Saturday, 17 November 2012

2013 Worlds Predictions. Now updated July!

This post, and the July updates, were made before I realised that only three girls can compete each event in prelims. This wrecks my USA and Russia teams in particular. 
 
Is is too early? Yes but sure why not. I am going to attend it, hence excitement. Without further ado, though I'm not doing countries I'm not familiar enough with.

TEAMS PREDICTION

China

Yao Jinnan
Shang Chunsong
Zeng Siqi
Li Yiting

Alt: Huang Huidan, Wu Liufang and Jiang Tong

July update- Switch out Li Yiting for He Kexin or Tan Jiaxin

All-arounders will be Shang and Yao. Li Yiting for vault finals of course. Shang and Yao for bars finals, Zeng and Shang for beam finals, Shang and Yao to attempt for floor finals. A very nice team though quite a few upgrades needed for floor and AA contenders.

Russia

Evgeniya Shelgunova
Viktoria Komova
Aliya Mustafina
Maria Paseka

Alt: Yulia Tipaeva, Anna Rodionova, Ekaterina Baturina

July update- Switch Evgeniya Shelgunova for Ksenia Afanasyeva. I though Afan would have retired...Vika or Grishina for the second AA spot.

This is tough, and may be considerably wrong in the end. All- arounders will be Shelgunova and Mustafina. Not Komova because I have a gut feeling against that- she is always injured and has zero mental game. Shelgunova may well be the safer bet, she is underrated, but so assured and always does well. Paseka for vault finals, Komova and Mustafina for bars finals, and attempts made by all except Paseka for beam and floor finals. 

Romania

Diana Bulimar
Larisa Iordache
Stefanie Alina Stanila
Anna Maria Ocalisan

Alt: Raluca Haidu, Maria Rauta

July update- They're only using three spots. Take Stefanie and Anna Maria off and replace with Sandra Izbasa. Larisa and Diana for the AA. 

Hindered by the incredibly small senior national team and the fact their best juniors will still be juniors. Iordache and Stanila for the AA. Iordache for floor and beam finals, Bulimar for floor and beam finals. Ocalisan could well be replaced by a vault specialist- even Izbasa just for that if she is actually going to continue that long.

USA

Lexie Priessman
Simone Biles
Katelyn Ohashi
Kyla Ross

Alt: Sarah Finnegan, Elizabeth Price, Madison Desch

July update- Switch Lexie for McKayla Maroney and Katelyn for Brenna DowellSimone and either Kyla or Brenna for the AA.

WHAT a strong team. Priessman and Ross for the AA. Ohashi for bars and beam finals, Ross for bars and beam finals, Biles for floor and vault finals and Priessman for floor and vault finals. All bases covered.

Japan

Mai Murakami
Asuka Teramoto
Yuko Shintake
Risa Konishi

Alt: Wakana Inoue, Natsumi Sasada

July update- (actual team) Switch Yuko and Risa for Natsumi Sasada and Yu Minobe. Asuka and Natsumi for the AA.

This will be interesting. Murakami and Teramoto for the AA. Teramoto and Shintake for beam finals, Murakami for floor and maybe vault finals. Teramoto also for floor finals.

Britain

Gabby Jupp
Angel Romaeo
Rebecca Tunney
Niamh Rippin

Alt: Ruby Harrold, Imogen Cairns

July update- Ooooo. Gabby is injured, replace her with Hannah Whelan. Angel and Niamh are replaced with Becky Downie and Ruby Harrold who have a much higher chance of qualifying for a final.

Another very interesting potential team. Tunney and Jupp  for the AA. Jupp and Romaeo for beam finals. Tunney for an attempt to qualify to bars and floor finals. Rippin for an attempt to qualify for vault finals.

MEDAL PREDICTIONS

ALL-AROUND

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Lexie Priessman

July update-

1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache

Hmm, that was tough. A Mustafina with a potential Amanar and an upgraded beam is a big threat. Priessman has monster start values which could win out, but the scoring at the start of a quad tends to be harsh so I'm predicting her execution will suffer accordingly. Iordache is first not only for her high start values, but also her motivation after a crap Olympics. Ross I think will still have lower start values than the top 3 or 4 so that's why she's not appearing.


FLOOR

1. Mai Murakami
2. Simone Biles
3. Lexie Priessman

July update-

1. Ksenia Afanasyeva
2. Simone Biles
3. Diana Bulimar

I think the difficulty of these will mean Iordache and Moors will miss out. Another podium very open to correction.

BEAM

1. Zeng Siqi
2. Katelyn Ohashi
3. Larisa Iordache

July update-

1. Larisa Iordache
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Yao Jinnan

I'd love if this happened. I think Zeng's precision and execution would be able to win out over the higher difficulty of the other two.

BARS

1. Aliya Mustafina
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Katelyn Ohashi

July update-

1. Aliya Mustafina 
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Shang Chunsong

I am seeing Komova make a mistake here. Maybe I am just too gloomy and negative about her prospects, I will say I moreso see her struggling due to injury than her mental state.

VAULT

1. Li Yiting
2. Simone Biles
3. Hong Un Jong

July update-

1. McKayla Maroney
2. Simone Biles
3. Giulia Steingruber

Seeing as it's not even known that Simone will have a second vault by then, this is a bit optimistic. Hong if she lands both of her vaults will still have the difficulty to beat the other 5 I think. Li wins due to her great execution.




Feel free to disagree, we are of course a bit far out to really assess the state of the potential competitors. Fun nonetheless.








39 comments:

  1. No Raluca Haidu for Romania??

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    1. Much as I like her, she isn't good enough as an all-arounder or on one event to replace any of the others. I am going to switch my second all-arounder to Stanila though, she is doing better than Ocalisan recently.

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  2. Assuming Yao recovers well, I'm thinking that she'll be at Worlds, contesting for the AA and UB. :)
    Which means either Shang or, sadly, Wu will get taken out. I really hope Wu won't retire after the National Games. :(

    Shelgunova> Komova? Shelgunova needs to upgrade her DTY and FX and clean up execution on all accounts. I hope to finally see a healthy Komova vs. Mustafina AA battle. :)

    I predict VT to be NK, NK, and .. US?? Not too sure at all about other countries? Maybe Pena will land her Produnova! She has to.. at some point, right?

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    1. ** My implied question: would you mind explaining your bets for Shelgunova over Komova?

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    2. I fecking forgot about Yao Jinnan. Damn! I think Wu will be taken out then. It was already painful to leave Huang Huidan as an alternate but I'll edit that.

      The Komova/Shelgunova for AA is a gut feeling. Shelgunova is underrated, she is extremely steady, confident and gets good results. She has just won the Massilia AA, ahead of Russia's other favourite wunderkind Kharenkova. Komova is plagued by injuries and has zero mental game. I just don't see it, and again could we way off the mark. I certainly see her competing, but more as an own risk kind of thing for EF's.

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    3. So then Wu is out of Bars EF for you. Is Yao first or Mustafina? :)

      **I also think this is all very difficult to predict right now because we haven't seen ANYTHING from our injured gymnasts since London! You're going to have to update this quite frequently haha.

      PS: No predictions on VT yet?

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    4. Shouldn't really post when half asleep. Fixed! Nah I will leave this, then make another in September or so and compare the two. I wonder what the odds are that I wil get a podium right!

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  3. I think Kyla Ross could upgrade by then and possibly contend for an All-Around Medal.

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    1. I do have her contending, but just falling short of a medal due to the higher difficulty of the others. Her floor needs at least 0.5 more in difficulty, her bars having 0.4-0.5 more would be nice, her beam could do with 0.6 more to really push the boat out and then if she could get her amanar back she would really be unstoppable. I don't think she has an amanar in her and I don't want to see her try. Having a 5.8 vault could be damaging though. I absolutely see her upgrading, but I still her start values not reaching as high as the others and costing her in the end.

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  4. This is fun indeed considering not much is going on in gymnastics.

    I like your four for usa however if Kyla has upgraded then I see her and Kyla as AA Lexie for event finals on fx and vt. Same for simone. Finnegan and price would be alternates

    If komova,yao, Larissa , musty show up then this world aa will be awesome.

    I would be ok with the following podium line ups:

    AA
    Kyla
    Yao
    Katelyn

    Komova/kyla
    Kyla/komova
    larisa

    FX
    Lexie/Simone
    Simone/lexie
    Mai murikami

    Vt
    Lexie/Simone
    Simone/Lexie
    Nk gymnast

    UB
    Yao/Katelyn
    Katelyn/yao
    Komova

    BB
    Katelyn/larisa
    Larisa/Katelyn
    Russian gymnast?

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    1. I think Lexie and Kyla will be seen as more viable AA-ers than Katelyn. Certainly Katelyn's vault needs a lot of work, for me she is 50/50 at the moment and I think they may leave her as an extremely valuable BB/UB specialist.

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    2. You know watching Katelyn at junior nationals and pac rims I would have to agree with you about her being a beam bar specialist. However I believe Marta will be pushing her for the second AA spot. I cant imagine woga not having any more AA and instead just specialist.

      As for Vika sigh so much talent but lack of mental toughness. Im so hoping for a triple threat a healthy stronger grishina, healthy strong in shape musty, healthy injury free mentally tough vika. These three leading the new seniors into the new quad.

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    3. Grishina has recently switched coaches. Until she competes again I don't have enough of an insight into whether she can get back into it or is going to fade. So for the meantime I'm not going to factor her in.

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  5. Whoops for BB final lets add kyla

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  6. Why don't you think Komova will be a top AA contender?

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    1. It's a gut feeling. She is plagued by injuries and has zero mental game. I just get the feeling Russia may push Shelgunova instead, who is extremely assured in her work and always gets good results. Again, could obviously be wrong.

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  7. What about Hannah Whelan? She's not retired and wants to continue competing. I think she would be picked over Niamh Rippin (but that could just be personal, I don't particularly like her gymnastics). I'm also looking forward to seeing Becky Downie get back into competition shape. I think she could well be on the team, or at least an alternate.

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    1. I did have issues with the 4th spot. I was going to stick Ruby Harrold into it because that team is weak on bars, but then thought Niamh's vault might be more valuable. It's still quite iffy. I knew they both hadn't retired but I heard Hannah was taking a break. As for Downie, I wouldn't be able to make a decision on her until she is back in shape. But yes, the 4th place is very tenous. I might even chuck Angel out. But Tunney and Jupp are set in stone.

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  8. I am really pulling for both Iordache and Jinnan to make great comebacks after both having terrible Olympic performances. Iordache had the heel problem and everything seems to falter. Her weakness will remain Uneven Bars but I'm hoping it is way better than what we saw at either Europeans or Olympics. I'd count her in for floor final as well as she has some massive difficulty and if healthy should be able to get in those connection bonuses.

    Jinnan. Besides Uneven Bars she looked a completely different gymnast to 2011. If she can reproduce her DTY and beam difficulty and be clean on floor then she is very capable of taking the AA and getting into event finals.

    Mustafina is going to be interesting. She needs to rely less on twisting on floor. On Beam I think she should go the Ponor route where there isn't a lot of acrobatics but everything gets connected.

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  9. Why are you relegating Finnegan and Price to alternate? They did a great job at the Olympic Trials. Don't you think Marta would be looking to them to anchor the 2013 team since she knows they can perform under pressure and will have the international experience, (Price is going to Stuttgart and Glasgow).

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    1. Because they are not the best options. Price does not have a second vault, whereas Biles and Priessman are both training one. Biles is better than Price on vault, and could well end up being a better floor worker. As for all-around, Priessman would pick up a higher score there. Ohashi and Ross are desperately needed for bars and beam and for all around. Finnegan is very weak on bars and can't replace one of the others because her vault is weak enough and she also makes a not outstanding all arounder. Price is not good enough on bars or beam to be used there. There are only 4 spots and with the exception of Biles the others have a lot of experience.

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    2. Price recently mentioned training a second vault, can't remember where I saw it, maybe a gymnastike interview?? But still I agree that even then Biles should score higher, Priessman however I'm not sure about, I find her vaulting quite scary at times and she doesn't score as high in execution as the others.

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    3. Yes, I also heard that Price is training a second vault and she did an excellent job at Stuttgart and Glasgow, performing better at the second meet by more than a point and way out pacing the rest of the field. Three of her difficulty scores are 6 and higher, (beam is 5.8). Seems like she can really perform under pressure and she was there alone. The International community knows her now. If she keeps this up, people will expect to see her there. I think Marta would want someone like her on that team.

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    4. I'm not exactly sure how she scored better in Glasgow with a few obvious errors like on floor, when she seemed to be cleaner in Stuttgart. Could well be down to little things like handstands and what leaps they actually credited on beam I suppose. Bars are 6.6, vault is (just about still!) 6.5, not sure what floor is? She could upgrade floor easily and bring that up to the mid 6 range. bars are probably maxed out. Beam needs so.much.work but she has time. Second vault and lots of execution..

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  10. Don't count Izbasa out on vault and floor. She's training for 2013 EC and WC (I think her goal is to win a WC title before she retires).

    Also, go Mai Murakami! Just watched her fx from Japanese Nationals. Her d-score is 6.0 (correct me if I'm wrong), and that's with a fairly simple third pass and no code-whoring. She could easily get it up to the 6.3 range with a few adjustments. Her form on her tumbling is good too.

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    1. I think I'd have her in place of Ocalisan. At that point I thought she was going to retire, she certainly looks set now for at least this year- and that's what she has pretty much said in interviews- 2013 and then she'll take stock.

      This post is moreso fun at predicting sooo far in advance- 11ish months or so. I'll stick by my US team verbatim, and most of the others too. But the podiums already seem wrong- vault for instance- LYT has had issues and consistency problems recently. And the AA, I'm not overly confident in Iordache getting gold anymore, or Ohashi bronze on bars. But predicting is still a lot of fun.

      Yes and she will be at Jesolo! Can't wait. Not for the mad upgrades she trains (have you seen? Triple twisting double back, triple twisting double layout, quad spin on beam.. amongst others) but for more consistency.

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    2. I'm excited for Jesolo. When is it? I look forward to Mai winning gold on floor, and then dominating the 2013 WC and getting the Murakami named after her. What's the state of her vault? I've seen a YT video of produnovas into a pit, but I figure that she must do something a little more reliable as well (DTY?), especially since there's really no point in learning a Prod unless you plan to be a serious vaulter.

      And I read in some sort of interview (it looked credible) on the Romanian gym facebook that Diana Bulimar will be doing AA along with Larisa this year. Apparently she used to only have a FTY but it has been upgraded, presumably to a 1.5. Hopefully she'll grow a bit and be able to pull around a double by the fall. She's decent on bars and good on beam and floor, though needs upgrades on everything.

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    3. It's the 23-24th. Still more great meets this month- French world cup 16-17th and Chemnitz, the USA-ROM-GER meet on the 20th. Mai will have some strong competition- I'd imagine at least one of Lexie/Ebee/Simone will be there and Lexie's floor score is 6.7. There's also speculation Mykayla Skinner might go and her floor is ginormous as well. Mai has upgraded to a DTY. It scored high 14's last year at Stuttgart.

      Yes, though she's only doing beam at French world cup- very dissapointing! But it's not long from then til Euros where she would presumably be an anchor with Iordache. I'm kind of hoping it's a DTY. She's one of those endearing gymnasts you just wish tons of success for.

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    4. Chemnitz on the 30th I mean. Spain have pulled out since their coaching situation is a mess right now.

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    5. Jesolo's right around my birthday. A gold for Mai would be a great b-day present. (Gymgods, do you hear me?)

      I'm hoping for success for Bulimar as well. I like her better than Iordache, she seems to be a nice girl and I'm hoping she can have some individual success now that she's not overshadowed by her teammates. She really is so energetic and fun to watch! I have to keep reminding myself that she's actually seventeen, she looks so young!

      Too bad about Spain, they've really fallen to the wayside quite a bit since the '00-'04 quad where they won a handful of major medals.

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    6. It's right around my National holiday ha. I hope videos are uploaded super fast.

      Mai has enormous competition now Lexie and Simone are joining the already formiddable Iordache and Bulimar. I kind of hope someone beats Lexie to it, she does have the highest difficulty right now though..

      Yes, Didi is so endearing. I do love Iordache though.

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    7. Okay nevermind, I'm confusing events in my head, no Romanians at Jesolo. Still- USA are the ones to best in every event..

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    8. There is too much going on in March, I have confused Jesolo with LRSY now! The latter is the 16-17th, Jesoso is the 23-24th and Chemnitz is the 30th.

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  11. what about mckayla maroney?

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    1. She could take Lexie's 'place', especially if Lexie doesn't improve much by then or is injured. Technically Lexie is more valuable to the team since she's a stronger all-arounder and has an extremely difficult floor, 6.7. But I think if they have Simone, Katelyn and Kyla then they have the AA well covered and they can afford to take a floor/vault or even just vault specialist. Lexie vaulted an amanar/DTY 'illegal' combination at Jesolo, I've no idea if her second vault just isn't ready yet until she recovers or what but that's no good at worlds.

      At the moment IG have an interview with McKayla stating that she has vaulted a Yurchenko full and is working all four apparatus especially bars as they don't hurt her foot/leg which are still healing. 6 months is a long time in the gymnastics world but for someone to bounce back completely and have full competitive routines may be too ambitious.

      I do see the 4th spot being between the two of them and Ebee.

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  12. I see Wieber replacing either Ohashi or Priessman. Videos of her training have been published on gymnastike, she seems to have some of her old skills back and looks totally determined. There's a new fire in her eyes now...

    Ohashi is injured, she just had shoulder surgery, and this will most likely keep her out of the AA if not out of Worlds all together. Priessman's execution is a total mess, and she has been hammered for it.

    I hope that Jordyn and Simone can take the AA spots. Jordyn's best chance for a medal is AA, she has no standout event. It's funny because I used to dislike her and her gymnastics (mainly because she stole WC AA from Vika...), but after her huge disappointment and fight to regain her place I am rooting for her 100%.

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  13. I think Afanasyeva will either take Paseka's or Shelgunova's spot. Valentina Rodionenko said she has an amanar and as we all know, Ksenia is incredible strong on floor. I understand why you think Komova will possibly not even compete in the all around, but i really hope she proves everyone who thinks this wrong :) She is easily one of the three best gymnasts who are competing now and if she is healthy and doesn't make any mistakes, i think it will be really really hard to challenge her for the gold. Of course there was this big 'IF', but at least i hope she finally gets the gold she already should have won in in my opinion. I prefer the artistic style of gymnastics (russian routines and most of the romanian ones) but i like jordyn wieber a lot an i hope she makes the us team and most important: wins an individual medal :)

    does anyone know something about tatiana nabieva? does she have a chance on making it onto the team?

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  14. Ugh way too much Lexie...her gymnastics disgust me

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    1. She looked stronger then, I believe she's coming back from injury now. The Jesolo Lexie is not the one we saw as Junior AA Nat. Champion. It's funny how much has changed since I wrote this.

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