Start values are in doubt for a few gymnasts, questionable upgrades, amanar possibilities, and fixing of routine connections not boding well for the SV (Jordyn's beam). Nevertheless, it is fun to see them and guess and surmise from them what the gymnast will bring to prelims. Albert at the all-around is doing a great job keeping track of d-scores, but only does the top 20 AA totals, and the top 20 on each, so a lot of the below are missing,
The known highest is Gabby. It's worth noting that her bars generally has a d-score of 6.5 or 6.4 in comp, must be a missed connection. Beam also is usually lower by more than a tenth. Romania's scores are varied, highest potential and highest in competition is shown.
Gabby Douglas, USA
Jordyn blah blah beam in doubt
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Beam: 6.4 (currently)
Aly is right behind. Bars obviously dragging her down, she would beat the other two if she had even Jordyn's bars
Aly Raisman, USA
Vika with an amanar brings huge difficulty. A DTY obviously hurts her bigtime. It is very very likely we will see the amanar anyway.Floor needs a boost, and that is definitely a possibility- 0.2 confirmed. Beam up by 0.2- WOW.
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Beam: 6.5 UPDATED
Total: 26.3 with amanar, 25.6 with DTY
Larisa will beat them all d-score wise IF she performs all of her potential upgrades and connects them all AND has the amanar. We know she has an amanar, and we know she missed her connections on beam and floor at the Romanian meet. She is the most in question, but she can bring it. The first score is the potential, the second is the highest competed- either pre-upgrades or with missed connections
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Bars: 6.5, 6.1
Vault: 6.5, 5.8
Floor: 6.7, 6.4
Beam: 6.9, 6.7
Total: 26.6, highest possible. Lowest possible is 25. With amanar but using other lowest scores- 25.7. Without amanar but using other highest scores- 25.9, the highest of everyone.
Either way, Larisa is a huge threat that shouldn't be dismissed. 26.6 would be awesome, 26 itself is probably the most realistic IN competition.
Yao Jinnan won bronze in the 2011 Worlds AA, even counting a fall from beam. Without the fall, she would have won and ended the controversy between Jordyn and Vika. Injured this year on a DTY, she is still expected to be a strong contender. However, it is highly unlikely she will bring the creme de la creme, the amanar.
Yao Jinnan, China
Bars: 6.8 7.2 rumoured!
Beam: 6.4 6.6 full potential UPDATE
Floor: Cannot find d-score. Her routine from worlds was a 6.0. The London test event looked watered down. We'll give her the benefit of the doubt with a 6.0
Total: Assuming 6.0 on floor and beam update, 25.2 25.6 with rumoured 7.2 bars and beam update
Aliya has been eclipsed by others, but is by no means out of the running. Her vault is unknown, she has a DTY but flinging an amanar is possible. I will do it for both. She is likely to at least attempt upgrades on beam and floor. UPDATE: amanar confirmed.
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Total:26.2 WOW Musty brings it with all of those updates. 25.9 with no floor upgrade, 25.7 without the beam upgrade either
Here's how some others stack up, including some who aren't actually in the running for AA.
Anastasia Grishina, Russia
Beam: 6.3 UPDATE 6.5
Total: 24.5 with 5.8 floor and 6.3 beam. 24.9 with all upgrades
Huang Qiushang, China
Total: 25.7 with all upgrades 25.4 without
McKayla Maroney, USA
Elizabeth Price, USA
Kyla Ross, USA
Total: 23.9 With amanar (unlikely) 24.6
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Bars: 5.8 (other possible d-score unknown)
Vault: 6.1 OR 6.5
Floor: 6.1 OR 6.5
Total: Lowest possible: 23.9 Highest possible: 24.7
Sarah Finnegan, USA
IN ORDER, using highest potential scores:
Larisa Iordache (26.6)
Viktoria Komova (26.3)
Aliya Mustafina (26.1)
Gabby Douglas (25.8)
Huang Qiushang (25.7)
Yao Jinnan (25.6)
Jordyn Wieber (25.5)
Aly Raisman (25.4)
Sarah Finnegan and Anastasia Grishina (24.8)
Elizabeth Price and Sandra Izbasa (24.7)
Kyla Ross (24.6)
McKayla Maroney (24.4)
The order for lowest potential and comp d-scores is too confusing now, and kind of hard because even with the Americans with their known d-scores have been falling short of them all year. It's more interesting to just do 'highest potential'. NOTE: This list changes if some of these upgrades don't happen (Yao Jinnan's 7.2 bars for one..) and also changes if connections don't happen- not only are Romanian floors in doubt, so are several beams AND Douglas' bars and beam. Of course, several of these gymnasts are headcases, so falls are always possible. This is NOT taking execution into account at all.
Very, very interesting. As we can see, the AA will be close- though less close if Iordache actually rocks all of those upgrades. Look at the depth of USA, Sarah Finnegan and Elizabeth Price have HUGE d-scores...as alternates! Here we have in black and white exactly why Kyla Ross has no hope of the AA, actually worse than I thought- McKayla beats her. D-scores are almost scarily high, we have one and quite possibly two beams out of a 6.9- the same as Shawn Johnson's 2008 very difficult beam, which counted two more elements!
EDIT: Woah big error with Gabby, who does NOT tie with Jordyn. She has several times due to missed connections, but her full potential puts her ahead.
MORE EDIT: All new upgrades and upgrade potential added.
EDIT 25/7- All monster Russian upgrades from training added