Tuesday, 26 March 2013

Euros Predictions

Hopefully they will turn out better than my worlds predictions, which were done nearly a year out and already look hilariously wrong. Anyway, I want to do this before more teams are formally named. This is similar to Euros, 4 per team. It's important to note that several people, including Wyomi Masela, Celine Van Gerner and Elizabeth Seitz have bowed out of Euros contention due to exams and other commitments.

Teams

Russia

This is easy, since the first three have already been named. The last is between Anna Dementyeva, Evgeniya Shelgunova and Ksenia Afanasyeva.


Aliya Mustafina AA
Anastasia Grishina AA
Maria Paseka VT
Ksenia Afanasyeva FX BB

A strong team, which should be able to take home quite a haul. At least one AA medal, hopefully two, same for UB and BB and potentially two on FX too if Aliya pulls out all the stops there. Not 'adding the DLO' kind of stops, but her Russian Championships routine with the pauses fixed could still score very well.

Romania

Romania are only down as bringing three gymnasts. That might change but I'll have to go with it for the moment.

Larisa Iordache AA
Diana Bulimar AA
Stefanie Stanila BB FX

The first two are no-brainers, but we haven't seen Larisa at all since London so it's hard to judge where she's at. On the team is a certainty, but beyond that.. As for Stanila, hopefully she has upgrades or she won't make any event finals. This will mainly be for experience because if Didi and Larisa are on form, she can't beat them. However, she is better than Ana Maria Ocalisan I think. I would be surprised if Diana Chelaru was ready in time, and I doubt Sandra Izbasa is too pushed about going. I think she will be worlds or nothing.

Britain

Gabby Jupp AA
Hannah Whelan AA
Niamh Rippin VT
Becky Downie UB

Since Rebecca Tunney is injured and hasn't competed at a single qualifying meet, I don't see her appearing. These four all performed and won titles at British Championships. Ruby Harrold has lost the bars spot due to her inconsistency with her new (incredible) bars routine. She has one more chance at Doha but she messed up twice with it. Becky has had issues with hers but she has gotten it together more times so..

Italy

Vanessa Ferrari AA
Elisa Meneghini AA
Serena Bugani VT
Elisabetta Preziosa BB

This is the one that will prove the most 'wrong' I think. Carlotta Ferlito, Georgia Campana and Erika Fasana stand greater chances than my last two, but since this is a specialist Euros and I think these two stand better medal chances, I'm going for them.

Netherlands and Switzerland have named their teams. New faces from outside the major teams will be Noemi Makra, Darya Matveyeva, Sophie Scheder, Roxana Popa and Tabea Alt along with old reliables Vasilliki Millousi, Marta Pihan-Kulezsa (if she is not injured, she had a balked routine recently), Dorina Boczogo and Mariya Livchikova.

All-around Qualifiers- Top 5

1. Aliya Mustafina
2. Anastasia Grishina
3. Diana Bulimar
4. Larisa Iordache (I know I know..but I think if she was fighting fit we would have seen her by now)
5. Gabby Jupp

Floor Qualifiers

1. Ksenia Afanasyeva
2. Diana Bulimar
3. Mariya Livchikova
4. Larisa Iordache
5. Aliya Mustafina
6. Elisa Meneghini
7. Gabby Jupp
8. Noel Van Klaveren


Vault Qualifiers

1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Maria Paseka
3. Noel van Klaveren
4. Niamh Rippin
5. Serena Bugani
6. Dorina Boczogo
7. Chantysha Netteb

And I'm lost. No Chuso, Berger, Izbasa or Masela..

Beam Qualifiers

1. Anastasia Grishina
2. Ksenia Afanasyeva
3. Diana Bulimar
4. Larisa Iordache
5. Gabby Jupp
6. Vasliliki Millousi
7. Elisabetta Preziosa
8. Mariya Livchikova (wobbles, low landing double pike)

Bars Qualifiers

1. Aliya Mustafina
2. Anastasia Grishina
3. Becky Downie
4. Sophie Scheder
5. Darya Matveyeva
6. Lisa Hill
7. Natalia Kononenko
8. Gabby Jupp

Podiums

All-around

1. Aliya Mustafina
2. Diana Bulimar
3. Larisa Iordache (Grishina has a bad landing on her vault and stumbles forward in her double double..)

Floor

1. Diana Bulimar
2. Ksenia Afanasyeva (OOB)
3. Mariya Livchikova

Vault

1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Maria Paseka
3. Noel Van Klaveren

Beam

1. Anastasia Grishina
2. Ksenia Afanasyeva
3. Mariya Livchikova (Perfect routine and Bulimar has a huge break)

Bars

1. Aliya Mustafina
2. Anastasia Grishina
3. Sophie Scheder (Sophie improves and Becky gets slaughtered for her handstands)

Well done girls! :P

Medal Table

Russia 7- 3 golds, 4 silver (Mustafina GG Grishina GS Afanasyeva SS Paseka S)
Romania 3- 1 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze (Bulimar GS, Iordache B)
Ukraine 2- 2 bronze (Livchikova BB)
Switzerland 1- 1 gold (Steingruber G)
Germany 1- 1 bronze (Scheder B)

So the most successful country is Russia and the most decorated gymnast is Aliya Mustafina. I know I might sound odd counting Larisa Iordache out as a major contender, but I just think if she had together and was ready to go, we'd know by now. I think I will be more right than wrong with these predictions but feel free to violently disagree!

And just in time, the nominative participant list was out when I woke up, here. I just mentioned in the comments that there are issues with the list- first, France has a WAG team when they have just stated they aren't bringing any. Janine Berger is on the list when it was said she will miss Euros. Hopefully her inclusion is up-to-date and that she's good to go. British Gymnastics have said they will be releasing on who they're sending tomorrow..so that could be different too. I am most surprised with the addition of Sandra Izbasa. She will shake up my floor and vault podiums nicely. It's great that she's in shape and ready to go, I thought she'd hold off until closer to Worlds really. Sad that it's at the expense of bringing a new senior for experience, or Dana Andrei. They should have utilised all four spots. Britain are putting all their eggs in the bars basket, they have three who could qualify. But nobody for vault, and they'd be lucky to get a floor spot too. An ideal opportunity for Niamh Rippin wasted, unless they change that lineup tomorrow. It's not that I don't love the exciting bars of Ruby Harrold and Becky Downie but I think it's better if they spread the love around a bit..

Ukraine also have a slightly surprising team listed. Mariya Livchikova was a given, and Darya Matveyeva after she placed second at Nationals. Giving new senior Olena Vasylieva more experience is admirable, but Angelina Kysla's place is a little confusing. I hope Vasylieva is improved on last year, when she stood out as being an enormous headcase. I really thought they would send Kristina Sankova who's strong on beam and floor, in place of Kysla and then Natalia Kononenko if she's healthy and hitting in place of Vasylieva. Ah well. Predictions are a mug's game.


 

5 comments:

  1. I wouldn't be surprised if this is at least 80% accurate.

    I hope so anyway.

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  2. I do hope Mustafina absolutely sweeps Euros

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  3. Nominative list is out!
    http://www.ueg.org/images/event/110/Nominative%20registration%20ECh%20MAG%20WAG%20Moscow%202013.pdf

    Izbasa named for Romanaia, Ruby Harrold for GBR as well as Becky Downie - UB is going to be interesting if they hit! Your Italy list was half right. Russia was a no brainer really after Shelgunova's rather poor showing recently, and Demy's lacklustre one as well, though Paseka really isn't the strongest of candidates.

    By the way my name is Rachel :)

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    1. I think that Italy picked fabulous team workers. They did not really focus on the specialist part. Quite a few surprises in that list- but it's not final and I'm going to debunk my list along with the results when it's over. France are now not sending any WAG, and Janine Berger was supposedly not going to be able to go, not sure what's happening there. I'm a bit surprised they're sending Ruby as well. They have 3 that could make bars finals, they'd be lucky to get one each into beam and floor..and nobody for vault. It's a missed opportunity to send Niamh I think. Much as I love Ruby's bars routine though.Although, BG themselves say they're announcing their team tomorrow, so they may make changes. There was enormous criticism over some of their London exclusions last year, they're not afraid to go against popular expectation, that's for sure.

      Ukraine's team is interesting. They're sending two new girls, one of whom was a gigantic headcase last year. I thought they would send Sankova, who could maybe get into beam/floor finals. Or Kononenko for bars if she's healthy/still training.

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  4. I actually think Aliya is a contender for beam too, at least in quals; she obviously has worked on beam more and improved quite a lot. She has a new routine which she seem to handle pretty well. Will have to wait and see.

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