Wednesday, 13 June 2012

What putting Nastia on the US team does to scores

This is assuming the most likely team of Jordyn, Aly, Gabby, Kyla and McKayla and is using their highest Nationals scores. Yes, this team score will be huge because of the overscoring but since all of them and Nastia were overscored, it makes little difference. The only one who wasn't is McKayla, who CAN get a 16.15 on vault internationally. This team assumes using Gabby on floor, but that depends on whether it can outscore McKayla's in prelims, assuming McKayla has a beautiful third pass.

UB: Jordyn, Gabby, Kyla- 46.4
BB: Jordyn, Aly, Kyla- 45.6
FX: Gabby, Jordyn, Aly- 46.35
VT: McKayla, Jordyn, Aly- 47.85

Team total- 186.2

Enter Nastia. Now because Kyla is competing Nastia's two events, we'll switch them. Firstly using Nastia's actual highest scores from Nationals.

UB: Jordyn, Gabby, Nastia- 44.55
BB: Jordyn, Aly, Nastia- remains unchanged, 45.6

Combined with floor and vault gives..184.35, almost two points lower. In a sport of tenths seperating winners, obviously this format is unusable. But let's be fair and assume Nastia did an alright job on bars, using an easier dismount than her old one and with form errors, but not as disastrous as what we actually saw. We'll also give her beam a realistic score, assuming no errors besides missed connections. Hypothetical bars score: 14.4 Hypothetical beam score: 14.7

This gives a team score of 184.7, only a bit better. Now let's be REALLY generous and assume Nastia really nailed her bars and had no missed beam connections and then was overscored on top of that. We'll give her beam and bars a 15.

Team score: 185.6 I have to admit I was a bit shocked at that, thought it might close the gap more. She needs to manufacture 6.05 more tenths. She can't do that. I really admire her gymnastics of old and for her to make a pretty brave comeback. But the admiration ends there after the free pass to trials and the realisation that she absolutely cannot help this team whatsoever, even assuming impossible scoring. Give it up already.

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