I used to think it was guaranteed, but it's a two horse race now, with a strong third chasing on their heels. The first is Jordyn's barring injury.
Aly Raisman I thought she had this in the bag last year. Her difficulty has actually increased and her floor and beam are great and will score well. She has a glaring weakness which is of course bars. This will score mid-13's at best, it really is brutal execution-wise. There really does seem to be a seperate bars scoring for her. That was great...for Aly. She always manages to stay on, which I think is the main objective but wow, it will get slaughtered in London. Her vault is dangerous, badly landed, not fully around and with crappy leg form at every point of the vault. It deserves maybe a 15.4 being generous, though possibly lower. She's a magnificent beam worker, so strong and steady on it with great skills. Her form isn't great on it though which will incur deductions but I bet the fact that it has no flow and that the low-to-beam work is just thrown in perfunctorily won't affect the score. On to her best, floor. Love love love the tumbling and the choreo is very clever. Again, her form will be penalised, and her non-existing toepoint, certainly won't get near a 15.8. She is great, but her form does deserve to get shot down and I question whether her strengths are enough to make up for her weaknesses when you have such a gymnast as
Gabby Douglas nipping at your heels. Gabby has great lines and difficulty, but inconsistency is her major weakness, the opposite to Aly's rock solid routines. Like the other two, she has an amanar and it isn't bad. It will score higher than Aly's, if she hits it which isn't a given. Her bars are great with a huge SV and she never misses there, this bumps her up massively ahead of Aly. beam can take her right back down again, she usually has major wobbles on it and has often either fallen or grabbed the beam. It's not as good as Aly's when she hits but won't take her significantly down score-wise. Floor is a bit unknown scoring-wise. Difficulty is below Aly's, but her tumbling is great. Unfortunately the choreo is pretty bad, and scrappy. The music may also do her no favours at all. Despite this, if she hits, the spot is hers.
Kyla Ross has been touted as an AA threat, but it's not even certain Marta would allow her when her vault is dangerous and her floor has such a low SV. Her DTY is beautiful but it puts her at a .7 disadvantage straight off, which she also has or even more compared to Aly's floor! She is likely to throw the amanar and throw is the correct word, her landings are so dangerous that her score could easily be better on the DTY. Beam and bars are great, but won't surpass the efforts of the other two (Gabby's bars only, not Aly's). Floor just falls too far behind for her to threaten the other two and it's such a shame. Just throw in some leaps out of passes, anything to make it approach a 6.0!
So, I see Jordyn and Gabby taking on Aliya, Viktoria, Larissa and Diana. May the best gymnast win!