores are almost scarily high, we have one and quite possibly two beams out of a 6.9- the same as Shawn Johnson's 2008 very difficult beam, which counted two more elements!

EDIT: Woah big error with Gabby, who does NOT tie with Jordyn. She has several times due to missed connections, but her full potential puts her ahead.

MORE EDIT: All new upgrades and upgrade potential added. 

EDIT 25/7- All monster Russian upgrades from training added

5 comments:

  1. China's likely second all arounder Huang Qiushuang has an SV of 25.1 (Assuming hit connections and she continues to compete her Amanar which she did at the Chinese Olympic Trial session)

    VT: 6.5
    UB 6.7
    BB 6.4
    FX 5.7

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. I couldn't find a whole lot of concrete info on her so I let it be.

      Delete
  2. I think your overrating Larissa. Larissa may have this huge D score but she's sure to score very low on bars. The BEST she will get is around a 14.5. She's was overscored on beam/floor at the friendly meet. Komova is likely to out score her by around 1.3 points, and IF Komova hits no, I don't think she'll outscore a hit Komova on beam and floor by that much. It will also be pressure for Larissa to be perfect on beam.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Actually 1.3 is maybe even underestimating things it could easily be as high as 1.5 points for Komova on bars alone. Komova hasn't looked to hot on beam/floor lately. But I think she's FAR more capable of closing the deficit on floor/beam. Than Larissa is capable of closing the deficit no bars....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry I meant to say Larisa will beat them all 'd-score wise' not as in she's actually a cert to win. This is only using full potential d-score and is not counting execution or missed connections or anything like that. That's much harder to do! I do think Larisa has the potential to win, but the competition is fierce. By no means is she a cert.

    ReplyDelete